Completion report for AusAID on Activity Schedule No. 20 of ROU No. 51172: ASEAN PSLP - Capacity building in risk modelling for natural hazards in the Asia-Pacific region. Contains the explanation of the activity, the planned outcomes and the final outcomes of the activity.

The Activity 'Further Development and Implementation of Volcanic Ash Modelling in Indonesia' represents the third phase of work undertaken between Geoscience Australia, the Australia Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction (AIFDR) and the Government of Indonesia (GoI) agency responsible for assessing, analysing and monitoring volcanic hazards in Indonesia, Badan Geologi (BG) in relation to the development and implementation of a volcanic ash modelling capability in Indonesia. The first phase, beginning in April 2009, focused on testing and assessing existing volcanic ash dispersal models and identifying the most suitable model for adaptation and use in Indonesia. This initial phase succeeded in evaluating a range of existing volcanic ash dispersal models, developing a set of criteria needed for volcanic ash hazard modelling in Indonesia, identifying a model which satisfied the majority of these criteria (FALL3D) and obtaining recommendations from BG users on how FALL3D could be adapted and simplified for use in Indonesia. Phase 1 concluded in June 2010. Phase 2 began in July 2010 and consisted of two sub-phases (a and b). Phase 2a involved validating the chosen volcanic ash dispersal model against historical eruptions in Indonesia in order to assess the accuracy and degree of uncertainty in the simulations. This sub-phase also involved adapting the model for use in Indonesia for users with little or no background in computational modelling and limited computing resources. In consultation with BG, GA and AIFDR developed a scripted user interface using the scientific programming language python which modifies the modelling procedure of FALL3D to simplify its use without compromising the core functionality of the model. This scripted interface was named python-FALL3D (PF3D). Phase 2b involved implementing the newly adapted volcanic ash dispersal model as part of a case study on four volcanoes located in West Java, Indonesia. PF3D and field data were used to produce two probabilistic volcanic ash hazard maps for each volcano. One map considered monsoon wind conditions (September - March) and the second considered trade wind conditions (April - October). Phase 2 concluded in June 2011. Phase 3 (the current Activity) began in May 2012 following a request from BG to undertake a third phase of work focused primarily on building capability to undertake near-real time volcanic ash forecasting using the existing model. This phase aimed to fully embed the volcanic ash modelling capability in BG through continued training and technical support in the use and application of the software, enhancement of its functionality and development and implementation of a procedure for near-real time forecasting of volcanic ash dispersal during an eruption. A methodology for implementing near-real time forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal prior to and during an eruption was developed during this Activity. Two volcanoes in North Sulawesi were chosen as a case study for implementing the forecast methodology. Near-real time volcanic ash forecasting maps for Lokon and Soputan volcanoes were produced by BG staff. BG staff will use these and other map products generated using this methodology to provide accurate and evolving forecasts of volcanic ash distribution which could be used to inform internal decision making processes prior to and during a volcanic crisis. Phase 3 also utilised volcanic ash hazard maps and information generated during the previous phase (West Java) in order to develop a mechanism for delivering volcanic ash hazard information in a format which can be readily integrated into district level impact assessments for communities. This was achieved by developing volcanic ash hazard layers for Guntur Volcano for the Indonesia Scenario Assessment for Emergencies tool (InaSAFE). Phase 3 concluded on June 30 2013.

This GA Professional Opinion report is one of a series of 4 reports being undertaken by the GA Groundwater Group under the National Collaboration Framework Project Agreement with the Office of Water Science (in DSEWPaC). The Laura Basin in north Queensland is a priority coal-bearing sedimentary basin that is not currently slated for Bioregional Assessment.

This GA Professional Opinion report is one of a series of 4 reports being undertaken by the GA Groundwater Group under the National Collaboration Framework Project Agreement with the Office of Water Science (in DSEWPaC). The St Vincent Basin in South Australia is a priority coal-bearing sedimentary basin that is not currently slated for Bioregional Assessment.

This GA Professional Opinion report is one of a series of 4 reports being undertaken by the GA Groundwater Group under the National Collaboration Framework Project Agreement with the Office of Water Science (in DSEWPaC). TheOtway Basin in Victoria and South Australia is a priority coal-bearing sedimentary basin that is not currently slated for Bioregional Assessment.

This report presents three tsunami inundation maps from three potential earthquakes that could threaten the Australia Antarctic Division's station on Macquarie Island. The tsunamis from a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on South America Subduction Zone and from a magnitude 9.0 earthquake Puysegur Subduction Zone caused minimal or strictly coastal inundation to the island. However, the tsunami from a magnitude 8.5 earthquake along the Macquarie Ridge plate margin itself caused substantial inundation across isthmus where the station is located. If this event was to occur, considerable damage to the base could be expected. Given that the Macquarie Ridge plate margin is very seismically active and has a history of large earthquakes, the threat to the station from an event like this is credible. Geoscience Australia recommends that AAD considers taking appropriate tsunami mitigation measures for the base to help reduce the potential impact from this event should it occur.

Professional opinion for Vic Fire Services commission study on warnings (Not for general release)

Australia has been involved in DRR activities in PNG for over three decades through the Rabaul Vulcanological Observatory (RVO) Twinning Program, which until September 2015 was funded by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). As part of the program for 2014 2015 a review of options for increasing the use of remote sensing was commissioned. So far the uptake in PNG of remote sensing for DRR purposes has been limited to several selected activities, including the RVO Twinning Program Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) monitoring, and ad hoc use of other data sources. This study focuses on what is required to lower the barriers to entry and further facilitate the uptake of remote sensing for DRR activities in PNG.

This report summarises new petrological, geochemical and geochronological data on the Mount Webb Granite and the felsic volcanics of the Pollock Hills Formation of the western Amnta Block. The new data confirms that this magmatic system has many similarities to other granites in other Australian Proterozoic regions where hydrothermal Au-Cu deposits have been linked to a magmatic source (Pine Creek, Eastern Mount Isa Inlier, Tanami, etc.). The key significant data are the primary chemistry of the units, the alteration present in descriptions and evidence of hydrothermal interaction with the local country rocks.

A Nd-Sm isochron from apatite in apatite-chalcopyrite veins mostly in the footwall to the Nifty deposit indicates an age of 791 ± 43 Ma. As this apatite is paragenetically associated with chalcopyrite in the veins and in the ore zone, this age is interpreted as the best estimate for the timing of mineralisation at the Nifty deposit. Consideration of the temporal evolution of Nd values precludes deposition of the apatite significantly younger than 800 Ma. The U-Pb systematics of the apatite have been disturbed, resulting mostly in highly scattered arrays that do not have geologic significance. Observations on primary fluid inclusions in quartz from the apatite veins suggest low temperature, relatively high salinity brines. These observations, the geochronological constraints and large ranges in sulphur isotope values suggest that the Nifty deposit formed early, possibly diagenetically, from low temperature, relatively oxidised fluids. This inference is consistent with the original model for the Nifty deposit (Haynes et al., 1993) though less consistent with the tectonic model proposed by Anderson et al. (2001). Structural modelling assuming that mineralisation is early shows that the north trend of ore shoots reported previously on the northeastern limb of the Nifty Anticline is consistent with control by antithetic normal faults developed during basin formation. If this model is correct, these antithetic normal faults would trend west-southwest on the southwestern limb of the Nifty Anticline. This trend has not been adequately drill-tested, and provides scope for additional near-mine exploration on the southwestern limb of the Nifty Anticline.