risk assessment
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One of the more important observations from the 1989 Newcastle earthquake in Australia was the spatial distribution of earthquake damage, which was strongly related to variability in near-surface regolith properties and their influence on ground-shaking (i.e. site response). This association between ground-shaking and sediment distribution is well recognised, but has not previously been investigated for much of Australia. In an effort to characterize the Australian regolith in terms of its ability to modify earthquake energy, this study develops a national site classification map of Australia for application in first order earthquake hazard and risk assessment. Site classes are assigned based on a method developed in California, which uses the relationship between geological material and the shear wave velocity of the upper 30 m (Vs30). The classification scheme is then adjusted to suit the Australian geological environment, by accounting for the presence of highly weathered in situ regolith commonly encountered in this generally stable tectonic setting. This methodology has been successfully tested using geophysical data from a variety of Quaternary sedimentary environments in the Newcastle, Sydney and Perth urban areas and from bedrock-dominated environments at a range of sites across Australia.
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Revised Tsunami movie. We are looking to revise the tsunami movie made for the PMSEIC (Dec 2005) presentation. The aim is to make a product that is appropriatly credited and has copyright permissions so that we may distribute it publicly and present it in our foyer.
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Floods are estimated to be the most costly natural disaster in Australia. The average direct annual cost of flooding between 1967 and 1999 has been estimated at A$314 million (BTE 2001). Economic loss due to flooding varies widely from year to year and is dependent on a number of factors for example, flood severity and location. The most costly year for floods was 1974, with a total cost of A$2.9 billion (BTE 2001). Some major floods and their estimated cost in 1998 values (Agriculture and Resource Management Council of Australia and New Zealand, ARMCANZ 2000) include: <li>Brisbane floods, Summer 1974, A$700 million damage</li> <li>Victoria floods, Spring 1993, A$320 million damage</li> <li>Hunter River floods, 1955, A$500 million damage.</li> Flooding has a major impact on our communities. There have been ninety-nine recorded deaths from floods between 1967 and 1999 and 1019 recorded injuries (Bureau of Transport Economics, 2001). The impact of flooding be devastating, with the affects often extending beyond the zone of inundation, as can be seen in Figure 1. The floods in regional Queensland and NSW in 2001, for example, resulted in an increase in the cost of fruit and vegetables in Australia
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Severe wind accounts for about 40 percent of the total number of buildings damaged by natural disasters in Australia during the 20th Century. Climate change has the potential to significantly affect severe wind hazard and the resulting level of economic loss. We describe a computational framework that has been developed to quantify both the wind hazard and risk due to severe winds. The nationally consistent assessment of severe wind hazard and risk (residential buildings only) is based on innovative modeling techniques, heuristic wind vulnerability assessments and application of Geoscience Australia's National Exposure Information System (NEXIS). We have applied new modelling and analysis techniques to develop a revised understanding of the regional wind hazard across Australia. This modelling has enabled the development of a wind hazard map for the Australian region. Regional wind hazard has been assessed by utilising statistical-parametric models, dynamical downscaling and spatial interpolation techniques allowing the derivation of estimates of wind hazard from three different phenomena - tropical cyclones, thunderstorms and synoptic storms. Across much of the interior of the country, the revised estimates of regional wind speeds are comparable to the regional wind speeds specified in the existing Australian - New Zealand wind loading standard (AS/NZS 1170.2 2010), generally to within 10 percent for the design wind speeds (500-year return period gust wind hazard). The regional wind speeds derived in AS/NZS 1170.2 were determined from analysis of long-term records (observations) of daily maximum gust wind speeds.
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Geoscience Australia (GA) is currently undertaking the process to update the Australian National Earthquake Hazard Map using modern methods and an extended catalogue of Australian earthquakes. This map is a key component of Australia's earthquake loading code. The characterisation of strong ground-shaking using Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) underpins any earthquake hazard assessment. We have recently seen many advances in ground-motion modelling for active tectonic regions. However, the challenge for Australia - as it is for other stable continental regions - is that there are very few ground-motion recordings from large-magnitude earthquakes with which to develop empirically-based GMPEs. Consequently, we need to consider other numerical techniques to develop these models in the absence of these data. Recently published Australian-specific GMPEs which employ these numerical techniques are now available and these will be integrated into GA's future hazard outputs. This paper addresses several fundamental aspects related to ground-motion in Australia that are necessary to consider in the update of the National Earthquake Hazard Map, including: 1) a summary of recent advances of ground-motion modelling in Australia; 2) a comparison of Australian GMPEs against those commonly used in other stable continental regions; 3) a comparison of new GMPEs against their intensity-based counterparts used in the previous hazard map; and 4) the impact of updated attenuation factors on local magnitudes in southeastern Australia. Specific regional and temporal aspects of magnitude calculation techniques across Australia and its affects on the earthquake catalogue will also be addressed.
