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Assessing the impacts of tropical cyclones

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Tracy impacted Darwin early on Christmas Day, 1974. The magnitude of damage was such that Tracy remains deeply ingrained in the Australian psyche. Several factors contributed to the widespread damage, including the intensity of the cyclone and construction materials employed in Darwin at the time. Since 1974, the population of Darwin has grown rapidly, from 46,000 in 1974 to nearly 115,000 in 2006. If TC Tracy were to strike Darwin in 2008, the impacts could be catastrophic.


We perform a validation of Geoscience Australia's Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) to assess the impacts TC Tracy would have on the 1974 landscape of Darwin, and compare the impacts to those determined from a post-impact survey. We then apply TCRM to the present-day landscape of Darwin to determine the damage incurred if a cyclone identical to TC Tracy impacted the city in 2008.


In validating TCRM against the 1974 impact, we find an underestimate of the damage at 36% of replacement cost (RC), compared the survey estimate of 50-60% RC. Some of this deficit can be accounted for through the effects of large debris. Qualitatively, TCRM can spatially replicate the damage inflicted on Darwin by the small cyclone. The northern suburbs suffer the greatest damage, in line with the historical observations.


For the 2008 scenario, TCRM indicates a nearly 90% reduction in the overall loss (% RC) over the Darwin region. Once again, the spatial nature of the damage is captured well, with the greatest damage incurred close to the eye of the cyclone. Areas that have been developed since 1974 such as Palmerston suffer very little damage due to the small extent of the severe winds. The northern suburbs, rebuilt in the years following TC Tracy, are much more resilient, largely due to the influence of very high building standards put in place between 1975 and 1980.


Article published in the Australian Journal of Emergency Management

Simple

Identification info

Date (Publication)
2008-01-01T00:00:00
Date (Revision)
2024-10-14T22:42:04
Citation identifier
Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/68173

Cited responsible party
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Author

Arthur, W.C.

1
Author

Schofield, A.

2
Author

Cechet, R.P.

3
Publisher

Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience

External Contact
Name

The Australian Journal of Emergency Management

Issue identification

Volume 23 Issue 4, 2008

Point of contact
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Point of contact

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice
Point of contact

Kendall, D.

Place and Communities Internal Contact
Topic category
  • Geoscientific information

Extent

Extent

N
S
E
W


Maintenance and update frequency
Unknown

Resource format

Title

Product data repository: Various Formats

Website

Data Store directory containing the digital product files

Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes

theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
  • EARTH SCIENCES

Keywords
  • tropical cyclones - TC

Keywords
  • tropical cyclone risk modelling - TCRM

Keywords
  • impacts of tropical cyclones

Keywords
  • wind field

Keywords
  • Published_External

Resource constraints

Title

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence

Alternate title

CC-BY

Edition

4.0

Website

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/

Access constraints
Restricted
Use constraints
License

Resource constraints

Title

Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem

Edition date
2018-11-01T00:00:00
Website

https://www.protectivesecurity.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx

Classification
Unclassified
Language
English
Character encoding
UTF8

Distribution Information

Distributor contact
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Distributor

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice facsimile
OnLine resource

Link to Journal

Link to Journal

Distribution format

Resource lineage

Statement

Unknown

Hierarchy level
Non geographic dataset
Other

External Publication

Description

Source data not available.

Metadata constraints

Title

Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem

Edition date
2018-11-01T00:00:00
Website

https://www.protectivesecurity.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx

Classification
Unclassified

Metadata

Metadata identifier
urn:uuid/a05f7892-dac3-7506-e044-00144fdd4fa6

Title

GeoNetwork UUID

Language
English
Character encoding
UTF8
Contact
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Point of contact

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice
Point of contact

Kendall, D.

Place and Communities Internal Contact

Type of resource

Resource scope
Document
Name

Journal Article

Alternative metadata reference

Title

Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with

uuid

Citation identifier
eCatId/68173

Metadata linkage

https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/a05f7892-dac3-7506-e044-00144fdd4fa6

Metadata linkage

https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/ofmJ3/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/a05f7892-dac3-7506-e044-00144fdd4fa6

Date info (Revision)
2018-04-11T04:54:53
Date info (Creation)
2008-09-15T00:00:00

Metadata standard

Title

AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-3

Title

Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014

Edition

Version 2.0, September 2018

Citation identifier
https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551

 
 

Spatial extent

N
S
E
W


Keywords

impacts of tropical cyclones tropical cyclone risk modelling - TCRM tropical cyclones - TC wind field
theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
EARTH SCIENCES

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