This paper presents a model to assess bushfire hazard in south-eastern Australia. The model utilises climate model simulations instead of observational data. Bushfire hazard is assessed by calculating return periods of the McArthur Forest Fires Danger Index (FFDI). The return periods of the FFDI are calculated by fitting an extreme value distribution to the tail of the FFDI data. The results have been compared against a spatial distribution of bushfire hazard obtained by interpolation of FFDI calculated at a number of recording stations in Australia. The results show that climate simulations produce a similar pattern of bushfire hazard than the interpolated observations but the simulated values tend to be up to 60% lower than the observations. This study shows that the major source of error in the simulations is the values of wind speed. Observational wind speed is recorded at a point-based station whilst climate simulated wind speed is averaged over a grid cell. On the other hand FFDI calculation is very sensitive to wind speed and hence to improve the calculation of FFDI using climate simulations it is necessary to correct the bias observed in the simulations. A statistically-based procedure to correct the simulation bias has been developed in this project. Bias-corrected calculation of FFDI shows that the major bushfire hazard in south-eastern Australia is in the western parts of SA and NSW; and in south-western Tasmania.

The Australian Flood Risk Information Portal (the portal) is an initiative of the Australian Government, established following the devastating floods across Eastern Australia in 2011. The portal is a key component of the National Flood Risk Information Project (NFRIP), and aims to provide a single point of access to Australian flood information. Currently much of Australia's existing flood information is dispersed across disparate sources, making it difficult to find and access. The portal will host data and tools that allow public discovery, visualisation and retrieval of flood studies, flood maps, satellite derived water observations and other related information, all from a single location. The portal will host standards and guidelines for use by jurisdictions and information custodians to encourage best practice in the development of new flood risk information. While the portal will initially host existing flood information, the architecture has been designed to allow the portal content to grow over time to meet the needs of users. The aim is for the portal to display data for a range of scenarios from small to extreme events, though this will be dependent on stakeholder contributions. Geoscience Australia's Australian Flood Studies Database is the portal's data store of flood study information. The database includes metadata created through a purpose-built data entry application, and over time, information harvested from state-operated catalogues. For each entry the portal provides a summary of the flood study, including information on how the study was done, what data was used, what flood maps were produced and for what scenarios, as well as details on the custodian and originating author. If the study included an assessment of damage, details such as estimates of annual average damage, or the number of properties affected during a flood of a particular likelihood will also be included. During the last phase of development downloadable flood study reports and their associated flood maps have been added to the portal where available. As the portal is populated it will increasingly host mapped flood data, or link to flood data and maps held in authoritative databases hosted by State and Territory bodies. Mapping data to be made accessible through the portal will include flood extents and to a lesser degree information on water depths. The portal will also include water observations obtained from Geoscience Australia's historic archive of Landsat imagery. This data will show whether a particular location was 'wet' at some point during the past 30 years. While this imagery does not necessarily represent the peak of a flood or show water depth, the data will support the validation and verification process of hydrologic and hydraulic flood modelling. This work will prove useful particularly in rural areas where there is little or no flood information. The portal also provides flood information custodians with the ability to either upload mapped data directly to the portal or to make this data accessible via web services. Data management tools and standards, developed through NFRIP, will enable data custodians to map their data to agreed standards for delivery through the portal. A portal framework and supporting principles has been developed to guide the maintenance and development of the portal.

A compilation of short animations, describing the key processes involved in tsunami generation.

The Flood Study Summary Services support discovery and retrieval of flood hazard information. The services return metadata and data for flood studies and flood inundation maps held in the 'Australian Flood Studies Database'. The same information is available through a user interface at http://www.ga.gov.au/flood-study-web/. A 'flood study' is a comprehensive technical investigation of flood behaviour. It defines the nature and extent flood hazard across the floodplain by providing information on the extent, level and velocity of floodwaters and on the distribution of flood flows. Flood studies are typically commissioned by government, and conducted by experts from specialist engineering firms or government agencies. Key outputs from flood studies include detailed reports, and maps showing inundation, depth, velocity and hazard for events of various likelihoods. The services are deliverables fom the National Flood Risk Information Project. The main aim of the project is to make flood risk information accessible from a central location. Geoscience Australia will facilitate this through the development of the National Flood Risk Information Portal. Over the four years the project will launch a new phase of the portal prior to the commencement of each annual disaster season. Each phase will increase the amount of flood risk information that is publicly accessible and increase stakeholder capability in the production and use of flood risk information. flood-study-search returns summary layers and links to rich metadata about flood maps and the studies that produced them. flood-study-map returns layers for individual flood inundation maps. Typically a single layer shows the flood inundation for a particular likelihood or historical event in a flood study area. To retrieve flood inundation maps from these services, we recommend: 1. querying flood-study-search to obtain flood inundation map URIs, then 2. using the flood inundation map URIs to retrieve maps separately from flood-study-map. The ownership of each flood study remains with the commissioning organisation and/or author as indicated with each study, and users of the database should refer to the reports themselves to determine any constraints in their usage.

Coastal communities in Australia are particularly exposed to disasters resulting from the coincidence of severe wind damage, storm surge, coastal flooding and shoreline erosion during cyclones and extra-tropical storms. Because the climatic drivers of these events are stronger during or across specific years (e.g. during La Nina periods), they can repeatedly impact the coast over periods of weeks, months or up to a few years. The consequences of individual events are therefore exacerbated with little or no opportunity for recovery of natural systems or communities. This poster summarises the objectives, approach and methodology for this storm surge project. A contribution to the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC.

PTHA18 estimates the frequency with which tsunamis of any given size occur in deep waters around the Australian coastline. To do this it simulates hundreds of thousands of possible tsunami scenarios from key earthquake sources in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and models the frequency with which these occur.

