risk analysis
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Disaster management is most effective when it is based on evidence. Evidence-based disaster management means that decision makers are better informed, and the decision making process delivers more rational, credible and objective disaster management outcomes. To achieve this, fundamental data needs to be translated into information and knowledge, before it can be put to use by the decision makers as policy, planning and implementation. Disaster can come in all forms: rapid and destructive like earthquakes and tsunamis, or gradual and destructive like drought and climate change. Tactical and strategic responses need to be based on the appropriate information to minimise impacts on the community and promote subsequent recovery. This implies a comprehensive supply of information, in order to establish the direct and indirect losses, and to establish short and long term social and economic resilience. The development of the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) is a significant national project being undertaken by Geoscience Australia (GA). NEXIS collects, collates, manages and provides the information required to assess multi-hazard impacts. Exposure information may be defined as a suite of information relevant to all those involved in a natural disaster, including the victims, the emergency services, and the policy and planning instrumentalities.
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Evidence based disaster management enables decision makers to manage more effectively because it yields a better informed understanding of the situation. When based on evidence, the decision making process delivers more rational, credible and objective disaster management decisions, rather than those influenced by panic. The translation of fundamental data into information and knowledge is critical for decision makers to act and implement the decisions. The evidence from appropriate information helps both tactical and strategic responses to minimise impacts on community and promote recovery. The information requirements of such a system are quite comprehensive in order to estimate the direct and indirect losses; the short and long term social and economic resilience. Disasters may be of rapid onset in nature like earthquakes, tsunamis and blast. Others are slow onset such those associated with gradual climate change. Climate change has become a real challenge for all nations and the early adaptors will reduce risk from threats such as increased strength of tropical cyclones, storm surge inundations, floods and the spread of disease vectors. The Australian Government has recognised the threats and prioritised adaptation as an opportunity to enhance the nation's existing infrastructure and thereby reduce risk. A thorough understanding of the exposure under current and future climate projections is fundamental to this process of future capacity building. The nation's exposure to these increased natural hazards includes all sectors from communities to businesses, services, lifeline utilities and infrastructure. The development of a National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) is a significant national capacity building task being undertaken by Geoscience Australia (GA). NEXIS is collecting, collating, managing and providing the exposure information required to assess multi-hazard impacts.
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Hydrometeorological events make up or contribute to a majority of disasters in Australia and around the world. Scientists expect climate change will accelerate the frequency and intensity of these events in the future. Information on the location and characteristics of the built and social environment combined with hazard modelling and spatial analysis can facilitate the identification of buildings, people and infrastructure exposed to a particular natural hazard event. This information informs evidence based decision making and future planning to aid in the preparedness, response and recovery to severe hazard events. In Australia, the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) is a significant national project being undertaken by Geoscience Australia (GA). In 2006 GA embarked on the development of NEXIS in response to the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) reform commitment on Australian's ability to manage natural disasters and other emergencies. The COAG commitment called for the establishment of a 'nationally consistent system of data collection, research and analysis to ensure a sound knowledge base on natural disasters and disaster mitigation' (DOTARS 2002). NEXIS database contains information on buildings, people, businesses and infrastructure and is derived from publicly available demographic, structural, economic and statistical data. Exposure profiles contain information on: building type, size, construction materials, age, replacement costs and population demographics for all residential, commercial and industrial buildings in Australia. Aggregated exposure information underpins risk assessment, emergency management, climate change adaptation, urban planning, insurance industry and research to help assist evidence based decision making. NEXIS development and operationalisation is crucial to support the decision makers and underpins community safety, emergency management and disaster risk reduction initiatives Australia This paper will discuss the development of NEXIS and its application in several national projects with the Department of Climate Change Energy and Efficiency (DCCEE) in Australia and recent national disaster impacts assessments on: Queensland tropical cyclone Yasi, Victoria bushfires and the Queensland floods.
