Extreme events in a changing climate A climate event is 'extreme' when it (or a series of events) occurs with greater intensity, frequency or duration than is normally expected. Every region of the world experiences extreme events from time to time and natural climate variability already produces extreme events in Tasmania. This includes heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts and storms. Extreme events can have devastating and wide ranging effects on society and the environment, impacting infrastructure, agriculture, utilities, water resources and emergency planning.

This presentation will provide an overview of some of the work currently being undertaken at Geoscience Australia GA) as part of the National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (NCVA), funded by the Department of Climate Change (DCC). The presentation will summarise the methodology applied, and highlight the issues, including the limitations and data gaps.

The Australian National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (NCVA) was commissioned by the Federal Government to assess the risk to coastal communities from climate related hazards. In addition to an understanding of the impact/risk posed by the current climate, the study also examined the change in risk under a range of future climate scenarios. This assessment will provide information for application to policy decisions for, inter alia, land use, building codes, emergency management and insurance applications. Geoscience Australia coordinated the work undertaken to quantify the impact on property and infrastructure. This included the development of SMARTLINE, a nationally-consistent database of coastal morphology for the entire country, which provides critical information on the geology and landforms and their potential susceptibility to instability or degradation due to environmental or climatic factors. In a first-order attempt to assess the climate-change induced hazard to the coastal landscape, SMARTLINE data have been combined with sea-level rise (SLR) projections for 2030 and 2100, and 1 in 100 year current-climate storm surge estimates to determine potential areas of inundation and zones of instability where coastal recession due to SLR is predicted. Additionally, cyclonic wind hazard along Australia's northern coastline has been estimated using Geoscience Australia's Tropical Cyclone Risk Model, utilising synthetic tropical cyclone event sets derived from IPCC AR4 global climate models. The hazard levels have been modified for terrain, topographic and shielding effects to reflect localised variations in wind hazard.

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The seismicity of the Australian continent is low to moderate by world standards. However, the seismic risk is much higher for some types of Australian infrastructure due to an incompatibility of structural vulnerability with local earthquake hazard. The earthquake risk in many regional neighbours is even higher due to high hazard, community exposure and vulnerability. The Risk and Impact Analysis Group is a multidisciplinary team at Geoscience Australia that is actively engaged in research to better understand earthquake risk in Australia and to assist agencies in neighbouring countries develop similar knowledge. In this presentation aspects of this work will be described with a particular focus on engineering vulnerability, post disaster information capture and how both can point to effective mitigation options. Risk is the combination of several components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impact) that combine to provide measures that can be very useful for decision makers. Vulnerability is the key link that translates hazard exposure to consequence. Vulnerability is typically expressed in physical terms but includes interdependent utility system vulnerability, economic activity vulnerability and the social vulnerability of communities. All four vulnerability types have been the subject of research at GA but the physical vulnerability is the primary link to the others. Vulnerability research for Australian infrastructure will be presented in the context of a holistic risk framework. Furthermore, the work in the Philippines to develop a first order national suite of models will also be presented. Post disaster survey data is invaluable for understanding the nature of asset vulnerability, developing empirical models and validating analytical models based on structural models. Geoscience Australia has developed a range of tools to assist with damage capture that have been used for several hazard types, including earthquake. Tools include portable street view imagery capture, GPS technology and hand-held computers. Experience with the application of these tools and the information that has been derived will be described along with current activity to improve their utility.

The term "Smartline" refers to a GIS line map format which can allow rapid capture of diverse coastal data into a single consistently classified map, which in turn can be readily analysed for many purposes. This format has been used to create a detailed nationally-consistent coastal geomorphic map of Australia, which is currently being used for the National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (NCVA) as part of the underpinning information for understanding the vulnerability to sea level rise and other climate change influenced hazards such as storm surge. The utility of the Smartline format results from application of a number of key principles. A hierarchical form- and fabric-based (rather than morpho-dynamic) geomorphic classification is used to classify coastal landforms in shore-parallel tidal zones relating to but not necessarily co-incident with the GIS line itself. Together with the use of broad but geomorphically-meaningful classes, this allows Smartline to readily import coastal data from a diversity of differently-classified prior sources into one consistent map. The resulting map can be as spatially detailed as the available data sources allow, and can be used in at least two key ways: Firstly, Smartline can work as a source of consistently classified information which has been distilled out of a diversity of data sources and presented in a simple format from which required information can be rapidly extracted using queries. Given the practical difficulty many coastal planners and managers face in accessing and using the vast amount of primary coastal data now available in Australia, Smartline can provide the means to assimilate and synthesise all this data into more usable forms.

