The South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project was initially developed in the early 1990's as a response to concerns expressed by South Pacific Forum Leaders about the potential impacts of global warming on climate and sea levels in the Pacific. This AusAID funded project was established with the goal of providing an accurate, long term record of sea levels in the South Pacific both for Forum countries and for the international scientific community which need such information to better understand how the Pacific oceanographic and meteorological environment is changing. That information will better equip governments and communities to respond, adapt to and manage the impacts of short and long term environmental change in the region. During the 1990's a network of high resolution sea level and climate monitoring stations was established in the South West Pacific and processed and analysed data from those stations made available to stakeholders. Since 2001, a significant new environmental monitoring component has been added a Continuous Global Positioning System network (CGPS). CGPS receivers will be established near and linked to the sea level monitoring stations in all partner countries and will measure vertical and horizontal land movements on the islands to help determine absolute sea level change.

There has been much debate on the influence climate change may have on global tropical cyclone activity (Webster et al. 2005, Landsea 2005, Emanuel 2005, Knutson et al. 2001), but the impacts on human settlements is even less clear. Regional differences in projected changes are also apparent, further clouding the issue of identifying changes in hazard and risk. As part of a contribution to the Garnaut Climate Change Review (Garnaut 2008), Geoscience Australia examined the changes in a number of indices of tropical cyclone activity as diagnosed from IPCC AR4 simulations. These results can be used to infer likely changes in tropical cyclone hazard. General circulation models (GCMs) are normally too coarse to accurately resolve peak winds associated with tropical cyclones (Walsh and Ryan 2000). Tropical cyclone-like vortices may be present in the finer resolution models, but these are a poor facsimile of observed tropical cyclones and thus are unsatisfactory predictors of changing tropical cyclone characteristics (Camargo et al. 2007). To gain some understanding of the potential changes in tropical cyclone behaviour under different future climate regimes, we use GCM outputs to examine environmental indices that have been linked to the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones.

The aim of this project is to equip ANUGA with a storm surge capability in partnership with the Department of Planning Western Australia (DoP), take steps to validate the methodology and provide a case study to DoP in the form of a storm surge scenario for Bunbury. The developed capability will provide a mechanism whereby DoP can investigate mitigation options for a range of hydrodynamic hazards.

In recent years RIAG has developed a statistical model to assess severe wind hazard in the non-cyclonic regions of Australia ('Region A' as defined in the Australian/NZ Standards for Wind Loading of Structures (AS/NZS 1170.2, 2002)). The model has been tested using observational data from wind stations located in South Eastern Australia. The statistical model matched the results of the Australian/NZ standard for wind loading of structures utilising a more efficient, fully computational method (Sanabria & Cechet, 2007a). We present a methodology to assess severe wind hazard in Australia for regions where there are no observations. The methodology uses simulation data produced by a high resolution regional climate model in association with empirical gust factors. It compares wind speeds produced by the climate model with observations (mean wind speeds) and develops functions which allow wind engineers to correct the simulated data in order to match the observed mean wind speed data. The approach has been validated in a number of locations where observed records are available. In addition a Monte-Carlo modelling approach is utilised to relate extreme mean wind speeds to extreme peak gust wind speeds (Sanabria & Cechet, 2007b).

Geoscience Australia, in collaboration with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE), has conducted a preliminary study to investigate the risk posed to Australian communities by severe winds, both in the current climate and under a range of future climate scenarios. This National Wind Risk Assessment (NWRA) represents the first national-scale assessment of severe wind risk, using consistent information on residential buildings and severe wind hazard. The NWRA has produced an understanding of severe wind hazard for the whole Australian continent, including extreme winds caused by tropical cyclones, thunderstorm downbursts and synoptic storms. New modelling and analysis techniques have been applied to the results of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate modelling efforts to enable assessment of regional wind hazard to the end of the 21st century for four case study regions: Cairns, southeast Queensland, Hobart and Perth. In developing adaptation options, it is essential to have an understanding of the existing risk, and the risk at future times if no action is taken. Adaptation options can then be assessed on their cost versus benefit (i.e. reduction in risk). The NWRA presents methods by which the effectiveness of adaptation to improve residential building resilience may be assessed in economic terms. The study also recognises it is important that the outcomes of the risk analysis are communicated in such a way that the results are easily understood and utilised to support evidence-based policy.

These modelling techniques associated with 21st century climate simulations has enabled the assessment of regional wind hazard up to 2100 (four greenhouse gas scenarios) for the four regions, Hobart, Perth, Southeast Queensland and the Cairns/Innisfail region. The wind hazard assessments (current and future climates) were used in a wind risk model to investigate the impact on severe wind risk (residential building structural resilience) for the four regions considered. Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections were used to scale-up the number of residential structures based on the current ratio of residents per structure. A preliminary assessment of wind risk for the four case study regions, utilising the new modelled hazard methodology as well as the climate simulations, indicated little change in the hazard during the 21st century and therefore little or no change to the wind risk associated with the current residential building stock. When population projections were utilised to infer increased number of buildings (all built to the present standard), the proportion of legacy buildings within the building population declined resulting in a decline in wind risk.