This report describes the 2018 Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Australia (henceforth PTHA18). The PTHA18 estimates the frequency with which tsunamis of any given size occur in deep waters around the Australian coastline. To do this it simulates hundreds of thousands of possible tsunami scenarios from key earthquake sources in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and models the frequency with which these occur. To justify the PTHA18 methodologies a significant fraction of the report is devoted to testing the tsunami scenarios against historical observations, and comparing the modelled earthquake rates against alternative estimates. Although these test provide significant justification for the PTHA18 results, there remain large uncertainties in “how often” tsunamis occur at many sites. This is due to fundamental limitations in present-day scientific knowledge of how often large earthquakes occur.

In 2018, Geoscience Australia updated and released the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA), which outlines the tsunami hazard for all of Australia and its offshore territories.

Tsunamis are relatively rare in Australia and emergency managers rely on the sharing of information at national forums to assist them to manage the tsunami risk in their own jurisdiction. Emergency managers responsible for tsunami risk management across Australia recently identified the need for national consistency in tsunami hazard information and as a result, a project was initiated to develop national guidelines for tsunami hazard modelling. This presentation will outline the approach adopted to develop these guidelines, focusing on the collaboration of end-users and tsunami modelling practitioners. The guidelines were explicitly designed to facilitate appropriate standards of rigour and improved national consistency in tsunami hazard modelling, without dictating software choices or otherwise suppressing innovative practices (which will evolve over time in concert with improvements in tsunami science). The guidelines focused instead on providing guidance in designing a study suitable for the use-case being considered. Core issues included the treatment of uncertainties in tsunami generation, propagation and inundation modelling, and scenario return periods. Whilst the emergency managers proposed the development of these guidelines, the target audience included any agency would could commission tsunami hazard studies for a particular purpose (e.g. coastal infrastructure owners, insurance), as well as the tsunami modellers conducting such studies. The guidelines will also become a valuable resource for the tsunami modelling community. In many situations, tsunami modelling is conducted by coastal hazard modellers who may not have current understanding of Australia’s tsunami hazard.

University of Newcastle researchers captured media attention in 2017 with the release of a study modelling tsunami risk for the city of Sydney. The study considered a range of scenarios from minor disruptions through to rare, one-in-5000-year disasters. It’s possible the study made headlines in part for the novelty factor. This is not to say Australians are flippant about tsunamis; as a nation, we have grieved the traumatic impact of tsunamis in our region. We just don’t think it will happen to us. However, the science says otherwise. The historical and prehistorical record indicates that tsunamis have affected Australia in the past and could do so again. To Australia’s north and east lie thousands of kilometres of tectonic plate boundaries, where undersea earthquakes could generate tsunamis that reach Australia in a matter of hours. Given half the Australian population lives within 10 kilometres of a coastline – not to mention the scores of interstate and international visitors to our beaches – it’s imperative we take tsunami planning seriously. That’s why the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience (AIDR) partnered with the Australian Tsunami Advisory Group (ATAG) to revise and refresh national guidance for tsunami emergency planning in Australia. ATAG is the leading national group for tsunami capability development, bringing together the expertise of policymakers, scientists and emergency services practitioners from around Australia. The review produced the Tsunami Emergency Planning in Australia Handbook, an authoritative resource for emergency managers, local and state governments, port authorities and commercial operators in coastal areas. Replacing its 2010 predecessor, Manual 46: Tsunami Emergency Planning in Australia, the handbook was published on 5 November 2018 to mark the United Nations World Tsunami Awareness Day. In clear, accessible language, the handbook outlines the causes and characteristics of tsunamis, separating fact from fiction and highlighting key terms. It introduces planners to both ‘Marine Threat’ and ‘Land Inundation Threat’ – key categories in the tsunami warnings framework – and explores the corresponding planning considerations for coastal communities as well as more transitory ‘maritime’ communities – including fishers, boaters and swimmers. Maritime communities also encompass a range of commercial and government activities, including offshore oil and gas enterprises, military exercises and tourism. The handbook steps users through the responsibilities, processes and warning types that comprise the Australian Tsunami Warning System that was established by the Australian Government after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. ATAG has actively contributed to the management of tsunami risk by promoting research, knowledge management and education. In 2018, ATAG also partnered with AIDR to develop the Tsunami hazard modelling guidelines that represent the most up-to-date view of tsunami hazard nationally. A key companion to the revised handbook, the guidelines present a principles-based approach to developing tsunami hazard information for different purposes; from emergency management to infrastructure development and insurance. The guidelines don’t dictate the use of a particular software; they ask questions to support cooperative approaches between scientists and end users. As for the handbook, stakeholder consultation was key to the development of the Tsunami hazard modelling guidelines. Geoscience Australia, an ATAG member, led the process in partnership with public and private sector representatives and with Commonwealth funding support through Emergency Management Australia. The guidelines emerged from a community-driven development process that engaged different end users and recognised the impact of a range of factors on modelling approaches and decisions (such as the use case and available data). A workshop held in Canberra in 2017 was a key step, bringing together tsunami modelling experts from government, industry and academia. The handbook and companion guidelines are complimented by the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Geoscience Australia. This resource informs local tsunami inundation modelling, which feeds into evacuation planning and community safety. The Tsunami handbook is also supported by Tsunami: The Ultimate Guide – an online learning resource developed collaboratively by ATAG and led by Surf Life Saving Australia. The guide raises tsunami awareness through the education of school-aged children and achieved a highly commended award in the 2014 Resilient Australia Awards. The Tsunami Emergency Planning in Australia Handbook and the suite of companion resources is part of the Australian Disaster Resilience Handbook Collection. The Handbook Collection represents nationally agreed principles on a range of salient disaster resilience themes; supporting organisations across sectors to adopt best-practice approaches aligned to national policy.