Tropical cyclones are the most common disaster in the Pacific, and among the most destructive. In December 2012, Cyclone Evan caused over US$200 million damage in Samoa, nearly 30 percent of Samoan GDP. Niue suffered losses of US$85 million following Cyclone Heta in 2004-over five times its GDP. As recently as January 2014, Cyclone Ian caused significant damage throughout Tonga, resulting in the first payout of the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Pilot system operated by the World Bank (2014). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intense tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific basin will likely increase in the future (IPCC 2013). But such general statements about global tropical cyclone activity provide little guidance on how impacts may change locally or even regionally, and thus do little to help communities and nations prepare appropriate adaptation measures. This study assesses climate change in terms of impact on the human population and its assets, expressed in terms of financial loss. An impact focus is relevant to adaptation because changes in hazard do not necessarily result in a proportional change in impact. This is because impacts are driven by exposure and vulnerability as well as by hazard. For example, a small shift in hazard in a densely populated area may have more significant consequences than a bigger change in an unpopulated area. Analogously, a dense population that has a low vulnerability to a particular hazard might not need to adapt significantly to a change in hazard. Even in regions with high tropical cyclone risk and correspondingly stringent building codes, such as the state of Florida, a modest 1 percent increase in wind speeds can result in a 5 percent to 10 percent increase in loss to residential property. Quantifying the change impact thus supports evidence-based decision making on adaptation to future climate risk.

To determine the magnitude of severe wind gust hazard due to thunderstorm downbursts using regional climate model output and analysis of observed data (including radar reflectivity and proximity soundings).

In response to the catastrophic flooding in south east Queensland in early 2011 that caused between AUS$5-6 billion damage, the Australian Government initiated the National Disaster Review; an independent review into the insurance arrangements for individuals and businesses for damages and losses due to flood and other natural disasters. The review emphasised that consumers need to be aware of the risks they face, and highlighted the lack of consistency in the collection and provision of flood risk information. In response the Australian Government committed AUS$12 m over 4 years to the National Flood Risk Information Project (NFRIP). NFRIP was established to improve the quality, availability of accessibility of flood information across Australia and commenced in July 2012 with Geoscience Australia as the technical lead and Attorney Generals department taking the policy lead. The project comprises three core activities. 1) Development of the Australia Flood Risk Information Portal (AFRIP; www.ga.gov.au/afrip ), an online flood information portal that provides free access to authoritative flood study information and associated mapping from a central location. Centralising this information will make it easy for the public, engineering consultants, insurers, researchers and emergency managers to find out what flood information and mapping exists and where, and to better understand their risk. 2) Analysis of Geoscience Australia's historic archive of satellite imagery from 1987 to the present to provide an indication of how often surface water has been observed anywhere in Australia over the period of the archive. These Water Observations from Space (WOfS; www.ga.gov.au/wofs ) provide baseline information that can be used when no other flood information is available and an understanding of where surface water may impact assets and utility infrastructure. 3) Improving the quality of future flood information by completing the revision of the Australian Rainfall and Runoff guidelines (ARR; www.arr.org.au ). ARR is a series of national guidelines, methodologies and datasets fundamental for flood modelling that was updated in 1987 and modified 1997. The revised guidelines will provide flood professionals with information and data necessary to produce more accurate and consistent flood studies and mapping into the future. This presentation will provide a brief summary of the NFRIP objectives and progress to date, discuss some of the problems encountered in sourcing and making natural hazard and risk information public, and reflect on the broader challenges in the communication of risk to the wider community.

A community Safety Capbility Flyer was produced to showcase the work undertaken in the Community Safety Value Stream. The flyer includes an introduction to the Community Safety Value Stream, case studies of the work Geoscience Australia does in this space and information on how to engage with Geoscience Australia via the products, tools, models and applications that are produced. This flyer is intended for use a conferences and where promotional material would beneficial to showcase the work undertaken at Geoscience Australia such as the Floodplain Management Association Conference on 19-22 May 2015.

40 years atmospheric reanalysis for Australia region. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/archive/descriptions/e4/index.html

Modelling tropical cyclone Yasi using TCRM

In 2009 Geoscience Australia (GA), Australia's national geoscience agency, initiated a project to update the National Earthquake Hazard Map for Australia. This talk will summarise the work done by the Earthquake Hazard Section to update the National Earthquake Hazard Maps and will also present the new maps themselves. The maps have mainly been designed to be used as a basis informing Australia's earthquake loading code. However they can also be used to help to improve Australia's ability to better prepare for earthquakes more generally. This talk will provide a brief overview of the work done for this project. Topics to be highlighted in this talk include how we put together a new catalogue of earthquakes for Australia and revised their magnitudes. Our new method for automatically classifying earthquakes as main shocks, foreshocks and aftershocks will also be discussed, as well the new set of earthquake source zones we have produced. In addition, the talk will also discuss new way we have tried to estimate the maximum expected magnitude for earthquakes in Australia from the results of GA's neotectonics program. The completely new set ground motion prediction equations for eastern Australia we have produced will also be presented. Finally, the talk will also show the revised and updated set of earthquake hazard maps based on the latest version of GA's EQRM (Earthquake Risk Model) code. The hazard and spectral curves for selected locations around Australia will be shown and the potential implications for earthquake risk will be briefly discussed. From the 9th International CO2 conference, Beijing 2013

The Tropical Cyclone Scenario Selector Tool (TC SST) provides an interactive application to interrogate the stochastic event catalogue which underpins the 2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment (TCHA18). The application allows users to search for TC events in the catalogue based on location and intensity (either TC intensity category, or maximum wind speed), visualise the tracks and the wind fields of those events, and download the data for further analysis.

This dynamic dataset is composed of data layers representing the potential damage arising from the impacts of Tropical Cyclone (TC) related winds on residential houses. The impacts are determined using information on the forecast track of the TC issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, nationally consistent exposure (residential building) and vulnerability (likely level of damage) information maintained by Geoscience Australia. The tracks are based on the content of Technical Bulletins issued by the Bureau of Meteorology’s Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres every 6 hours for active TCs in the Australian region. As such, information is generated intermittently, depending on the occurrence of TCs. The tracks are a forecast only, so do not include past position information of the TC. Forecasts may extend up to 120 hours (5 days) ahead of the forecast time. A wind field around each track is simulated using Geoscience Australia’s Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM, https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/77484). This provides an estimate of the maximum gust wind speed over open, flat terrain (e.g. airports). Local effects such as topography and land cover changes are incorporated via site wind multipliers (https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/75299), resulting in a 0.2-second, 10-m above ground level wind speed, with a spatial resolution of approximately 30 metres. The impacts are calculated using Geoscience Australia’s HazImp code (https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/110501), which utilises the National Exposure Information System building data and a suite of wind vulnerability curves to determine the level of damage sustained by individual buildings (a damage index). The damage index values are aggregated to Australian Bureau of Statistics Statistical Area Level 1 regions, and can be assigned a qualitative damage description based on the mean damage index.

A selection of images and short animations explaining key aspects of the 2004 Indian Ocean/ Sumatra tsunami, revised and issued for release to the media and other interested organisations on the tenth anniversary of the disaster. This selection updates existing resources previously released by Geoscience Australia.