The Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) is a stochastic modelling system intended for the evaluation of hazard and risk associated with tropical cyclones, specifically focused on wind hazard. It allows users to simulate a large (order thousands of years) catalogue of tropical cyclone events that are statistically similar to the historical tropical cyclone record (or other input tropical cyclone records). TCRM has been used to evaluate wind hazard at local and regional scales to inform risk assessments and multi-hazard mapping exercises. By using data extracted from global climate models, TCRM can also be used to evaluate future changes in TC hazard and risk. Users can also simulate single TC events to evaluate impacts in near-real time to inform emergency management and response activities. The TCRM code is written in Python, and can be executed on a range of computing architectures - massively parallel systems (e.g. NCI National Facility) to desktop computers - and operating systems (currently Windows and *NIX systems). By carefully designing and developing the software, we have accommodated a wide audience of potential users.

Indonesia is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. For 10 years the Australian and Indonesian governments, science agencies and universities, have partnered to strengthen disaster management in Indonesia. Working together on science, technology and policy has greatly improved decision making around disaster management in Indonesia. By helping people prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters, more lives can be saved, impacts on the most vulnerable members of society reduced, and infrastructure can be protected. Our partnership has concentrated on strengthening the evidence base for formed disaster management by improving: 1) hazard information for earthquake, tsunami, volcano and flood 2) spatial data for exposure (population, building, roads and infrastructure) 3) decision support tool (InaSAFE) to inform disaster response and management decisions. This document outlines the highlights of the Indonesian-Australian collaboration on the use of science and technology in disaster management.

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yasi crossed Queensland's Cassowary Coast during the night of the 2nd and 3rd of February, 2011. The cyclone was forecast by BoM (2011) to be a severe storm with wind gusts forecast to exceed the design gust wind speeds for houses set out in AS4055. Following the passage of the cyclone, it was evident that the severe wind and large coastal storm surge had caused significant damage to the region's building stock. Geoscience Australia (GA), together with collaborators from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand (NIWA), Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and Maddocks & Associates, undertook a survey of damage to the region's buildings caused by severe wind and storm surge.

<p>Geoscience Australia has recently released its 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18). Results from the NSHA18 indicate significantly lower seismic hazard across almost all Australian localities at the 1/500 annual exceedance probability level relative to the factors adopted for the current Australian Standard AS1170.4–2007 (R2018). These new hazard estimates, coupled with larger kp factors, have challenged notions of seismic hazard in Australia in terms of the recurrence of damaging ground motions. As a consequence, the new hazard estimates have raised questions over the appropriateness of the prescribed probability level used in the AS1170.4 to determine appropriate seismic demands for the design of ordinary-use structures. Therefore, it is suggested that the ground-motion exceedance probability used in the current AS1170.4 be reviewed in light of the recent hazard assessment and the expected performance of modern buildings for rarer ground motions. <p>Whilst adjusting the AS1170.4 exceedance probability level would be a major departure from previous earthquake loading standards, it would bring it into line with other international building codes in similar tectonic environments. Additionally, it would offer opportunities to further modernise how seismic demands are considered in Australian building design. In particular, the authors highlight the following additional opportunities: 1) the use of uniform hazard spectra to replace and simplify the spectral shape factors, which do not deliver uniform hazard across all natural periods; 2) updated site amplification factors to ensure continuity with modern ground-motion models, and; 3) the potential to define design ground motions in terms of uniform collapse risk rather than uniform hazard. Estimation of seismic hazard at any location is an uncertain science. However, as our knowledge improves, our estimates of the hazard will converge on the actual – but unknowable – (time independent) hazard. It is therefore prudent to regularly update the estimates of the seismic demands in our building codes using the best available evidence-based methods and models.

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach. Appeared online in Front. Earth Sci., 29 April 2021

On 23 March 2012, at 09:25 UTC, an Mw 5.4 earthquake occurred in the eastern Musgrave Ranges of north-central South Australia, near the community of Ernabella (Pukatja). Several small communities in this remote part of central Australia reported the tremor, but there were no reports of injury or significant damage. This was the largest earthquake recorded on mainland Australia in the past 15 years and resulted in the formation of a 1.6 km long surface deformation zone that included reverse-fault scarps with a maximum vertical displacement of more than 0.5 m, extensive ground cracking, and numerous rock falls. The earthquake occurred in non-extended stable continental region (SCR) cratonic crust, more than 1900 km from the nearest plate boundary. Surface deformation from the Ernabella earthquake provides additional constraint on relations of surface-rupture length to earthquake magnitude. Such relations aid in interpreting Australia’s rich record of prehistoric seismicity and contribute to improved estimates of SCR seismic hazard worldwide. Based upon an analysis of new and reinterpretation of existing surface-rupture length data, faults in non-extended stable cratonic Australia appear to produce longer surface ruptures (for earthquakes larger than Mw ∼ 6:5) than rupture lengths estimated using existing moment-to rupture length scaling relations. The implication is that the estimated maximum, or characteristic, magnitude of paleoearthquakes in such settings may be overestimated where the estimate is based only on the length of the prehistoric fault scarp.

PTHA18 estimates the frequency with which tsunamis of any given size occur in deep waters around the Australian coastline. To do this it simulates hundreds of thousands of possible tsunami scenarios from key earthquake sources in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and models the frequency with which these occur.

This metadata relates to the ANUGA hydrodynamic modelling results for Busselton, south-west Western Australia. The results consist of inundation extent and peak momentum gridded spatial data for each of the ten modelling scenarios. The scenarios are based on Tropical Cyclone (TC) Alby that impacted Western Australia in 1978 and the combination of TC Alby with a track and time shift, sea-level rise and riverine flood scenarios. The inundation extent defines grid cells that were identified as wet within each of the modelling scenarios. The momentum results define the maximum momentum value recorded for each inundated grid cell within each modelling scenario. Refer to the professional opinion (Coastal inundation modelling for Busselton, Western Australia, under current and future climate) for details of the project.

A compilation of short animations, describing the key processes involved in tsunami generation.

A short film about a scientific project aimed at enhancing risk analysis capacities for flood, severe wind from tropical cyclones and earthquake in the Greater Metropolitan Manila Area. Manila is one of the world's megacities, and the Greater Metro Manila Area is prone to natural disasters. These events may have devastating consequences for individuals, communities, buildings, infrastructure and economic development. Understanding the risk is essential for implementing Disaster Risk Reduction programs. In partnership with AusAID, Geoscience Australia is providing technical leadership for risk analysis projects in the Asia-Pacific Region. In the Philippines, Geoscience Australia is engaging with Government of the Philippines agencies to deliver the "Enhancing Risk Analysis Capacities for Flood, Tropical Cyclone Severe Wind and Earthquake in the Greater Metro Manila Area" Project.