The Earthquake Scenario Selection is an interactive tool for querying, visualising and downloading earthquake scenarios. There are over 160 sites nationally with pre-generated scenarios available. These represent plausible future scenarios that can be used for earthquake risk management and planning (see https://www.ga.gov.au/about/projects/safety/nsha for more details).

The local magnitude ML 5.4 (MW 5.1) Moe earthquake on 19 June 2012 that occurred within the Australian stable continental region was the largest seismic event for the state of Victoria for more than 30 years. Seismic networks in the southeast Australian region yielded many high-quality recordings of the moderate-magnitude earthquake mainshock and its largest aftershock (ML 4.4; MW 4.3) at a hypocentral range of 10 to 480 km. The source and attenuation characteristics of the earthquake sequence are analyzed. Almost 15,000 felt reports were received following the main shock, which tripped a number of coal-fired power generators in the region, amounting to the loss of approximately 1955 megawatts of generation capacity. The attenuation of macroseismic intensities are shown to mimic the attenuation shape of Eastern North America (ENA) models, but require an inter-event bias to reduce predicted intensities. Further instrumental ground-motion recordings are compared to ground-motion models (GMMs) considered applicable for the southeastern Australian (SEA) region. Some GMMs developed for ENA and for SEA provide reasonable estimates of the recorded ground motions of spectral acceleration within epicentral distances of approximately 100 km. The mean weighted of the Next Generation Attenuation-East GMM suite, recently developed for stable ENA, performs relatively poorly for the 2012 Moe earthquake sequence, particularly for short-period accelerations.

Prior to the development of Australian-specific magnitude formulae, the 1935 magnitude corrections by Charles Richter – originally developed for southern California – was almost exclusively used to calculate earthquake magnitudes throughout Australia prior to the 1990s. Due to the difference in ground-motion attenuation between southern California and much of Australia, many historical earthquake magnitudes are likely to be overestimated in the Australian earthquake catalogue. A method has been developed that corrects local magnitudes using the difference between the original (inappropriate) magnitude corrections and the Australian-specific corrections at a distance determined by the nearest recording station likely to have recorded the earthquake. These corrections have reduced the rates of local magnitudes of 4.5 in the historical catalogue by about 30% since 1900, while the number of magnitude 5.0 earthquakes has reduced by about 60% in the same time period. The reduction in the number of moderate-to-large-magnitude earthquakes over the instrumental period yields long-term earthquake rates that are more consistent with present-day rates, since the development of Australian-specific magnitude formulae. The adjustment of historical earthquake magnitudes is important for seismic hazard assessments, which assume a Poisson distribution of earthquakes in space and time.

Seismic hazard modelling is a multi-disciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such seismic hazard models consist of a probabilistic framework that models the flow of uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model-components developed from earth science: seismic source models, and ground motion prediction models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the length of the forecasting time-window, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA hereafter) consider forecasting probabilities of ground shaking in time windows of 30 to 50 years. These types of models are the target of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of such a modelling have largely remained unchanged since they were first developed more than 50 years ago, we will review the most recent initiatives which are facing the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in our scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time-independent hazard to forecasts that are time-dependent and specific to the time-period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science-driven models which integrate at best all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the source and ground motion components of the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the hazard model to quantify the consistency and skill of the hazard model. We review the state-of-the-art of the national seismic hazard modeling, and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges.

The Philippine archipalego is tectonically complex and seismically hazardous, yet few seismic hazard assessments have provided national coverage. This paper presents an updated probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the nation. Active shallow crustal seismicity is modeled by faults and gridded point sources accounting for spatially variable occurrence rates. Subduction interfaces are modelled with faults of complex geometry. Intraslab seismicity is modeled by ruptures filling the slab volume. Source geometries and earthquake rates are derived from seismicity catalogs, geophysical datasets, and historic-to-paleoseismic constraints on fault slip rates. The ground motion characterization includes models designed for global use, with partial constraint by residual analysis. Shallow crustal faulting near metropolitan Manila, Davao, and Cebu dominates shaking hazard. In a few places, peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on rock reaches 1.0 g. The results of this study may assist in calculating the design base shear in the National Structural Code of the Philippines.

<p>As part of the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA), we compiled the geographic information system (GIS) dataset to enable end-users to view and interrogate the NSHA18 outputs on a spatially enabled platform. It is intended to ensure the NSHA18 outputs are openly available, discoverable and accessible to both internal and external users. <p>This geospatial product is derived from the dataset generated through the development of the NSHA18 and contains uniform probability hazard maps for a 10% and 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. These maps are calculated for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and a range of response spectral periods, Sa(T), for T = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 s. Additionally, hazard curves for each ground-motion intensity measure as well as uniform hazard spectra at the nominated exceedance probabilities are calculated for key localities.

