A postcard providing an overview of the marine ecology programme at Geoscience Australia

We have developed a Building Fire Impact Model to evaluate the probability that a building located in a peri-urban region of a community is affected/destroyed by a forest fire. The methodology is based on a well-known mathematical technique called Event Tree (ET) modeling, which is a useful graphical way of representing the dependency of events. The tree nodes are the event itself, and the branches are formed with the probability of the event happening. If the event can be represented by a discrete random variable, the number of possible realisations of the event and their corresponding probability of occurring, conditional on the realisations of the previous event, is given by the branches. As the probability of each event is displayed conditional on the occurrence of events that precede it in the tree, the joint probability of the simultaneous occurrence of events that constitute a path is found by multiplication (Hasofer et al., 2007). BFIM contains a basic implementation of the main elements of bushfire characteristics, house vulnerability and human intervention. In the first pass of the BFIM model, the characteristics of the bushfire in the neighboring region to the house is considered as well as the characteristics of the house and the occupants of the house. In the second pass, the number of embers impacting on the house is adjusted for human intervention and wind damage. In the third pass, the model examines house by house conditions to determine what houses have been burnt and their impact on neighboring houses. To illustrate the model application, a community involved in the 2009 Victorian bushfires has been studied and the event post-disaster impact assessment is utilized to validate the model outcomes. MODSIM 2013 Conference

Abstract: Land Surface Temperature (Ts) is an important boundary condition in many land surface modelling schemes. It is also important in other application areas such as, hydrology, urban environmental monitoring, agriculture, ecological and bushfire monitoring. Many studies have shown that it is possible to retrieve Ts on a global scale using thermal infrared data from satellites. Development of standard methodologies that generate Ts products routinely would be of broad benefit to the application of remote sensing data in areas such as hydrology and urban monitoring. AVHRR and MODIS datasets are routinely used to deliver Ts products. However, these data have 1km spatial resolution, which is too coarse to detect the detailed variation of land surface change of concern in many applications, especially in heterogeneous areas. Higher resolution thermal data from Landsat is a possible option in such cases. To derive Ts, two scientific problems need to be resolved: to remove the atmospheric effects and derive surface brightness temperature (TB) and to separate the emissivity and Ts effects in the surface brightness temperature (TB). To derive TB, for single thermal band sensors such as, Landsat 5, 7 and (due to a faulty dual-band thermal instrument) on Landsat-8, the split window methods, such as those used for NOAAAVHRR data (Becker & Li, 1990), and the day/night pairs of thermal infrared data in several bands, as used for MODIS (Wan et al., 2002) are not available for correcting atmospheric effects. The retrieval of surface brightness temperature TB from Landsat data therefore needs more care, as the accuracy of the TB retrieval depends critically on the ancillary data, such as atmospheric water vapour data (precipitable water). In this paper, a feasible operational method to remove the atmospheric effects and retrieve surface brightness temperature from Landsat data is presented. The method uses the MODTRAN 5 radiative transfer model and global atmospheric profile data sets, such as NASA MERRA (The Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) atmospheric profiles, NOAA NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis product and ECMWF (The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) to correct for the atmospheric effects. The results derived from the global atmospheric profiles are assessed against the TB product estimated by using (accurate) ground based radiosonde data (balloon data). The results from this study have found: The global data sets NCEP1, NCEP2, MERRA and ECMWF can all generally give satisfactory TB products and can meet the levels of accuracy demanded by many practitioners, such as 1º K. Among global data sets, ECMWF data set performs best. The root mean square difference (RMSD) for the 9 days and 3 test sites are all within 0.4º K when compared with the TB products estimated using ground radiosonde measurements.

The Walloon Coal Measures (WCM) in the Clarence-Moreton and the Surat basins in Qld and northern NSW contain up to approximately 600 m of mudstone, siltstone, sandstone and coal. Wide-spread exploration for coal seam gas (CSG) within both basins has led to concerns that the depressurisation associated with the resource development may impact on water resources in adjacent aquifers. In order to predict potential impacts, a detailed understanding of sedimentary basins hydrodynamics that integrates geology, hydrochemistry and environmental tracers is important. In this study, we show how different hydrochemical parameters and isotopic tracers (i.e. major ion chemistry, dissolved gas concentrations, 13C-DIC, 18O, 87Sr/86Sr, 3H, 14C, 2H and 13C of CH4) can help to improve the knowledge on groundwater recharge and flow patterns within the coal-bearing strata and their connectivity with over- or underlying formations. Dissolved methane concentrations in groundwaters of the WCM in the Clarence-Moreton Basin range from below the reporting limit (10 µg/L) to approximately 50 mg/L, and samples collected from nested bore sites show that there is also a high degree of vertical variability. Other parameters such as groundwater age measurements collected along distinct flow paths are also highly variable. In contrast, 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios of WCM groundwaters are very uniform and distinct from groundwaters contained in other sedimentary bedrock units, suggesting that 87Sr/86Sr ratios may be a suitable tracer to study hydraulic connectivity of the Walloon Coal Measures with over- or underlying aquifers, although more studies on the systematic are required. Overall, the complexity of recharge processes, aquifer connectivity and within-formation variability confirms that a single tracer that cannot provide all information necessary to understand aquifer connectivity in these sedimentary basins, but that a multi-tracer approach is required.

