Geoscience Australia has recently released the 2012 version of the National Earthquake Hazard Map of Australia. Among other applications, the map is a key component of Australia's earthquake loading code AS1170.4. In this presentation we will provide an overview of the new maps and how they were put together. The new maps take advantage of the significant improvements in both the data sets and models used for earthquake hazard assessment in Australia since the current map in AS1170.4 was produced. These include: - An additional 20+ years of earthquake observations - Improved methods of declustering earthquake catalogues and calculating earthquake recurrence - Ground motion prediction equations (i.e. attenuation equations) based on observed strong motions instead of intensity - Revised earthquake source zones - Improved maximum magnitude earthquake estimates based on palaeoseismology - The use of open source software for undertaking probabilistic seismic hazard assessment which promotes testability and repeatability Hazard maps will be presented for a range of response spectral acceleration (RSA) periods between 0.0 and 1.0s and for multiple return periods between a few hundred to a few thousand years. These maps will be compared with the current earthquake hazard map in AS1170.4. For a return period of 500 years, the hazard values in the 0.0s RSA period map were generally lower than the hazard values in the current AS1170.4 map. By contrast the 0.2s RSA period hazard values were generally higher.

Compressional deformation is a common phase in the post-rift evolution of passive margins and rift systems. The central west Western Australian margin, between Geraldton and Karratha, provides an excellent example of strain partitioning between inverting passive margin crust and adjacent oceanic and continental crust. The distribution of contemporary seismicity in the region indicates a concentration of strain release within the basins diminishing eastward into the cratons. Very few data exist to quantify uplift or slip rates, however this pattern can be qualitatively demonstrated by tectonic landforms which indicate that the last century or so of seismicity is representative of patterns of Neogene and younger deformation. Pleistocene marine terraces on the western side of Cape Range indicate uplift rates of several tens of metres per million years, with similar deformation resulting in sub-aerial emergence of Miocene strata on Barrow Island and elsewhere. In the southern Carnarvon Basin, marine strandlines of unknown age are displaced by a few tens of metres, indicating uplift rates an order of magnitude lower than further west. Relief production rates in the western Yilgarn Craton are lower still - numerous scarps (e.g. Mt Narryer) appear to relate individually to <10 m of displacement across Neogene strata. The en echelon arrangement of such features distinguish them from those representing strain concentration in the craton proper, where scarps are isolated and typically <5 m high. Quantitative analysis of time-averaged deformation preserved in the aforementioned landforms, including study of scarp length as a proxy for earthquake magnitude, has the potential to provide useful constraint on seismic hazard assessments in a region which contains major population centres and nationally significant infrastructure.

Since the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, understanding the potential for tsunami impact on coastlines has become a high priority for Australia and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Tsunami warning systems have a need to rapidly assess the potential impact of specific events, and hazard assessments require an understanding of all potential events that might be of concern. Both of these needs can be addressed through numerical modelling, but there are often significant uncertainties associated with the three physical properties that culminate in tsunami impact: excitation, propagation and runup. This talk will focus on the first of these, and attempt to establish that seismic models of the tsunami source are adequate for rapidly and accurately establishing initial conditions for forecasting tsunami impacts at regional and teletsunami distances. Specifically, we derive fault slip models via inversion of teleseismic waveform data, and use these slip models to compute seafloor deformation that is used as the initial condition for tsunami propagation. The resulting tsunami waveforms are compared with observed waveforms recorded by ocean bottom pressure recorders (BPRs). We show that, at least for the large megathrust earthquakes that are the most frequent source of damaging tsunami, the open-ocean tsunami recorded by the BPRs are well predicted by the seismic source models. For smaller earthquakes, or those which occur on steeply dipping faults, however, the excitation and propagation of the resulting tsunami can be significantly influenced by 3D hydrodynamics and by dispersion, respectively. This makes it mode difficult to predict the tsunami waveforms.