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Introduction The Rapid Inventory Collection System (RICS) was initially conceived as a roving vehicular video damage assessment platform which offered many potential time and cost saving benefits to Geoscience Australia (GA) in the efficient and effective assessment of building and infrastructure damage following natural disasters. In particular, RICS: - provides a quick 'first-look' of the damage impact area when the first-on-scene personnel are assessing worst-hit regions - compliments and augments the detailed field damage assessments (house-to-house, structure-to-structure) currently undertaken using hand-held PDAs - allows for 100% coverage of building damage in a disaster-affected area - collects data focusing on 'population coverage' and undamaged structures allowing key engineering and geographic information systems (GIS) staff to focus on damaged structures - allows the field damage assessment to be undertaken more efficiently and in a shorter period of time - provides the option of analysing data off site when operating in the field in 'poor weather conditions' and - is useful for rapid building inventory assessment, validation & updating To date, RICS has been mainly utilised for building inventory assessment in support of the development of the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS), a buildings database that GA is constructing for national scale infrastructure risk assessment.
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What is GIS? Many of the decisions we make every day involve being able to access, understand and utilise the space around us. This type of information is referred to as spatial information, and when visualised, we can see relationships, patterns, and trends that may not otherwise be apparent. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is mapping software that provides spatial information by linking locations with information about that location. It provides the functions and tools needed to efficiently capture, store, manipulate, analyse, and display the information about places and things. The key components of a GIS are: - Tools for entering and manipulating geographic information such as addresses, political boundaries, geological features and building information - A database management system (DBMS) - Tools that create intelligent digital maps you can analyse, query for more information, or print for presentation - An easy-to-use graphical user interface (GUI)
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Cliff Head is the only producing oil field in the offshore Perth Basin. The lack of other exploration success has lead to a perception that the primary source rock onshore (Triassic Kockatea Shale) is absent or has limited generative potential. However, recent offshore well studies show the unit is present and oil prone. Multiple palaeo-oil columns were identified within Permian reservoir below the Kockatea Shale regional seal. This prompted a trap integrity study into fault reactivation as a critical risk for hydrocarbon preservation. Breach of accumulations could be attributed to mid Jurassic extension, Valanginian breakup, margin tilt or Miocene structuring. The study focused on four prospects, covered by 3D seismic data, containing breached and preserved oil columns. 3D geomechanical modelling simulated the response of trap-bounding faults and fluid flow to mid Jurassic-Early Cretaceous NW-SE extension. Calibration of modelling results against fluid inclusion data, as well as current and palaeo-oil columns, demonstrates that along-fault fluid flow correlates with areas of high shear and volumetric strains. Localisation of deformation leads to both an increase in structural permeability promoting fluid flow, and the development of hard-linkages between reactivated Permian reservoir faults and Jurassic faults producing top seal bypass. The main structural factors controlling the distribution of permeable fault segments are: (i) failure for fault strikes 350??110?N; (ii) fault plane intersections generating high shear deformation and dilation; and (iii) preferential reactivation of larger faults shielding neighbouring structures. These results point to a regional predictive approach for assessing trap integrity in the offshore Perth Basin.
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Cyclone Tracy is the only tropical cyclone to have devastated a major Australian population centre. Following the disaster (December 1974), the Australian Government implemented significantly improved building standards aimed at reducing the impact of a similar event in future. Geoscience Australia has developed models of severe wind risk for the Australian continent which utilise impact modelling, where we separately assess hazard, exposure and vulnerability in order to evaluate impact/damage. As often occurs in extreme natural disasters, meteorological instrumentation failed prior to the maximum wind gusts being recorded, so the spatial extent of the peak wind gusts were inferred from models constrained by estimates of the observed maximum peak wind gust. For this study, we utilise the wind vulnerability relationships determined in recent years for similar circa 1974 structures, and our knowledge of the type and specific location of structures at the time, to make the link between hazard and impact/damage. This spatial damage estimation (site specific values) is compared with the observed 1974 post-event survey damage in an effort to validate the model. As a result of Cyclone Tracy and the subsequent evacuation of 75% of the population, much more attention was given to building codes and other social aspects of disaster planning (i.e. tree planting). The likelihood of another severe cyclone impacting Darwin is real and on past experience likely within the next few decades. The study utilises both the exposure and vulnerability for 1974 and present-day residential building inventories, to evaluate the resulting effectiveness of the improved building codes. This provides a comparative impact assessment of the scenario were Cyclone Tracy to occur in the current cyclone season and evaluates the reduced vulnerability of the present building stock (compared to 1974). The study also assesses the effect that improved building standards have had on the Darwin community.
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We have applied new modelling and analysis techniques to develop a revised understanding of the regional wind hazard across Australia.0 This modelling has enabled the development of a wind hazard map for the Australian region. Regional wind hazard has been assessed by utilising statistical-parametric models, dynamical downscaling and spatial interpolation techniques allowing the derivation of estimates of wind hazard from three different phenomena - tropical cyclones, thunderstorms and synoptic storms. Across much of the interior of the country, the revised estimates of regional wind speeds are comparable to the regional wind speeds specified in the existing Australian - New Zealand wind loading standard (AS/NZS 1170.2 2010), generally to within 10 percent for the design wind speeds (500-year return period gust wind hazard). The regional wind speeds derived in AS/NZS 1170.2 were determined from analysis of long-term records (observations) of daily maximum gust wind speeds. A preliminary assessment of wind risk for the four case study regions, utilising the new modelled hazard methodology as well as the climate simulations, indicated little change in the hazard during the 21st century and therefore little or no change to the wind risk associated with the current residential building stock. When population projections were utilised to infer increased number of buildings (all built to the present standard), the proportion of legacy buildings within the building population declined resulting in a decline in wind risk.