Severe TC Vance was one of the most intense cyclones to impact mainland Australia. The observed damage to buildings could be explained in terms of structural performance of those buildings. Combining the structural vulnerability of housing with an estimate of the maximum wind gusts, we can explore the possible impacts that a repeat of Vance would cause in Exmouth, and compare the outcomes with what occurred in 1999. The analysis of the impacts of TC Vance on present-day Exmouth shows that very few houses would be completely destroyed. Not surprisingly, older houses (pre-1980’s construction era, excluding the US Navy block houses) would dominate those destroyed, and most likely the timber-framed style houses, many of which were substantially damaged in TC Vance. Published in the Australian Journal of Emergency Management July 2019 edition

The Severe Wind Hazard Assessment project aims to provide DFES with intelligence on the scale of impacts that could arise from major tropical cyclone events in communities along the northwest and western coast of WA. We simulated category 3 and 5 scenarios in the northwest, and category 1 and 3 scenarios down the west coast. Simulations included translating the local-scale wind fields into the level of damage to residential housing, through the application of vulnerability models applied to residential buildings which had been categorised on the basis of attributes such as construction era, roof type, wall type and location. Some scenarios produce impacts that are comparable to past events (e.g. the category 5 scenario for Exmouth is similar to TC Vance). Other scenarios are catastrophic, such as the category 3 scenario for Geraldton, where nearly all residential buildings in the city are extensively or completely damaged. The different outcomes for communities arises because of the different profiles of residential buildings in each community. Geraldton lies outside the cyclonic regions defined in AS/NZS 1170.2, so houses are not explicitly designed cope with to the extreme winds that can arise in TCs, hence major impacts were found there in our analysis. DFES used these scenarios to guide planning and preparations for events, such as TC Veronica in March 2019, guiding decisions on preparations and recovery options, which are explored in a companion paper. Abstract presented at the 2020 Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society 2020 National Conference (http://amos-2020.w.amos.currinda.com/)

Knowledge of the nature of buildings within CBD areas is fundamental to a broad range of decision making processes, including planning, emergency management and the mitigation of the impact of natural hazards. To support these activities, Geoscience Australia has developed a building information system called the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) which provides information on buildings across Australia. Most of the building level information in NEXIS is statistically derived, but efforts are being made to include more detailed information on the nature of individual buildings, particularly in CBD areas. This is being achieved in Hobart through field survey work.

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Tracy impacted Darwin early on Christmas Day, 1974. The magnitude of damage was such that Tracy remains deeply ingrained in the Australian psyche. Several factors contributed to the widespread damage, including the intensity of the cyclone and construction materials employed in Darwin at the time. Since 1974, the population of Darwin has grown rapidly, from 46,000 in 1974 to nearly 115,000 in 2006. If TC Tracy were to strike Darwin in 2008, the impacts could be catastrophic. We perform a validation of Geoscience Australia's Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) to assess the impacts TC Tracy would have on the 1974 landscape of Darwin, and compare the impacts to those determined from a post-impact survey. We then apply TCRM to the present-day landscape of Darwin to determine the damage incurred if a cyclone identical to TC Tracy impacted the city in 2008. In validating TCRM against the 1974 impact, we find an underestimate of the damage at 36% of replacement cost (RC), compared the survey estimate of 50-60% RC. Some of this deficit can be accounted for through the effects of large debris. Qualitatively, TCRM can spatially replicate the damage inflicted on Darwin by the small cyclone. The northern suburbs suffer the greatest damage, in line with the historical observations. For the 2008 scenario, TCRM indicates a nearly 90% reduction in the overall loss (% RC) over the Darwin region. Once again, the spatial nature of the damage is captured well, with the greatest damage incurred close to the eye of the cyclone. Areas that have been developed since 1974 such as Palmerston suffer very little damage due to the small extent of the severe winds. The northern suburbs, rebuilt in the years following TC Tracy, are much more resilient, largely due to the influence of very high building standards put in place between 1975 and 1980. Article published in the Australian Journal of Emergency Management

The Geological and Bioregional Assessments (GBA) Program is a series of independent scientific studies undertaken by Geoscience Australia and the CSIRO, supported by the Bureau of Meteorology, and managed by the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment. The Program consists of three stages across three regions with potential to deliver gas to the East Coast Gas Market. Stage 1 was a rapid regional prioritisation conducted by Geoscience Australia, to identify those sedimentary basins with the greatest potential to deliver shale and/or tight gas to the East Coast Gas Market within the next five to ten years. This prioritisation process assessed 27 onshore eastern and northern Australian basins with shale and/or tight gas potential. Further screening reduced this to a shortlist of nine basins where exploration was underway. The shortlisted basins were ranked on a number of criteria. The Cooper Basin, the Beetaloo Sub-basin and the Isa Superbasin were selected for more detailed assessment. Stage 2 of the program involved establishing a baseline understanding of the identified regions. Geoscience Australia produced regional geological evaluations and conceptualisations that inform the assessment of shale and/or tight gas prospectivity, ground- and surface-water impacts, and hydraulic fracturing models. Geoscience Australia’s relative prospectivity assessments provide an indication of where viable petroleum plays are most likely to be present. These data indicate areal and stratigraphic constraints that support the program’s further work in Stage 3, on understanding likely development scenarios, impact assessments, and causal pathways. <b>Citation:</b> Hall Lisa S., Orr Meredith L., Lech Megan E., Lewis Steven, Bailey Adam H. E., Owens Ryan, Bradshaw Barry E., Bernardel George (2021) Geological and Bioregional Assessments: assessing the prospectivity for tight, shale and deep-coal resources in the Cooper Basin, Beetaloo Subbasin and Isa Superbasin. <i>The APPEA Journal</i><b> 61</b>, 477-484. https://doi.org/10.1071/AJ20035

