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National Environmental Science Programme (NESP) Project C3 Summary Report

This report refers to the 5th Local Monitoring Survey completed at the Pohnpei (POHN) continuous GPS (CGPS) station on Saturday 15 August 2009

In June 2012 Geoscience Australia was commissioned by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) to undertake detailed wind hazard assessments for 14 Pacific Island countries and East Timor as part of the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program. PACCSAP program follows on from work Geoscience Australia did for the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) looking at CMIP3 generation of climate models. The objective of this study is to improve scientific knowledge by examining past climate trends and variability to provide regional and national climate projections. This document presents results from current and future climate projections of severe wind hazard from tropical cyclones for the 15 PACCSAP partner countries describing the data and methods used for the analysis. The severe wind hazard was estimated for current (1981 to 2000) and future (2081 to 2100) climate scenarios. Tropical-cyclone like vortices from climate simulations conducted by CSIRO using six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models (BCC-CSM1.1, NorESM1-M, CSIRO-Mk3.6, IPSL-CM5A, MRI-CGM3 and GFDL-ESM2M) as well as the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship were used as input to the Geoscience Australia's Tropical Cyclone Risk Model to generate return period wind speeds for the 15 PACCSAP partner countries. The Tropical Cyclone Risk Model is a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclone behaviour, enabling users to generate synthetic records of tropical cyclones representing many thousands of years of activity. The 500-year return period wind speed is analysed and discussed into more details in this report, since it is used as a benchmark for the design loads on residential buildings. Results indicate that there is not a consistent spatial trend for the changes in 500-year cyclonic wind speed return period when CMIP5 models are compared individually. BCC-CSM1M and IPSL-CM5A presented an increase in the annual TC frequency for East Timor, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere. On the other hand, NorESM1M showed a decrease in the annual TC frequency for the same areas. The other three models showed a mixed of increase and decrease in their annual TC frequency. When CMIP5 models were analysed by partner county capitals for the 500-year cyclonic wind speed return period, IPSL-CM5A and GFDL-ESM2M models presented an increase in the cyclonic wind speed intensity for almost all capitals analysed with exception of Funafuti (GFDL-ESM2M), which presented a decrease of 0.7% and Honiara (IPSL-CM5A) with a decrease of 1.6%. The tropical cyclone annual frequency ensemble mean indicates an increase in the tropical cyclone frequency within all three regions considered in this study. When looking at individual capitals, a slight increase in the 500-year return period cyclonic wind speed ensemble mean varying between 0.8% (Port Vila) to 9.1% (Majuro) is noticed. A decline around 2.4% on average in the 500-year return period cyclonic wind speed ensemble mean is observed in Dili, Suva, Nukualofa and Ngerulmud. The ensemble spatial relative change did not show any particular consistency for the 500-year cyclonic wind speed. Areas where Marshall Islands and Niue are located presented an increase in the 500-year cyclonic wind speed while a decrease is observed in areas around South of Vanuatu, East of Solomon Islands, South of Fiji and some areas in Tonga. The information from the evaluation of severe wind hazard from tropical cyclones, together with other PACCSAP program outputs, will be used to build partner country capacity to effectively adapt and plan for the future and overcome challenges from climate change.

Phase two of the China Australia Geological Storage of CO2 (CAGS2) project aimed to build on the success of the previous CAGS project and promote capacity building, training opportunities and share expertise on the geological storage of CO2. The project was led by Geoscience Australia (GA) and China's Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) through the Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21 (ACCA21). CAGS2 has successfully completed all planned activities including three workshops, two carbon capture and storage (CCS) training schools, five research projects focusing on different aspects of the geological storage of CO2, and ten researcher exchanges to China and Australia. The project received favourable feedback from project partners and participants in CAGS activities and there is a strong desire from the Chinese government and Chinese researchers to continue the collaboration. The project can be considered a highly successful demonstration of bi-lateral cooperation between the Australian and Chinese governments. Through the technical workshops, training schools, exchange programs, and research projects, CAGS2 has facilitated and supported on-going collaboration between many research institutions and industry in Australia and China. More than 150 experts, young researchers and college students, from over 30 organisations, participated in CAGS2. The opportunity to interact with Australian and international experts at CAGS hosted workshops and schools was appreciated by the participants, many of whom do not get the opportunity to attend international conferences. Feedback from a CAGS impact survey found that the workshops and schools inspired many researchers and students to pursue geological storage research. The scientific exchanges proved effective and often fostered further engagement between Chinese and Australian researchers and their host organisations. The research projects often acted as a catalyst for attracting additional CCS funding (at least A$700,000), including two projects funded under the China Clean Development Mechanism Fund. CAGS sponsored research led to reports, international conference presentations, and Chinese and international journal papers. CAGS has established a network of key CCS/CCUS (carbon capture, utilisation and storage) researchers in China and Australia. This is exemplified by the fact that 4 of the 6 experts that provided input on the 'storage section' of the 12th Five-Year plan for Scientific and Technological Development of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage, which laid out the technical policy priorities for R&D and demonstration of CCUS technology in China, were CAGS affiliated researchers. The contributions of CAGS to China's capacity building and policy CCUS has been acknowledged by the Chinese Government. CAGS support of young Chinese researchers is particularly noted and well regarded. Letters have been sent to the Secretary of the Department of Industry and Science and to the Deputy CEO of Geoscience Australia, expressing China's gratitude for the Australian Government's support and GA's cooperation in the CAGS project.