In response to the catastrophic flooding in south east Queensland in early 2011 that caused between AUS$5-6 billion damage, the Australian Government initiated the National Disaster Review; an independent review into the insurance arrangements for individuals and businesses for damages and losses due to flood and other natural disasters. The review emphasised that consumers need to be aware of the risks they face, and highlighted the lack of consistency in the collection and provision of flood risk information. In response the Australian Government committed AUS$12 m over 4 years to the National Flood Risk Information Project (NFRIP). NFRIP was established to improve the quality, availability of accessibility of flood information across Australia and commenced in July 2012 with Geoscience Australia as the technical lead and Attorney Generals department taking the policy lead. The project comprises three core activities. 1) Development of the Australia Flood Risk Information Portal (AFRIP; www.ga.gov.au/afrip ), an online flood information portal that provides free access to authoritative flood study information and associated mapping from a central location. Centralising this information will make it easy for the public, engineering consultants, insurers, researchers and emergency managers to find out what flood information and mapping exists and where, and to better understand their risk. 2) Analysis of Geoscience Australia's historic archive of satellite imagery from 1987 to the present to provide an indication of how often surface water has been observed anywhere in Australia over the period of the archive. These Water Observations from Space (WOfS; www.ga.gov.au/wofs ) provide baseline information that can be used when no other flood information is available and an understanding of where surface water may impact assets and utility infrastructure. 3) Improving the quality of future flood information by completing the revision of the Australian Rainfall and Runoff guidelines (ARR; www.arr.org.au ). ARR is a series of national guidelines, methodologies and datasets fundamental for flood modelling that was updated in 1987 and modified 1997. The revised guidelines will provide flood professionals with information and data necessary to produce more accurate and consistent flood studies and mapping into the future. This presentation will provide a brief summary of the NFRIP objectives and progress to date, discuss some of the problems encountered in sourcing and making natural hazard and risk information public, and reflect on the broader challenges in the communication of risk to the wider community.

The National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) project is an initiative of Geoscience Australia in response to the Australian Government's research priority of safeguarding Australian communities from natural hazards, critical infrastructure failures and policy development. The governmental priority urges the implementation of a 'nationally consistent system of data collection, research and analysis to ensure a sound knowledge-base on natural disasters and disaster mitigation'. The infrastructure exposure definition and development framework suitable for multi hazards and climate change impact analysis is highly complex. NEXIS aims to meet the challenge by collecting, collating and maintaining nationally consistent exposure information at the individual building level. This requires detailed spatial analysis and the integration of available demographic, structural and statistical data for various sectors. The system integrates data from several national spatial databases, such as the Geocoded National Address File, the Property Cadastre, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) census data, and building data from Australian state governments. It also includes post disaster survey information and data from several infrastructure agencies and local government bodies. NEXIS provides a representative assessment of asset exposure to several hazard models which can be aggregated to an appropriate level from State to mesh block level for the required application. By integrating the information with the decision-support tools of alert systems and early warning, it can enable the rapid forecasting of the impacts due to various hazards (infrastructure damage and casualties). Currently it is being used for tactical response for emergency managers and strategic policy and planning development. In addition to enabling research in Geoscience Australia's risk and impact analysis projects, it supports several government initiatives across the departments and national committees.

The tragic events of the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004 highlighted the need for reliable and effective alert and response sysems for tsunami threat to Australian communities. Geoscience Australia has established collaborative partnerships with state and federal emergency management agencies to support better preparedness and to improve community awareness of tsunami risks.

A review commissioned by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) in June 2001 entitled 'Natural Disasters in Australia: reforming mitigation, relief and recovery arrangements' concluded that a new approach to natural disasters in Australia was needed. While disaster response and reaction plans remain important, there is now a greater focus towards anticipation of mitigation against natural hazards, involving a fundamental shift in focus beyond relief and recovery towards cost-effective, evidence-based disaster mitigation. This new approach now includes an assessment of the changes in frequency and intensity of natural hazard events that are influenced by climate change, and aims to achieve safer, more sustainable Australian communities in addition to a reduction in risk, damage and losses from future natural disasters. Geoscience Australia (GA) is developing risk models and innovative approaches to assess the potential losses to Australian communities from a range of sudden impact natural hazards. GA aims to define the economic and social threat posed by a range of rapid onset hazards through a combined study of natural hazard research methods and risk assessment models. These hazards include earthquakes, cyclones, floods, landslides, severe winds and storm surge/tsunami. This presentation provides an overview of the risk that peak wind gusts pose to a number of Australian communities (major capital cities), and for some cities examines how climate change may affect the risk (utilising modelling underpinned by a small subset of the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios).