Product catalogue
Assessing the impacts of tropical cyclones
Tropical Cyclone (TC) Tracy impacted Darwin early on Christmas Day, 1974. The magnitude of damage was such that Tracy remains deeply ingrained in the Australian psyche. Several factors contributed to the widespread damage, including the intensity of the cyclone and construction materials employed in Darwin at the time. Since 1974, the population of Darwin has grown rapidly, from 46,000 in 1974 to nearly 115,000 in 2006. If TC Tracy were to strike Darwin in 2008, the impacts could be catastrophic.
We perform a validation of Geoscience Australia's Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) to assess the impacts TC Tracy would have on the 1974 landscape of Darwin, and compare the impacts to those determined from a post-impact survey. We then apply TCRM to the present-day landscape of Darwin to determine the damage incurred if a cyclone identical to TC Tracy impacted the city in 2008.
In validating TCRM against the 1974 impact, we find an underestimate of the damage at 36% of replacement cost (RC), compared the survey estimate of 50-60% RC. Some of this deficit can be accounted for through the effects of large debris. Qualitatively, TCRM can spatially replicate the damage inflicted on Darwin by the small cyclone. The northern suburbs suffer the greatest damage, in line with the historical observations.
For the 2008 scenario, TCRM indicates a nearly 90% reduction in the overall loss (% RC) over the Darwin region. Once again, the spatial nature of the damage is captured well, with the greatest damage incurred close to the eye of the cyclone. Areas that have been developed since 1974 such as Palmerston suffer very little damage due to the small extent of the severe winds. The northern suburbs, rebuilt in the years following TC Tracy, are much more resilient, largely due to the influence of very high building standards put in place between 1975 and 1980.
Article published in the Australian Journal of Emergency Management
Simple
Identification info
- Date (Publication)
- 2008-01-01T00:00:00
- Date (Revision)
- 2024-10-14T22:42:04
- Citation identifier
- Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/68173
- Cited responsible party
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Author Arthur, W.C.
1 Author Schofield, A.
2 Author Cechet, R.P.
3 Publisher Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience
External Contact
- Name
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The Australian Journal of Emergency Management
- Issue identification
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Volume 23 Issue 4, 2008
- Point of contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Point of contact Kendall, D.
Place and Communities Internal Contact
- Topic category
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- Geoscientific information
Extent
Extent
))
- Maintenance and update frequency
- Unknown
Resource format
- Title
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Product data repository: Various Formats
- Website
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Data Store directory containing the digital product files
Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes
- theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
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EARTH SCIENCES
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- Keywords
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tropical cyclones - TC
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- Keywords
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tropical cyclone risk modelling - TCRM
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- Keywords
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impacts of tropical cyclones
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- Keywords
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wind field
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- Keywords
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Published_External
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Resource constraints
- Title
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
- Alternate title
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CC-BY
- Edition
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4.0
- Access constraints
- Restricted
- Use constraints
- License
Resource constraints
- Title
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
Distribution Information
- Distributor contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Distributor Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice facsimile
- OnLine resource
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Link to Journal
Link to Journal
- Distribution format
-
Resource lineage
- Statement
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Unknown
- Hierarchy level
- Non geographic dataset
- Other
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External Publication
- Description
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Source data not available.
Metadata constraints
- Title
-
Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
- Classification
- Unclassified
Metadata
- Metadata identifier
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urn:uuid/a05f7892-dac3-7506-e044-00144fdd4fa6
- Title
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GeoNetwork UUID
- Language
- English
- Character encoding
- UTF8
- Contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Point of contact Kendall, D.
Place and Communities Internal Contact
Type of resource
- Resource scope
- Document
- Name
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Journal Article
Alternative metadata reference
- Title
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Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with
uuid
- Citation identifier
- eCatId/68173
- Date info (Revision)
- 2018-04-11T04:54:53
- Date info (Creation)
- 2008-09-15T00:00:00
Metadata standard
- Title
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AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
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ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
- Title
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ISO 19115-3
- Title
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Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014
- Edition
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Version 2.0, September 2018
- Citation identifier
- https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551