The Great Artesian Basin Water Resource Assessment involves a basin-scale investigation of water resources to fill knowledge gaps about the status of water resources in the basin and the potential impacts of climate change and resource development. This report addresses findings in the Carpentaria region. Citation: Smerdon BD, Welsh WD and Ransley TR (eds) (2012) Water resource assessment for the Carpentaria region. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Great Artesian Basin Water Resource Assessment. CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.

The Great Artesian Basin Water Resource Assessment involves a basin-scale investigation of water resources to fill knowledge gaps about the status of water resources in the basin and the potential impacts of climate change and resource development. This report addresses findings in the Western Eromanga region. Citation: Smerdon BD, Welsh WD and Ransley TR (eds) (2012) Water resource assessment for the Western Eromanga region. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Great Artesian Basin Water Resource Assessment. CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia

The background of this report is a research project titled `Cost effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings within the Bushfire and Natural hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC, 2015). The motivation of this project arises from the experience and observations during the recent flooding in Australia in 2011 and 2013 which caused tremendous devastation in Queensland. The fundamental reason of this damage was inappropriate developments in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in food prone areas. Although the vulnerability and associated flood risk is being reduced for newer construction by adopting strict standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock is quite high which contributes disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments. Therefore, the project within the BNHCRC aims to address this issue and target to assess optimum mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains. To achieve this goal, as a first step, a building schema has been developed to categorise Australian residential building stock (Maqsood et al. 2015). The next step is to conduct a literature review of mitigation strategies and this report presents a comprehensive review of mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally. The review will help to evaluate the strategies that can be adopted in Australia which suites Australian building types and typical catchment behaviours. Strategies have been developed for different types of floods and adoption of a particular strategy depends upon the characteristics of flood hazard, building stock, mitigation incentive (if any) and benefit cost analysis. The report discusses the widely used strategies and summarises the pros and cons of each of them. The review categorises mitigation strategies into the following categories: Elevation Relocation Dry floodproofing Wet floodproofing Flood barriers Elevation is traditionally considered to be an easier and effective strategy and is the one which generally result in incentives such as reduction in insurance premiums. However it becomes difficult for slab-on-grade structures. Relocation is the surest way to eliminate flood risk but as in case of elevation it becomes more difficult for heavier and larger structures. Dry floodproofing and flood barriers are efficient only in shallow low velocity hazard areas and are generally not recommended in deep fast flowing waters. Wet floodproofing is suitable in low to moderate depths of water with a duration of not more than a day. It also require adapted building use and use of flood resistant building materials. In the following years of the project, each mitigation strategy will be evaluated and costed through engagement of professional quantity surveyors. Cost benefit analysis will be conducted to determine optimum retrofit strategies for selected building types within a range of catchment behaviours. The result will be an evidence base to inform decision making by government and property owners on mitigation of flood risk by providing information on the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies and an optimal solution for different cases of building and catchment types.

Basin evolution of the Vlaming Sub-basin and the deep-water Mentelle Basin, both located offshore on the southwest Australian continental margin, were investigated using 2D and 3D petroleum system modelling. Compositional kinetics, determined on the main source sequences, were used to predict timing of hydrocarbon generation and migration as well as GOR evolution and phase behaviour in our 2D and 3D basin models. The main phase of petroleum generation in the Vlaming Sub-basin occurred at 150 Ma and ceased during following inversion and erosion episodes. Only areas which observed later burial have generated additional hydrocarbons during the Tertiary and up to present day. The modelling results indicate the likely generation and trapping of light oils for the Jurassic intervals for a variety of structural traps. It is these areas which are of greatest interest from an exploration point of view. The 2D numerical simulations in the Mentelle Basin indicate the presence of active hydrocarbon generating kitchen areas. Burial histories and generalized petroleum evolutionary histories are investigated.

This report provides background information about the Ginninderra controlled release Experiment 1 including a description of the environment and weather during the experiment, the groundwater conditions and a brief description of all the monitoring techniques that were trialled during the experiment. Release of CO2 began 28 March 2012 at 10:30 AM and stopped 30 May 2012 4:15 PM. The total CO2 release rate during Experiment 1 was 144 kg/d CO2. Krypton gas was also released as a tracer gas at a rate of 10 mL/min Kr in one section of the release well only. The aim of the Ginninderra Experiment 1 controlled release was to artificially simulate the leakage of CO2 along a line source, to represent leakage along a fault. Multiple methods and techniques were then trialled in order to assess their abilities to: - detect that a leak was present - pinpoint the location of the leak - identify the strength of the leak - monitor how the CO2 behaves in the sub-surface - assess the effects it may have on soil ecology Several monitoring and assessment techniques were trialled for their effectiveness to quantify and qualify the CO2 that was release. The methods are described in this report and include: - soil gas - CO2 carbo-cap (GMP343) - eddy covariance - groundwater levels and chemistry - soil microbial samples - soil flux - krypton in air - electromagnetic (EM-31) - meteorology - CO2 isotopes in tank This report is a reference guide to describe the Ginninderra Experiment 1 details. Only methods are described in this report with the results of the study published in conference papers and future journal articles.