Authors / CoAuthors
Bear-Crozier, A.N.
Abstract
The Activity 'Further Development and Implementation of Volcanic Ash Modelling in Indonesia' represents the third phase of work undertaken between Geoscience Australia, the Australia Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction (AIFDR) and the Government of Indonesia (GoI) agency responsible for assessing, analysing and monitoring volcanic hazards in Indonesia, Badan Geologi (BG) in relation to the development and implementation of a volcanic ash modelling capability in Indonesia. The first phase, beginning in April 2009, focused on testing and assessing existing volcanic ash dispersal models and identifying the most suitable model for adaptation and use in Indonesia. This initial phase succeeded in evaluating a range of existing volcanic ash dispersal models, developing a set of criteria needed for volcanic ash hazard modelling in Indonesia, identifying a model which satisfied the majority of these criteria (FALL3D) and obtaining recommendations from BG users on how FALL3D could be adapted and simplified for use in Indonesia. Phase 1 concluded in June 2010. Phase 2 began in July 2010 and consisted of two sub-phases (a and b). Phase 2a involved validating the chosen volcanic ash dispersal model against historical eruptions in Indonesia in order to assess the accuracy and degree of uncertainty in the simulations. This sub-phase also involved adapting the model for use in Indonesia for users with little or no background in computational modelling and limited computing resources. In consultation with BG, GA and AIFDR developed a scripted user interface using the scientific programming language python which modifies the modelling procedure of FALL3D to simplify its use without compromising the core functionality of the model. This scripted interface was named python-FALL3D (PF3D). Phase 2b involved implementing the newly adapted volcanic ash dispersal model as part of a case study on four volcanoes located in West Java, Indonesia. PF3D and field data were used to produce two probabilistic volcanic ash hazard maps for each volcano. One map considered monsoon wind conditions (September - March) and the second considered trade wind conditions (April - October). Phase 2 concluded in June 2011. Phase 3 (the current Activity) began in May 2012 following a request from BG to undertake a third phase of work focused primarily on building capability to undertake near-real time volcanic ash forecasting using the existing model. This phase aimed to fully embed the volcanic ash modelling capability in BG through continued training and technical support in the use and application of the software, enhancement of its functionality and development and implementation of a procedure for near-real time forecasting of volcanic ash dispersal during an eruption. A methodology for implementing near-real time forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal prior to and during an eruption was developed during this Activity. Two volcanoes in North Sulawesi were chosen as a case study for implementing the forecast methodology. Near-real time volcanic ash forecasting maps for Lokon and Soputan volcanoes were produced by BG staff. BG staff will use these and other map products generated using this methodology to provide accurate and evolving forecasts of volcanic ash distribution which could be used to inform internal decision making processes prior to and during a volcanic crisis. Phase 3 also utilised volcanic ash hazard maps and information generated during the previous phase (West Java) in order to develop a mechanism for delivering volcanic ash hazard information in a format which can be readily integrated into district level impact assessments for communities. This was achieved by developing volcanic ash hazard layers for Guntur Volcano for the Indonesia Scenario Assessment for Emergencies tool (InaSAFE). Phase 3 concluded on June 30 2013.
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76277
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- GA PublicationProfessional Opinion
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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Professional Opinion 2013/02
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Development by Geoscience Australia for the Australia Agency for International Development
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