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In 2008, the Australian Parliament debated and passed the first national legislation to establish a title system of access and property rights for greenhouse gas (CO2) storage in offshore waters - the Offshore Petroleum and Greenhouse Gas Storage Act 2006 (the Act). The Act provides for petroleum titles and greenhouse gas storage titles to coexist. To manage possible interactions between petroleum and CO2 storage operations, the Act introduced a test to determine whether activities under one title would pose a significant risk of a significant adverse impact (SROSAI test) on pre-existing rights and assets under the other title. Where petroleum and CO2 storage projects are proposed in the same area, the Act provides for commercial agreements between petroleum and CO2 storage proponents. It is only in the absence of any such commercial agreements that the regulator will have to decide whether an activity under one title would pose a significant risk of a significant adverse impact on the operations within the other title area. The SROSAI test is based on three core parameters: - the probability of the occurrence of an adverse impact; - the cost of the adverse impact on the project; and - the total resource value of the project. In estimating the cost of an adverse impact the regulator will take into consideration whether the adverse impact will result in: - any increase in capital or operating costs; - any reduction in rate of recovery of petroleum or rate of injection of CO2; - any reduction in the quantity of the petroleum to be recovered or CO2 stored. Safety and environmental impacts would be considered in estimating costs, only if those impacts would contribute to an increase in capital or operating costs, or reduction in petroleum recovery or CO2 injection. Etc
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This paper discusses two of the key inputs used to produce the draft National Earthquake Hazard Map for Australia: 1) the earthquake catalogue and 2) the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The composite catalogue used draws upon information from three key catalogues for Australian and regional earthquakes; a catalogue of Australian earthquakes provided by Gary Gibson, Geoscience Australia's QUAKES, and the International Seismological Centre. A complex logic is then applied to select preferred location and magnitude of earthquakes depending on spatial and temporal criteria. Because disparate local magnitude equations were used throughout Australia, we performed first order magnitude corrections to standardise magnitude estimates to be consistent with the attenuation factors defined by contemporary local magnitude ML formulae. While most earthquake magnitudes do not change significantly, our methodology can result in reductions of up to one magnitude unit in certain cases. Subsequent ML-MW (moment magnitude) corrections were applied. The catalogue was declustered using a magnitude dependent spatio-temporal filter. Previously identified blasts were removed and a time-of-day filter was developed to further deblast the catalogue. Secondly, a suite of candidate GMPEs were systematically tested against 5% damped response spectra recorded from Australian earthquakes in eastern and Western Australia, respectively. Since many GMPEs are developed for earthquakes larger than approximately MW 5.0, much of the data recorded in Australia is below the magnitude threshold prescribed by these equations. Nevertheless, where necessary, we extrapolate these equations to lower magnitudes to test the general applicability of the GMPEs for different source zones across Australia. The relative weights of the GMPEs for the draft national hazard model were initially determined objectively by the authors using these analyses as a basis. Final GMPE weights will be assigned through consultation with key stakeholders through the AEES.
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An increase in the frequency and intensity of storms, coastal flooding, and spread of disease as a result of projected climate change and sea-level rise is likely to damage built environments and adversely affect a significant proportion of Australia's population. Understanding the assets at risk from climate change hazards is critical to the formulation of adaptation responses and early action is likely to be the most cost effective approach to managing the risk. Understanding the level of exposure of assets, such as buildings, lifeline utilities and infrastructure, under current and future climate projections is fundamental to this process. The National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) is a significant national capacity building task being undertaken by Geoscience Australia (GA). NEXIS is collecting, collating, managing and providing the exposure information required to assess climate change impacts. It provides residential, business and infrastructure exposure information derived from several fundamental datasets. NEXIS is also expanding to include institutions (such educational, health, emergency, government and community buildings) and lifeline support infrastructure exposure. It provides spatial exposure data in GIS format at a building level and is often provided to clients for an area of interest. It is also designed to predict future exposure for climate change impact analysis. NEXIS is currently sourcing more specific datasets from various data custodians including state and local governments along with private data providers. NEXIS has been utilised in various climate change impact projects undertaken by CSIRO, the Department of Climate Change (DCC), the Department of Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts (DEWHA), and several universities. Examples of these projects will be outlined during the presentation.