Tropical cyclones, thunderstorms and sub-tropical storms can generate extreme winds that can cause significant economic loss. Severe wind is one of the major natural hazards in Australia. The Geoscience Australia's Risk and Impact Analysis Group (RIAG) is developing mathematical models to study a number of natural hazards including wind hazard. In this study, RIAG's severe wind hazard model for non-cyclonic regions of Australia (Region A in the Australian-New Zealand Wind Loading Standard; AS/NZS 1170.2(2010)) for both current and a range of projected future climate scenarios are discussed. Wind hazard in the cyclonic regions of Australia (mainly the northern states) is studied by using a cyclone model. The methodology to study non-cyclonic wind hazard involves a combination of three models: - A statistical model (i.e. a model based on observed data) to quantify wind hazard using extreme value distributions. - A technique to extract and process wind speeds from a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), which produces gridded hourly 'maximum time-step mean' wind speed and direction fields, and a - A Monte Carlo method to generate gust wind speeds from the RCM mean winds. Gust wind speeds are generated by a numerical convolution of the mean wind speed distribution and a 'regional' observed gust factor. To illustrate the methodology wind hazard calculations under current and future climate for the Australian state of Tasmania will be presented.

The cyclonic wind hazard over the Australian region is determined using synthetic tropical cyclone event sets derived from general circulation models (GCMs) to provide guidance on the potential impacts of climate change. Cyclonic wind hazard is influenced by the frequency, intensity and spatial distribution of tropical cyclones, all of which may change under future climate regimes due to influences such as warmer sea surface temperatures and changes in the global circulation. Cyclonic wind hazard is evaluated using a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones - the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) - which can be used to simulate many thousands of years of cyclone activity. TCRM is used to generate synthetic tracks which are statistically similar to the input event set - either an historical record or other synthetic event set. After applying a parametric wind field to the simulated tracks, we use the aggregated wind fields to evaluate the average recurrence interval wind speeds for three IPCC AR4 scenarios, and make comparisons to the corresponding average recurrence interval wind speed estimates for current climate simulations. Results from the analysis of two GCMs are presented.

Approximately 85% of Australia's population and much of its critical infrastructure is focused around the coastal zone. Continued migration to the coast and increasing coastal development creates challenges for coastal management and planning. It is anticipated that climate change will exacerbate these challenges in the coming decades through rising sea levels and more intense and frequent storms. These impacts will lead to increased risk of inundation, storm surge and coastal erosion which will damage beaches, property and infrastructure along susceptible shorelines and low-lying coastal areas and adversely affect a significant number of Australian coastal communities. The Australian Government's Framework for a National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management identified a need to 'build a national picture of coastal zone areas that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts to better understand the risks and interactions with other stressors in the coastal zone'. Decision-makers at all government levels need access to information to assist development and planning decisions and to identify valuable human and natural assets that require protection. Further to this aim, Geoscience Australia (GA) is assisting the Department of Climate Change to develop a 'first pass' National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment. This is providing fundamental information that will support decision-makers by identifying areas in Australia's coastal zone where potential impacts may be rated as high, medium and low. Potential climate change impacts have been assessed for cyclonic winds and coastal inundation from a combination of sea-level rise and storm surge scenarios.

The 2011 United Nations climate change meeting in Durban provided an historic moment for CCS. After five years without progress, the Cancun Decision (2010) put in place a work program to address issues of concern before CCS could be included under the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and so allow projects in developing countries to earn Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). The program - consisting submissions, a synthesis report and workshop - concluded with the UNFCCC Secretariat producing draft 'modalities and procedures describing requirements for CCS projects under the CDM. The twenty page 'rulebook' provided the basis for negotiations in Durban. The challenging negotiations, lasting over 32 hours, concluded on 9th December with Parties agreeing to adopt final modalities and procedures for CCS under the CDM. These include provisions for participation requirements (including host country regulations), site selection and characterisation, risk and safety assessment, monitoring, liabilities, financial provision, environmental and social impact assessments, responsibilities for long term non-permanence, and timing of the CDM-project end. A key issue was the responsibility for any seepage of CO2 emissions in the long-term (non-permanence). The modalities and procedures separate responsibility for non-permanence from the liability for any local damages resulting from operation of the storage site. In relation to the former, they allow for the host country to determine the responsible entity, either the host country or the country purchasing the CERs. Note that a CER which incorporates responsibility for seepage will be less attractive to buyers. Thus a standard is established for managing CCS projects in developing countries, which will ensure a high level of environmental protection and is workable for projects. It sets an important precedent for the inclusion of CCS into other support mechanisms.