As part of the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA), we compiled the geographic information system (GIS) dataset to enable end-users to view and interrogate the NSHA18 outputs on a spatially enabled platform. It is intended to ensure the NSHA18 outputs are openly available, discoverable and accessible to both internal and external users. This geospatial product is derived from the dataset generated through the development of the NSHA18 and contains uniform probability hazard maps for a 10% and 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. These maps are calculated for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and a range of response spectral periods, Sa(T), for T = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 s. Additionally, hazard curves for each ground-motion intensity measure as well as uniform hazard spectra at the nominated exceedance probabilities are calculated for key localities.

At its nearest, northern Australia is just over 400 km from an active convergent plate margin. This complex and unique tectonic region combines active subduction and the collision of the Sunda-Banda Arc with the Precambrian North Australian Craton (NAC) near the Timor Trough and continues through to the New Guinea Highlands. Ground-motions generated from earthquakes on these structures have particular significance for northern Australian communities and infrastructure projects, with several large earthquakes in the Banda Arc region having caused ground-shaking-related damage in the northern Australian city of Darwin over the historical period. There are very few, if any, present-day tectonic analogs where cold cratonic crust abuts a convergent tectonic margin with subduction and continent-continent collision. Ground motions recorded from earthquakes in typical subduction environments are highly attenuated as they travel through young sediments associated with forearc accretionary prisms and volcanic back-arc regions. In contrast, seismic energy from earthquakes in the northern Australian plate margin region are efficiently channelled through the low-attenuation NAC, which acts as a waveguide for high-frequency earthquake shaking. As such, it is difficult to select models appropriate to the region for seismic hazard assessments. The development of a far-field ground-motion model to support future seismic hazard assessments for northern Australia is discussed. In general, the new model predicts larger ground motions in Australia from plate margin sources than models used for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment of Australia, none of which were considered fully appropriate for the tectonic environment. Short-period ground motions are strongly dependent on hypocentral depth and are significantly higher than predictions from commonly-used intraslab ground-motion models at comparable distances. The depth dependence in ground motion diminishes with increasing spectra periods. <b>Cite this article as</b> Allen, T. I. (2021). A Far-Field Ground-Motion Model for the North Australian Craton from Plate-Margin Earthquakes, <i>Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. </i><b> 112</b>, 1041–1059, doi: 10.1785/0120210191

Seismic hazard models, commonly produced through probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, are used to establish earthquake loading requirements for the built environment. However, there is considerable uncertainty in developing seismic hazard models, which require assumptions on seismicity rates and ground-motion models (GMMs) based on the best evidence available to hazard analysts. This paper explores several area-based tests of long-term seismic hazard forecasts for the Australian continent. ShakeMaps are calculated for all earthquakes of MW 4.25 and greater within approximately 200 km of the Australian coastline using the observed seismicity in the past 50 years (1970-2019). A “composite ShakeMap” is generated that extracts the maximum peak ground acceleration “observed” in this 50-year period for any site within the continent. The fractional exceedance area of this composite map is compared with four generations of Australian seismic hazard maps for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (~1/500 annual exceedance probability) developed since 1990. In general, all these seismic hazard models appear to be conservative relative to the observed ground motions that are estimated to have occurred in the last 50 years. To explore aspects of possible prejudice in this study, the variability in ground-motion exceedance was explored using the Next Generation Attenuation-East GMMs developed for the central and eastern United States. The sensitivity of these results is also tested with the interjection of a rare scenario earthquake with an expected regional recurrence of approximately 5,000 - 10,000 years. While these analyses do not provide a robust assessment of the performance of the candidate seismic hazard for any given location, they do provide—to the first order—a guide to the performance of the respective maps at a continental scale. This paper was presented at the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2021 Virtual Conference, Nov 25 – 26.

A database of recordings from moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes is compiled for earthquakes in western and central Australia. Data are mainly recorded by Australian National Seismograph Network (ANSN), complemented with data from temporary deployments, and covering the period of 1990 to 2019. The dataset currently contains 1497 earthquake recordings from 164 earthquakes with magnitudes from MW 2.5 to 6.1, and hypocentral distances up to 1500 km. The time-series data are consistently processed to correct for the instrument response and to reduce the effect of background noise. A range of ground-motion parameters in the time and frequency domains are calculated and stored in the database. Numerous near-source recordings exceed peak accelerations of 0.10 g and range up to 0.66 g, while the maximum peak velocity of the dataset exceeds 27 cm/s. In addition to its utility for engineering design, the dataset compiled herein will improve characterisation of ground-motion attenuation in the region and will provide an excellent supplement to ground-motion datasets collected in analogue seismotectonic regions worldwide. This paper was presented at the Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2021 Virtual Conference, Nov 25 – 26.