Authors / CoAuthors
Cechet, R.P. | Arthur, W.C. | Sanabria, L.A. | Thomas, C.M. | Wehner, M. | Divi, C.B. | Yang, T. | Dunford, M.A. | Power, L.
Abstract
We report on an assessment of severe wind hazard across the Australian continent, and severe wind risk (quantified in annualised losses due to severe wind damage) in built up areas, based on innovative modelling techniques and application of the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS). A combination of tropical cyclone, synoptic and thunderstorm wind hazard estimates is used to provide a revised estimate of the severe wind hazard across Australia. The hazard modelling techniques developed in this assessment utilise both 'current-climate' and also simulations forced by IPCC SRES climate change scenarios, which have been employed to determine how the wind hazard will be influenced by climate change. We have also undertaken a national assessment of localised wind speed modifiers including topography, terrain and built environment. It is important to account for these effects in assessment of risk as it is the local wind speed that causes damage to structures. The effects of the wind speed modifiers are incorporated through a statistical modification of the regional wind speed. The results from this current climate hazard assessment are compared with the hazard based on the existing understanding as specified in the Australian/New Zealand Wind Loading Standard (AS/NZS 1170.2, 2002). Regions are mapped where the design wind speed depicted in AS/NZS 1170.2 is significantly lower than 'new' hazard analysis. These are regions requiring more immediate attention regarding the development of adaptation options including consideration by the wind loading standards committee for detailed study in the context of the minimum design standards in the current building code regulations. Considering future climate scenarios, the Tasmanian region is used to illustrate where the wind loading standard becomes inadequate, and where retrofitting is indicated as a viable adaptation option at a specified future time. The cost/benefit analysis techniques used will be demonstrated.
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document
eCat Id
70308
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- External PublicationAbstract
- ( Theme )
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- wind
- ( Theme )
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- risk assessment
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
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2010-01-01T00:00:00
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