Legacy product - no abstract available

Legacy product - no abstract available

One of the important inputs to a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is the expected rate at which earthquakes within the study region. The rate of earthquakes is a function of the rate at which the crust is being deformed, mostly by tectonic stresses. This paper will present two contrasting methods of estimating the strain rate at the scale of the Australian continent. The first method is based on statistically analysing the recently updated national earthquake catalogue, while the second uses a geodynamic model of the Australian plate and the forces that act upon it. For the first method, we show a couple of examples of the strain rates predicted across Australia using different statistical techniques. However no matter what method is used, the measurable seismic strain rates are typically in the range of 10-16s-1 to around 10-18s-1 depending on location. By contrast, the geodynamic model predicts a much more uniform strain rate of around 10-17s-1 across the continent. The level of uniformity of the true distribution of long term strain rate in Australia is likely to be somewhere between these two extremes. Neither estimate is consistent with the Australian plate being completely rigid and free from internal deformation (i.e. a strain rate of exactly zero). This paper will also give an overview of how this kind of work affects the national earthquake hazard map and how future high precision geodetic estimates of strain rate should help to reduce the uncertainty in this important parameter for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments.

The aim of the NPE10 exercise is the continuation of the multi - technology approach started with NPE09. For NPE10, a simulated release of radionuclides was the trigger for the scenario in which an REB-listed seismo-acoustic event with ML between 3.0 and 4.8 was the source. Assumptions made were: A single seismo-acoustic signal-generating underground detonation event with continuous leak of noble gas, radionuclide detections only from simulated release. Using atmospheric transport modelling the IDC identified 48 candidate seismo-acoustic events from data fusion of the seismo-acoustic REBs with radionuclide detections. We were able to reduce the number of candidate seismo-acoustic point sources from 48 to 2 by firstly rejecting events that did not appear consistently in the data fusion bulletins; secondly, reducing the time-window under consideration through analysis of xenon isotope ratios; and thirdly, by clustering the remaining earthquakes and aftershocks and applying forward tracking to these (clustered) candidate events, using the Hy-split and ARGOS modelling tools. The two candidate events that were not screened by RN analysis were Wyoming REB events 6797924 (23-Oct) and 6797555 (24-Oct). Event 6797555 was identified as an earthquake on the basis of depth (identification of candidate depth phases at five teleseismic stations); regional Pn/Lg and mb:Ms - all indicating an earthquake source. Event 6797924, however, was not screened and from our analysis would constitute a candidate event for an On-Site Inspection under the Treaty.

Geoscience Australia has more than 50 years experience in the acquisition of deep crustal onshore seismic data, beginning with analogue low-fold explosive data, progressing through digital explosive data, and finally, in the last 12 years, moving into the digital vibroseis era. Over the years, shot data in a variety of formats has been recovered from a variety of media, both in-house and by external contractors. Processing through to final stack stage was used as a QC tool for transcription of some of the older analogue surveys, and proved so successful that the reprocessed data was released for interpretation. In other cases, more recent digital explosive surveys have benefited from reprocessing using modern processing algorithms. Key modules in Paradigm Geophysical's Disco/Focus software used by Geoscience Australia for reprocessing old data include refraction statics, spectral equalisation, stacking velocity analysis, surface consistent automatic residual statics and coherency enhancement. Coherency enhancement is commonly carried out on both NMO corrected shots and stack sections, with several iterations of NMO and autostatics. With the irregular offset distribution and low fold of legacy explosive data, dip moveout (DMO) correction is not possible, but due to the shorter spreads is not as critical as for modern high fold vibroseis data. Nevertheless, 'poor man's DMO' has proved successful in the shallow section, by the simple expedient of omitting 25% of the traces with the longest offsets.

This paper describes the methods used to define earthquake source zones and calculate their recurrence parameters (a, b, Mmax). These values, along with the ground motion relations, effectively define the final hazard map. Definition of source zones is a highly subjective process, relying on seismology and geology to provide some quantitative guidance. Similarly the determination of Mmax is often subjective. Whilst the calculation of a and b is quantitative, the assumptions inherent in the available methods need to be considered when choosing the most appropriate one. For the new map we have maximised quantitative input into the definition of zones and their parameters. The temporal and spatial Poisson statistical properties of Australia's seismicity, along with models of intra-plate seismicity based on results from neotectonic, geodetic and computer modelling studies of stable continental crust, suggest a multi-layer source zonation model is required to account for the seismicity. Accordingly we propose a three layer model consisting of three large background seismicity zones covering 100% of the continent, 25 regional scale source zones covering ~50% of the continent, and 44 hotspot zones covering 2% of the continent. A new algorithm was developed to calculate a and b. This algorithm was designed to minimise the problems with both the maximum likelihood method (which is sensitive to the effects of varying magnitude completeness at small magnitudes) and the least squares regression method (which is sensitive to the presence of outlier large magnitude earthquakes). This enabled fully automated calculation of a and b parameters for all sources zones. The assignment of Mmax for the zones was based on the results of a statistical analysis of neotectonic fault scarps.

This final paper for the session presents the results of the new draft earthquake hazard assessment for Australia and compares them to the previous AS1170.4 hazard values. Draft hazard maps will be presented for several spectral periods (0.0, 0.2 and 1.0 s) at multiple return periods (500, 2500 and 10,000 years). These maps will be compared with both the current earthquake hazard used in AS1170.4 and with other assessments of earthquake hazard in Australia. In general the hazard in the draft map is higher in the western cratonic parts of Australia than it is in the eastern non-cratonic parts of Australia. Where regional source zones are included, peaks in hazard values in the map are generally comparable to those in the current AS1170.4 map. When seismicity 'hotspot zones are included, as described in the previous paper, several of them produce much higher hazard peaks than any in the AS1170.4 map. However, such hotspots do not affect as large an area as many of those in the current AS1170.4 map. Finally, hazard curves for different cities will also be presented and compared to those predicted by the method outlined in AS1170.4.

The inventory of over 200 fault scarps captured in GA's Australian neotectonics database has been used to estimate the maximum magnitude earthquake (Mmax) across the Stable Continental Regions (SCRs) of Australia. This was done by first grouping the scarps according to the spatial divisions described in the recently published neotectonics domain model and calculating the 75th percentile scarp length for each domain. The mean Mmax was then found by averaging the maximum magnitudes predicted from a range of different published relations. Results range between Mw 7.0-7.5±0.2. This suggests that potentially catastrophic earthquakes are possible Australia-wide. These data can form the basis for future seismic hazard assessments, including those for building design codes, both in Australia and analogous SCRs worldwide.

Legacy product - no abstract available

An assumption of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is that within each source zone the random earthquakes of the past are considered a good predictor of future seismicity. Random earthquakes suggest a Poisson process. If the source zone does not follow a Poisson process then the resulting PSHA might not be valid. The tectonics of a region will effect its spatial distributions. Earthquakes occurring on a single fault, or uniformly distributed, or clustered or random will each have a distinctive spatial distribution. Here we describe a method for both identifying and delineating earthquake clusters and then characterising them. We divide the region into N cells and by counting the number of earthquakes in each cell we obtain a distribution of the number of cells versus the number of earthquakes per cell. This can then be compared to the theoretical Poisson distribution. Areas which deviate from the theoretical Poisson distribution, can then be delineated. This suggests a statistically robust method for determining source zones. Preliminary results suggest that areas of clustering (eg. SWSZ) can also be modelled as a Poisson process which differs from the larger regional Poisson process. The effect of aftershocks and swarms are also investigated.