The Australian Flood Risk Information Portal (the portal) is an initiative of the Australian Government, established following the devastating floods across Eastern Australia in 2011. The portal is a key component of the National Flood Risk Information Project (NFRIP), and aims to provide a single point of access to Australian flood information. Currently much of Australia's existing flood information is dispersed across disparate sources, making it difficult to find and access. The portal will host data and tools that allow public discovery, visualisation and retrieval of flood studies, flood maps, satellite derived water observations and other related information, all from a single location. The portal will host standards and guidelines for use by jurisdictions and information custodians to encourage best practice in the development of new flood risk information. While the portal will initially host existing flood information, the architecture has been designed to allow the portal content to grow over time to meet the needs of users. The aim is for the portal to display data for a range of scenarios from small to extreme events, though this will be dependent on stakeholder contributions. Geoscience Australia's Australian Flood Studies Database is the portal's data store of flood study information. The database includes metadata created through a purpose-built data entry application, and over time, information harvested from state-operated catalogues. For each entry the portal provides a summary of the flood study, including information on how the study was done, what data was used, what flood maps were produced and for what scenarios, as well as details on the custodian and originating author. If the study included an assessment of damage, details such as estimates of annual average damage, or the number of properties affected during a flood of a particular likelihood will also be included. During the last phase of development downloadable flood study reports and their associated flood maps have been added to the portal where available. As the portal is populated it will increasingly host mapped flood data, or link to flood data and maps held in authoritative databases hosted by State and Territory bodies. Mapping data to be made accessible through the portal will include flood extents and to a lesser degree information on water depths. The portal will also include water observations obtained from Geoscience Australia's historic archive of Landsat imagery. This data will show whether a particular location was 'wet' at some point during the past 30 years. While this imagery does not necessarily represent the peak of a flood or show water depth, the data will support the validation and verification process of hydrologic and hydraulic flood modelling. This work will prove useful particularly in rural areas where there is little or no flood information. The portal also provides flood information custodians with the ability to either upload mapped data directly to the portal or to make this data accessible via web services. Data management tools and standards, developed through NFRIP, will enable data custodians to map their data to agreed standards for delivery through the portal. A portal framework and supporting principles has been developed to guide the maintenance and development of the portal.

Here we report on the results of a study undertaken in the Flinders Commonwealth Marine Reserve (southeast Australia) designed to test the benefits of two approaches to characterising shelf habitats: (i) MBES mapping of a continuous (~30 km2) area selected on the basis of its potential to include a range of representative seabed habitats , versus; (ii) a novel approach that uses targeted mapping of a greater number of smaller, but spatially balanced, locations using a Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified sample design. We present the first quantitative estimates of habitat type on the shelf of the Flinders reserve, using both survey approaches, based on three MBES analysis techniques. We contrast the quality of information that both survey approaches offer in combination with the three MBES analysis methods. We then consider the implications for future inventory of benthic habitats in shelf environments in the context of monitoring extensive offshore marine reserves.

Surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) correction is important for time series based analysis, such as dynamic landcover mapping and monitoring climate change etc. It is thus important to understand characteristics of BRDF and its variation under different cover and climate conditions and its seasonal and annual variation. Many studies suggested that BRDF is related to the characteristics of landcover types, vegetation structure (height and cover) and climate patterns. In this study, 10 years of MODIS BRDF data sets (MOD43A1) from 2001 to 2011 are used to conduct the analysis using landcover data in Australia derived in the same period. The study found that BRDF spectral shape is strongly correlated with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), but BRDF shape varies significantly between landcover classes, vegetation structure and climate regions. Intra-annual variation of BRDF spectral shape is stronger than the inter-annual variation and seasonal patterns of spectral BRDF shape are different from those of NDVI.

Monitoring is a regulatory requirement for all carbon dioxide capture and geological storage (CCS) projects to verify containment of injected carbon dioxide (CO2) within a licensed geological storage complex. Carbon markets require CO2 storage to be verified. The public wants assurances CCS projects will not cause any harm to themselves, the environment or other natural resources. In the unlikely event that CO2 leaks from a storage complex, and into groundwater, to the surface, atmosphere or ocean, then monitoring methods will be required to locate, assess and quantify the leak, and to inform the community about the risks and impacts on health, safety and the environment. This paper considers strategies to improve the efficiency of monitoring the large surface area overlying onshore storage complexes. We provide a synthesis of findings from monitoring for CO2 leakage at geological storage sites both natural and engineered, and from monitoring controlled releases of CO2 at four shallow release facilities - ZERT (USA), Ginninderra (Australia), Ressacada (Brazil) and CO2 field lab (Norway).

Wind multipliers are factors that transform regional wind speeds into local wind speeds, accounting for the local effects which include topographical, terrain and shielding influences. Wind multipliers have been successfully utilized in various wind related activities such as wind hazard assessment (engineering building code applications), event-based wind impact assessments (tropical cyclones), and also national scale wind risk assessment. The work of McArthur in developing the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI: Luke and McArthur, 1978) indicates that the contribution of wind speed to the FFDI is about 45% of the magnitude, indicating the importance of determining an accurate local wind speed in bushfire hazard and spread calculations. For bushfire spread modeling, local site variation (@ 100 metre and also 25 metre horizontal resolution) have been considered through the use of wind multipliers, and this has resulted in a significant difference to the currently utilized regional '10 metre height' wind speed (and further to the impact analysis). A series of wind multipliers have been developed for three historic bushfire case study areas; the 2009 Victorian fires (Kilmore fire), the 2005 Wangary fire (Eyre Peninsula), and the 2001 Warragamba - Mt. Hall fire (Western Sydney). This paper describes the development of wind multiplier computation methodology and the application of wind multipliers to bushfire hazard and impact analysis. The efficacy of using wind multipliers within a bushfire spread hazard model is evaluated by considering case study comparisons of fire extent, shape and impact against post-disaster impact assessments. The analysis has determined that it is important to consider wind multipliers for local wind speed determination in order to achieve reliable fire spread and impact results. From AMSA 2013 conference

This presentation will provide an overview of geological storage projects and research in Australia.