Legacy product - no abstract available

Legacy product - no abstract available

An assumption of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is that within each source zone the random earthquakes of the past are considered a good predictor of future seismicity. Random earthquakes suggest a Poisson process. If the source zone does not follow a Poisson process then the resulting PSHA might not be valid. The tectonics of a region will effect its spatial distributions. Earthquakes occurring on a single fault, or uniformly distributed, or clustered or random will each have a distinctive spatial distribution. Here we describe a method for both identifying and delineating earthquake clusters and then characterising them. We divide the region into N cells and by counting the number of earthquakes in each cell we obtain a distribution of the number of cells versus the number of earthquakes per cell. This can then be compared to the theoretical Poisson distribution. Areas which deviate from the theoretical Poisson distribution, can then be delineated. This suggests a statistically robust method for determining source zones. Preliminary results suggest that areas of clustering (eg. SWSZ) can also be modelled as a Poisson process which differs from the larger regional Poisson process. The effect of aftershocks and swarms are also investigated.

Legacy product - no abstract available

The recently released ISC-GEM catalogue was a joint product of the International Seismological Center (ISC) and the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). In a major undertaking it collated, from a very wide range of sources, the surface and body wave amplitude-period pairs from the pre digital era; digital MS, mb and Mw; collated Mw values for 970 earthquakes not included in the Global CMT catalogue; used these values to determine new non-linear regression relationship between MS and Mw and mb and Mw. They also collated arrival picks, from a very wide range of sources, and used these to recompute the location, initially using the EHB location algorithm then revised using the ISC location algorithm (which primarily refined the depth). The resulting catalogues consists of 18871 events that have been relocated and assigned a direct or indirect estimate of Mw. Its completeness periods are, Ms - 7.5 since 1900, Ms - 6.25 1918 and Ms - 5.5 1960. This catalogue assigns, for the first time, an Mw estimate for several Australian earthquakes. For example the 1968 Meckering earthquake the original ML, mb and MS were 6.9, 6.1 and 6.8, with empirical estimates of Mw being 6.7 or 6.8. The ISC-GEM catalogue assigns an Mw of 6.5. We will present a poster of the Australian events in this ISC_GEM catalogue showing, where available, the original ML, mb, Ms, the recalculated mb and Ms, and the assigned Mw. We will discuss the implications of this work for significant Australian earthquakes.

The aim of the NPE10 exercise is the continuation of the multi - technology approach started with NPE09. For NPE10, a simulated release of radionuclides was the trigger for the scenario in which an REB-listed seismo-acoustic event with ML between 3.0 and 4.8 was the source. Assumptions made were: A single seismo-acoustic signal-generating underground detonation event with continuous leak of noble gas, radionuclide detections only from simulated release. Using atmospheric transport modelling the IDC identified 48 candidate seismo-acoustic events from data fusion of the seismo-acoustic REBs with radionuclide detections. We were able to reduce the number of candidate seismo-acoustic point sources from 48 to 2 by firstly rejecting events that did not appear consistently in the data fusion bulletins; secondly, reducing the time-window under consideration through analysis of xenon isotope ratios; and thirdly, by clustering the remaining earthquakes and aftershocks and applying forward tracking to these (clustered) candidate events, using the Hy-split and ARGOS modelling tools. The two candidate events that were not screened by RN analysis were Wyoming REB events 6797924 (23-Oct) and 6797555 (24-Oct). Event 6797555 was identified as an earthquake on the basis of depth (identification of candidate depth phases at five teleseismic stations); regional Pn/Lg and mb:Ms - all indicating an earthquake source. Event 6797924, however, was not screened and from our analysis would constitute a candidate event for an On-Site Inspection under the Treaty.

This final paper for the session presents the results of the new draft earthquake hazard assessment for Australia and compares them to the previous AS1170.4 hazard values. Draft hazard maps will be presented for several spectral periods (0.0, 0.2 and 1.0 s) at multiple return periods (500, 2500 and 10,000 years). These maps will be compared with both the current earthquake hazard used in AS1170.4 and with other assessments of earthquake hazard in Australia. In general the hazard in the draft map is higher in the western cratonic parts of Australia than it is in the eastern non-cratonic parts of Australia. Where regional source zones are included, peaks in hazard values in the map are generally comparable to those in the current AS1170.4 map. When seismicity 'hotspot zones are included, as described in the previous paper, several of them produce much higher hazard peaks than any in the AS1170.4 map. However, such hotspots do not affect as large an area as many of those in the current AS1170.4 map. Finally, hazard curves for different cities will also be presented and compared to those predicted by the method outlined in AS1170.4.

Geoscience Australia has recently released the 2012 version of the National Earthquake Hazard Map of Australia. Among other applications, the map is a key component of Australia's earthquake loading code AS1170.4. In this presentation we will provide an overview of the new maps and how they were put together. The new maps take advantage of the significant improvements in both the data sets and models used for earthquake hazard assessment in Australia since the current map in AS1170.4 was produced. These include: - An additional 20+ years of earthquake observations - Improved methods of declustering earthquake catalogues and calculating earthquake recurrence - Ground motion prediction equations (i.e. attenuation equations) based on observed strong motions instead of intensity - Revised earthquake source zones - Improved maximum magnitude earthquake estimates based on palaeoseismology - The use of open source software for undertaking probabilistic seismic hazard assessment which promotes testability and repeatability Hazard maps will be presented for a range of response spectral acceleration (RSA) periods between 0.0 and 1.0s and for multiple return periods between a few hundred to a few thousand years. These maps will be compared with the current earthquake hazard map in AS1170.4. For a return period of 500 years, the hazard values in the 0.0s RSA period map were generally lower than the hazard values in the current AS1170.4 map. By contrast the 0.2s RSA period hazard values were generally higher.

Legacy product - no abstract available

The first RSTT model for Australia has been developed based on the Australian Seismological Reference Model (AuSREM) that was released in late 2012. The densely-gridded P and S wave distributions of the crust and upper mantle of AuSREM have been simplified and translated into the 7 layer crustal and upper mantle RSTT model. Travel times computed with this RSTT model are evaluated against travel times computed in full 3D through the AuSREM model to assess the impact of the approximations used by RSTT. Location estimates of 5 ground truth earthquakes (GT1, GT2 and GT5) using the global ak135 reference model, the RSTT model and the full 3D travel times are compared. It is found that the RSTT model can reproduce the 3D travel times fairly accurately within its distance of applicability, thereby improving location estimates compared to using a global travel time model like ak135. However the benefit of using RSTT for locating Australian earthquakes is far less than using full 3D travel times, mainly because most stations tend to be further away from the source than the distance of RSTT applicability.