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The National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) is a capability developed by Geoscience Australia, an agency within the portfolio of the federal Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism. NEXIS is a nationally consistent database of building assets, essential infrastructure, economic activity and demographic information. All these community elements are at risk to natural hazards and will be exposed to the unavoidable, long term influences of climate change. The system collects and collates a broad range of information for research and policy development in Australia, including that associated with climate change adaptation. The development of NEXIS has been undertaken in parallel to ongoing national assessments of climate change risk for hazards such as storm surge, severe wind, bushfire and extreme temperature NEXIS employs a largely statistical approach to developing a national definition of exposure using a number of existing databases maintained by others. These include the Geocoded National Address File (GNAF), the Property Cadastre, the Business Registry, and census datasets from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Costing modules developed by quantity surveyors have also been incorporated to provide estimates of building replacement costs across Australia. State Government departments have supplied data on local building information in Tasmania and South Australia. The Census of Land Use and Employment (CLUE) has also been made available by local government for comprehensive information about land use, employment and economic activity across the entire Greater Melbourne area.
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The report presents a framework for assessng in quantitative terms the cost of the weather related hazards of severe wind, flood inundation, storm surge, bushfire and hail. It has been developed with reference to the risk assessment approaches used by the insurance and catastrophic loss modelling industry. For each hazard the specific data inputs to each component of the impacts framework are summarised as a list of implementation needs. Finally, the report identifies areas where impact models are immature or not readily available in the public domain.
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Exposure refers to the elements at risk which may be subjected to the impact of severe hazards within a defined geographic area or region. These elements include the built environment, i.e buildings, infrastructure services and utilities, and also population and business activity. Geoscience Australia (GA) is developing the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) as a national capability to provide an exposure profile to underpin analysis of natural hazards; potential disaster footprints, risk assessments and climate change adaptation research. The NEXIS capability enables modelling to gain a greater understanding of the impact and risk exposure to these events. The information is used to inform evidence based decision making and future planning to aid in the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery to severe hazard events and climate change adaptation. The current NEXIS database provides exposure profile on building type, building construction materials (roof and wall), number of floors, floor area, year built and population demographics, business activity (turnover) and employee numbers. NEXIS is a demonstrated capability used in response to Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Victoria Bushfires, Queensland Floods and other recent national disaster events. The database also provides input data for use with the Earthquake Risk Model (EQRM) and Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) to estimate direct and indirect losses to the built environment and possible population casualities. Further development of the database is planned to incorporate infrastructure and facilities data to enhance the capability and availability of nationally consistent data and exposure information.
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The impacts of climate change, including sea level rise and the increased frequency of storm surge events, will adversely affect infrastructure in a significant number of Australian coastal communities. In order to quantify this risk and develop suitable adaptation strategies, the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) commissioned the National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (NCVA). With contributions from Geoscience Australia (GA) and the University of Tasmania, this first-pass national assessment has identified the extent and value of infrastructure that is potentially vulnerable to impacts of climate change. In addition, the NCVA examined the changes in exposure under a range of future population scenarios. The NCVA was underpinned by a number of fundamental national scale datasets; a mid-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) used to model a series of sea level rise projections incorporating 1 in 100 year storm-tide estimates where available; the 'Smartline' (nationa; coastal geomorphology dataset) identified coastal landforms that are potentially unstable and may recede with the influence of rising sea level. The inundation outputs were then overlain with GA's National Exposure Information System to quantify the number and value of infrastructure elements (including residential and commercial buildings, roads and rail) potentially vulnerable to a range of sea-level rise and recession estimates for the year 2100.