The National Hazard Impact Risk Service for Tropical Cyclone Event Impact provides information on the potential impact to residential separate houses due to severe winds. The information is derived from Bureau of Meteorology tropical cyclone forecast tracks, in combination with building location and attributes from the National Exposure Information System and vulnerability models to define the level of impact. Impact data is aggregated to Statistical Area Level 1, categorised into five qualitative levels of impact.

Knowledge of the nature of buildings within CBD areas is fundamental to a broad range of decision making processes, including planning, emergency management and the mitigation of the impact of natural hazards. To support these activities, Geoscience Australia has developed a building information system called the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) which provides information on buildings across Australia. Most of the building level information in NEXIS is statistically derived, but efforts are being made to include more detailed information on the nature of individual buildings, particularly in CBD areas. This is being achieved in Brisbane through field survey work.

<div>To set out how Geoscience Australia is meeting its vision for the Exploring for the Future program, we have summarised the ways our scientific activities, outputs and intended outcomes and impacts are linked, using the Impact Pathway diagram. This updated brochure includes program impact infographics.</div>

<div>Severe TC Ilsa crossed the Western Australian coastline approximately 120 km east of Port Hedland on Thursday 13 April 2023. Observations at Bedout Island were the highest wind speeds ever recorded on standard BoM instruments (gust wind speed of 289 km/h). In anticipation of the TC, residents in the mining township of Telfer were evacuated, along with a small number of evacuees in other townships (Marble Bar, South Hedland and Nullagine). As a category 5 TC, the threat of widespread destruction was front of mind for emergency managers in Western Australia.</div><div><br></div><div>Geoscience Australia (GA) has established the National Hazard Impact and Risk Service (NHIRS), which provides quantitative modelled impact forecast information for tropical cyclones, large-scale wind events and earthquakes in Australia. NHIRS has been used by the Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) Intelligence Unit to support operational resource planning for TC events.</div><div><br></div><div>In TC Ilsa, DFES Intelligence (and GA) officers reviewed the impact predictions in the days leading up to landfall. Genuine questions were asked about the level of predicted damage, which was almost negligible across northern WA in spite of the predicted landfall intensity. Why was that the case? Was the service operating as expected? This paper highlights the challenge of educating users on the utility of impact forecasting products and communicating the components that are integrated in the impact forecast. Presented at the 30th Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) 2024

The impact of seismic surveys on the catchability of marine fish is a contentious issue, with claims that seismic surveys may negatively affect catch rates. However little empirical evidence exists to quantify the impacts or determine potential causes. In this study, we used a 2-D seismic survey in the Gippsland Basin, Bass Strait, Australia in April 2015 as an opportunity to quantify fish behaviour (field-based) and commercial fisheries catch (desktop study) across the region before and after airgun operations. Three species found in abundance (gummy shark, swell shark, tiger flathead) were acoustically tagged and released within one of two acoustic arrays (experimental and control zone) and monitored before, during and after the seismic survey. In the field study, only 35% of the gummy sharks and 30% of the swell sharks were subsequently detected two days after release, although various individuals returned sporadically over the period of monitoring including during the seismic survey operations. Behaviour consistent with a possible response to the seismic survey operations was restricted to flathead which increased their swimming speed during the seismic survey period and changed their diel movement patterns after the survey. We also investigated the potential impacts of the seismic survey on catch rates using Commonwealth fisheries logbook data from Jan 2012 – Oct 2015. Fifteen species and two gear types (Danish seine, gillnet) were modelled to examine differences in catch rates before and after the seismic survey. The catch rates in the six months following the seismic survey were different than predicted in nine out of the 15 species examined, with six species (tiger flathead, goatfish, elephantfish, boarfish, broadnose shark and school shark) showing increases in catch following to the seismic survey, and three species (gummy shark, red gurnard, sawshark) showing reductions. Overall, we found little evidence consistent with behavioural or catch rate changes induced by the seismic survey in the targeted species, although behavioural data were limited because many sharks left the acoustic receiver array prior to the commencement of the seismic survey. <b>Citation:</b> Barry Bruce, Russ Bradford, Scott Foster, Kate Lee, Matt Lansdell, Scott Cooper, Rachel Przeslawski, Quantifying fish behaviour and commercial catch rates in relation to a marine seismic survey,<i> Marine Environmental Research</i>, Volume 140, 2018, Pages 18-30, ISSN 0141-1136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2018.05.005.