We report on an assessment of severe wind hazard across the Australian continent, and severe wind risk to residential houses (quantified in terms of annualised loss). A computational framework has been developed to quantify both the wind hazard and risk due to severe winds, based on innovative modelling techniques and application of the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS). A combination of tropical cyclone, synoptic and thunderstorm wind hazard estimates is used to provide a revised estimate of the severe wind hazard across Australia. The hazard modelling utilises both 'current-climate information and also simulations forced by IPCC SRES climate change scenarios, which have been employed to determine how the wind hazard will be influenced by climate change. We have also undertaken a national assessment of localised wind speed modifiers including topography, terrain and the built environment (shielding). It is important to account for these effects in assessment of risk as it is the local wind speed that causes damage to structures. The effects of the wind speed modifiers are incorporated through a statistical modification of the regional wind speed. The results from this current climate hazard assessment are compared with the hazard based on the existing understanding as specified in the Australian/New Zealand Wind Loading Standard (AS/NZS 1170.2, 2002). Our analysis has identified regions where the design wind speed depicted in AS/NZS 1170.2 is significantly lower than 'new' hazard analysis. These are regions requiring more immediate attention regarding the development of adaptation options including consideration by the wind loading standards committee for detailed study in the context of the minimum design standards in the current building code regulations.

The National Wind Risk Assessment (NWRA) has developed a computational framework to evaluate both the wind hazard and risk due to severe wind gusts. A combination of tropical cyclone, synoptic and thunderstorm wind hazard estimates is used to provide a revised estimate of severe wind hazard across Australia. A national assessment of localised wind speed modifiers including topography, terrain and the built environment (shielding), has also been undertaken to inform the local wind speed hazard that causes damage to structures. Wind speed modifiers are incorporated through a statistical modification of the regional wind speed. The regional hazard modelling utilises both current-climate information and also simulations forced by IPCC SRES climate change scenarios, which are employed to determine how wind hazard will be influenced by climate change. We report on a national assessment of severe wind impact and risk to residential housing (quantified in terms of annualised loss). Results from the current climate regional wind hazard assessment are compared with the hazard based on the existing understanding as specified in the Australian/New Zealand Wind Loading Standard (AS/NZS 1170.2, 2011). Regions where the design wind speed depicted in AS/NZS 1170.2 is significantly lower than the hazard analysis provided by this study were mapped. These regions are discussed in the context of the minimum design standards in the building code regulations, where the development of adaptation options is likely.

We describe a new framework for quantitative bushfire risk assessment that has been produced in the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre's (Bushfire CRC) research program. The framework is aimed at assisting state of the art fire research in Australia and fire risk managers in state and territory governments. There is a need for improved bushfire risk information to address the recommendations on bushfire risk management from the inquiries held after disastrous fires in the past decade. Quantitative techniques will improve this risk information however quantitative bushfire risk assessment is in its infancy in Australia. We use the example of calculating house damage and loss to describe the elements of the framework. The framework builds upon the well-defined processes in the Australian Risk Management standard (AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009) and the National Emergency Risk Assessment Guidelines.

Disaster management is most effective when it is based on evidence. Evidence-based disaster management means that decision makers are better informed, and the decision making process delivers more rational, credible and objective disaster management outcomes. To achieve this, fundamental data needs to be translated into information and knowledge, before it can be put to use by the decision makers as policy, planning and implementation. Disaster can come in all forms: rapid and destructive like earthquakes and tsunamis, or gradual and destructive like drought and climate change. Tactical and strategic responses need to be based on the appropriate information to minimise impacts on the community and promote subsequent recovery. This implies a comprehensive supply of information, in order to establish the direct and indirect losses, and to establish short and long term social and economic resilience. The development of the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) is a significant national project being undertaken by Geoscience Australia (GA). NEXIS collects, collates, manages and provides the information required to assess multi-hazard impacts. Exposure information may be defined as a suite of information relevant to all those involved in a natural disaster, including the victims, the emergency services, and the policy and planning instrumentalities.