This paper describes the methods used to define earthquake source zones and calculate their recurrence parameters (a, b, Mmax). These values, along with the ground motion relations, effectively define the final hazard map. Definition of source zones is a highly subjective process, relying on seismology and geology to provide some quantitative guidance. Similarly the determination of Mmax is often subjective. Whilst the calculation of a and b is quantitative, the assumptions inherent in the available methods need to be considered when choosing the most appropriate one. For the new map we have maximised quantitative input into the definition of zones and their parameters. The temporal and spatial Poisson statistical properties of Australia's seismicity, along with models of intra-plate seismicity based on results from neotectonic, geodetic and computer modelling studies of stable continental crust, suggest a multi-layer source zonation model is required to account for the seismicity. Accordingly we propose a three layer model consisting of three large background seismicity zones covering 100% of the continent, 25 regional scale source zones covering ~50% of the continent, and 44 hotspot zones covering 2% of the continent. A new algorithm was developed to calculate a and b. This algorithm was designed to minimise the problems with both the maximum likelihood method (which is sensitive to the effects of varying magnitude completeness at small magnitudes) and the least squares regression method (which is sensitive to the presence of outlier large magnitude earthquakes). This enabled fully automated calculation of a and b parameters for all sources zones. The assignment of Mmax for the zones was based on the results of a statistical analysis of neotectonic fault scarps.

The tectonic origin, paleoearthquake histories and slip rates of six normal faults (referred to here as the Rahotu, Oaonui, Kina, Kiri, Ihaia and Pihama faults) have been examined for up to ~26 kyr within the Taranaki Rift, New Zealand. A minimum of 13 ground-surface rupturing paleoearthquakes have been recognised on four of the faults using analysis of displaced late Quaternary stratigraphy and landforms. These data, in combination with 21 new radiocarbon dates, constrain the timing, slip and magnitude of each earthquake. The faults have low throw rates (~0.1-0.8 mm/yr) and appear to be buried near the Mt Taranaki volcanic cone. Recurrence intervals between earthquakes on individual faults typically range from 3-10 kyr (average ~ 6 kyr), with slip/earthquake ranging from ~0.3-1.5 m (average ~0.7 m). Recurrence intervals and slip/earthquake typically vary by up to a factor of three on individual faults, with only the Oaonui Fault displaying near-characteristic slip (of about 0.5 m) during successive earthquakes. The timing and slip of earthquakes on individual faults appear to have been interdependent, with each event possibly relieving stress and decreasing the likelihood of additional earthquakes across the system. Earthquake magnitudes are estimated to be M 6.5-6.7. The dating resolution of paleoearthquakes is generally ±1-2 kyr and is presently too imprecise to test the temporal relations between seismic events and either volcanic eruptions or lahars formed by debris avalanches during cone collapse. It is unlikely, however, that formation of the ~7.8 kyr Opua Formation lahar was triggered by a large earthquake on the Rahotu, Oaonui or Kina faults which, of the faults studied, are farthest from the Mt Taranaki volcanic cone.

The contemporary crustal stress regime in south-eastern Australia can be traced back to the terminal Miocene. Increased coupling of the Australian and Pacific Plate boundary at this time resulted in regional-scale tilting, local uplift and erosion, and in the formation of unconformities in southern Australian basins. In the onshore Gippsland Basin the unconformity surface is overlain by an extensive sheet of fluvial sediment known as the Haunted Hill Formation (HHF). Open folds and flexures developed within the HHF over blind reverse and reverse oblique faults provide a record of deformation spanning much of the neotectonic period. The predominance of flexures and folds rather than discrete faulting at the surface complicates the assessment of slip rates over the last few seismic cycles. However, ages from an undeformed fill terrace bordering the Morwell River and crossing the Morwell Monocline suggest that it has been a minimum of 70 ka since the last deformation event on at least this structure. Stream profiles crossing the Snake Ridge, Yallourn and Rosedale Monoclines similarly reveal no evidence for recent tectonic displacement. Cosmogenic radionuclide (10Be and 26Al) burial ages of siliceous sediments sampled from tectonically uplifted HHF on the Yallourn, Morwell and Snake Ridge Monoclines provide constraint on the long-term evolution of these structures. Combined with stratigraphic and tectonic records from the offshore Gippsland Basin, these data provide a basis for informed seismic hazard assessment.

The Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges of South Australia are bound on the east and the west by reverse faults that thrust Proterozoic and/or Cambrian basement rocks over Quaternary sediment. These faults range from a few tens to almost one hundred kilometres in length and tend to be spaced significantly less than a fault length apart. In the few instances where the thickness of overthrust sediment can be estimated, total neotectonic throws are in the order of 100-200 m. Slip rates on individual faults range from 0.02-0.17 mm/a, with one unconfirmed estimate as high as 0.7 mm/a. Taking into account the intermittent nature of faulting in Australia, it has been suggested that 30-50% of the present-day elevation of the Flinders and Mount Lofty Ranges relative to adjacent piedmonts has developed in the last 5 Ma. Uplifted last interglacial shorelines (ca. 120 ka) along the southern coastline of the Mount Lofty Ranges indicate that deformation is ongoing. Palaeoseismological investigations provide important insight into the characteristics of the large earthquakes responsible for deformation events. Single event displacements of 1.8 m have been measured on the Williamstown-Meadows Fault and the Alma Fault, with the former relating to a surface rupture length of a least 25 km. Further to the south in Adelaide's eastern suburbs, a 5 km section of scarp, potentially relating to a single event slip on the Eden-Burnside Fault, is preserved in ca. 120 ka sediments. Where the Eden-Burnside Fault meets the coast at Port Stanvac 20 kilometres south, the last interglacial shoreline is uplifted by 2 m relative to its expected position. At Normanville, on the uplifted side of the Willunga Fault, the last interglacial shoreline is over 10 m above its expected position, implying perhaps five or more surface rupturing events in the last ca. 120 ka on this >50 km long fault. On the eastern range front, a very large single event displacement of 7 m is inferred on the 54 km long Milendella Fault, and the 79 km long Encounter Fault displaces last interglacial shorelines by up to 11 m. There is abundant evidence for large surface-breaking earthquakes on many faults within 100 km of the Adelaide CBD. Slip rates are low by plate margin standards, implying a low rate of recurrence for M7+ events on individual faults (perhaps 10,000 years or more). However, a proximal moderate-sized event or even a large event at distance has the potential to cause significant damage to Adelaide, particularly given its construction types and local site conditions.

Slope failures with associated submarine slides, sediment accumulation along contourite drifts and focus seepage features have been interpreted from new sub-bottom profiler, multibeam bathymetry, side-scan sonar, echo-sounder data together with geochemical analyses of sediment samples along the continental slope off Western Australia. The processes recognised show the implication of slope instability and hydrocarbon seepage in shaping the continental slope geomorphology. The spatial correlation between regional seafloor features and reactivation of pre-existing faults suggests tectonics and seismic activity being the main potential triggering parameters for slope processes offshore northern Perth Basin. Geomechanical models have been used to test potential up-fault leakage using the present-day stress field and the results correlate with the seepage features observed in the study area. The marine survey results provide additional support for the presence of an active petroleum system in the northern Perth Basin; and combined with geomechanical models, the study helps reducing petroleum exploration and geohazards riks.

This paper discusses two of the key inputs used to produce the draft National Earthquake Hazard Map for Australia: 1) the earthquake catalogue and 2) the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The composite catalogue used draws upon information from three key catalogues for Australian and regional earthquakes; a catalogue of Australian earthquakes provided by Gary Gibson, Geoscience Australia's QUAKES, and the International Seismological Centre. A complex logic is then applied to select preferred location and magnitude of earthquakes depending on spatial and temporal criteria. Because disparate local magnitude equations were used through time, we performed first order magnitude corrections to standardise magnitude estimates to be consistent with the attenuation of contemporary local magnitude ML formulae. Whilst most earthquake magnitudes do not change significantly, our methodology can result in reductions of up to one local magnitude unit in certain cases. Subsequent ML-MW (moment magnitude) corrections were applied. The catalogue was declustered using a magnitude dependent spatio-temporal filter. Previously identified blasts were removed and a time-of-day filter was developed to further deblast the catalogue.

This paper describes the methods used to define earthquake source zones and calculate their recurrence parameters (a, b, Mmax). These values, along with the ground motion relations, effectively define the final hazard map. Definition of source zones is a highly subjective process, relying on seismology and geology to provide some quantitative guidance. Similarly the determination of Mmax is often subjective. Whilst the calculation of a and b is quantitative, the assumptions inherent in the available methods need to be considered when choosing the most appropriate one. For the new map we have maximised quantitative input into the definition of zones and their parameters. The temporal and spatial Poisson statistical properties of Australia's seismicity, along with models of intra-plate seismicity based on results from neotectonic, geodetic and computer modelling studies of stable continental crust, suggest a multi-layer source zonation model is required to account for the seismicity. Accordingly we propose a three layer model consisting of three large background seismicity zones covering 100% of the continent, 25 regional scale source zones covering ~50% of the continent, and 44 hotspot zones covering 2% of the continent. A new algorithm was developed to calculate a and b. This algorithm was designed to minimise the problems with both the maximum likelihood method (which is sensitive to the effects of varying magnitude completeness at small magnitudes) and the least squares regression method (which is sensitive to the presence of outlier large magnitude earthquakes). This enabled fully automated calculation of a and b parameters for all sources zones. The assignment of Mmax for the zones was based on the results of a statistical analysis of neotectonic fault scarps.