Extreme events in a changing climate A climate event is 'extreme' when it (or a series of events) occurs with greater intensity, frequency or duration than is normally expected. Every region of the world experiences extreme events from time to time and natural climate variability already produces extreme events in Tasmania. This includes heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts and storms. Extreme events can have devastating and wide ranging effects on society and the environment, impacting infrastructure, agriculture, utilities, water resources and emergency planning.

This presentation will provide an overview of some of the work currently being undertaken at Geoscience Australia GA) as part of the National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (NCVA), funded by the Department of Climate Change (DCC). The presentation will summarise the methodology applied, and highlight the issues, including the limitations and data gaps.

The Rapid Inventory Collection System (RICS) is a vehicular data collection system (image and GPS) used for building/infrastructure damage and inventory assessment. The system consists of Ethernet cameras attached to a tripod mounted on a motor vehicle, a GPS receiver and software written in C++. The RICS data was used by the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission for the impact assessment (field survey) which quantified the extent and severity of the damage caused by the fire-storm.

Severe wind accounts for about 40 percent of the total number of buildings damaged by natural disasters in Australia during the 20th Century. Climate change has the potential to significantly affect severe wind hazard and the resulting level of economic loss. We describe a computational framework that has been developed to quantify both the wind hazard and risk due to severe winds. The nationally consistent assessment of severe wind hazard and risk (residential buildings only) is based on innovative modeling techniques, heuristic wind vulnerability assessments and application of Geoscience Australia's National Exposure Information System (NEXIS). We have applied new modelling and analysis techniques to develop a revised understanding of the regional wind hazard across Australia. This modelling has enabled the development of a wind hazard map for the Australian region. Regional wind hazard has been assessed by utilising statistical-parametric models, dynamical downscaling and spatial interpolation techniques allowing the derivation of estimates of wind hazard from three different phenomena - tropical cyclones, thunderstorms and synoptic storms. Across much of the interior of the country, the revised estimates of regional wind speeds are comparable to the regional wind speeds specified in the existing Australian - New Zealand wind loading standard (AS/NZS 1170.2 2010), generally to within 10 percent for the design wind speeds (500-year return period gust wind hazard). The regional wind speeds derived in AS/NZS 1170.2 were determined from analysis of long-term records (observations) of daily maximum gust wind speeds.

Climate change is expected to increase severe wind hazard in many regions of the Australian continent with consequences for exposed infrastructure and human populations. The objective of this study is to provide a nationally consistent assessment of wind risk under current climate and to provide preliminary indications of the effects (impact) of future hazard under several climate change scenarios. This is being undertaken by considering wind hazard, infrastructure exposure and wind vulnerability of infrastructure (residential buildings). The National Wind Risk Assessment (NWRA) will identify communities subject to high wind risk under present climate, and which will be most susceptible to any climate change related exacerbation of local wind hazard. While there is significant uncertainty on what the likelihood of extreme winds will be in the future, the understanding of current local wind hazard for the Australian region is also in need of improvement. Australian wind hazard is based on the statistical analysis of extreme wind observations and engineering judgement. Observations include peak 3-second gusts captured at about 30 meteorological measurement stations, mainly located at significant city and regional airports. These provide poor spatial representation with regard to wind hazard. This study is taking advantage of modelled wind hazard assessments (current climate) being developed at Geoscience Australia utilising separate techniques for the three main wind hazards: tropical cyclones; thunderstorms; and synoptic winds. A stochastic model based on observed and modelled cyclone tracks is used to obtain an understanding of cyclonic wind hazard. Two statistical approaches involving observed and modelled vertical instability and mean wind speed fields (via high-resolution regional climate model) are the basis for the thunderstorm and synoptic wind hazard.

In order to calibrate earthquake loss models for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, two databases have been developed: an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate to strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently contains over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by merging Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. Two applications of EXPO-CAT are illustrated: i) a simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; ii) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We find only limited quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Finally, we combine all the Atlas ShakeMaps to produce a global map of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) observed in the past 35 years, and compare this composite ShakeMap with existing global hazard models. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global and regional hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard.