These data have been generated by a high resolution climate Model using 6 drivers as specified in the file name. The model simulations cover the period 1960-2100. The data contains a large number of variables, for wind hazard studies the wind-related variables should be extracted. Author: CSIRO's CCAM high resolution model team Geographic extend: The simulations focus on Australia's climate Conditions using a cubic-conformal grid, the coarse part is used In places other than Australia (World).

Climate change is a challenge facing nations worldwide. The Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (2007) indicated that climate change is inevitable and that nations need to quickly adapt to mitigate its effects on the risks associated with increased tropical cyclone intensity, storm surge inundation, floods and exacerbated spread of disease. Nationally consistent exposure information is required to understand the risks associated with climate change and thereby support decision making on adaptation options. Decision makers can draw on this evidence-base to develop more rational, representative and objective strategies for addressing emerging challenges. Exposure information requires the translation of fundamental data into information and knowledge before it can be put to use for policy, planning and implementation. Communities, businesses, essential services and infrastructure are all exposed to these increased natural hazards. A thorough understanding of exposed infrastructure, building stock and population under current and future climate projections is fundamental to the process of future capacity building. The National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) provides a broad range of information on the exposure profile of any given area at various administrative and disaster sensitive geographic resolutions with Australia-wide coverage. The information is collected, collated and maintained at building level that can subsequently be aggregated geographically. The information recorded in NEXIS covers a wide range of building attributes such as building type, construction type and year built together with information on population demographics and metrics on business activity such as business type, turnover, employee numbers and customer capacity.

The short historical record of tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region is insufficient for estimating return period wind speeds at long return periods (greater than 100 years). Utilising the auto-correlated nature of tropical cyclone behaviour (forward speed and direction, intensity and size), Geoscience Australia has developed a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclone behaviour to generate synthetic event sets that are statistically similar to the historical record. The track model is auto-regressive, with lag-1 auto-regression used for forward speed and bearing, and lag-2 auto-regression applied to the intensity and size characteristics. Applying a parametric wind field and a linear boundary layer model to the synthetic tropical cyclone tracks allows users to generate synthetic wind swaths, and in turn fit extreme value distributions to evaluate return period wind speeds spatially. The model has been applied to evaluate severe wind hazard across Australia and neighbouring regions. In conjunction with statistical models of synoptic (mid-latitude storms) and thunderstorm wind hazard, we have been able to generate a national assessment of severe wind hazard, which is comparable to existing wind loading design standards. Using tropical cyclone-like vortex tracks directly detected from regional climate models, it is also possible to project cyclonic wind hazard into future climate conditions, accounting for both changes in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones.

This report, 'Pacific Climate Change Science Program: Evaluation of severe wind hazard from tropical cyclones', will be delivered to CSIRO to form a subsection of the 'Climate Change in the Pacific' report. The latter will be launched in November 2011 and will constitute one of the main deliverables for the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP). The PCCSP is part of the Australian Government's commitment through the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI) to meet high priority climate change adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region. This report provides an evaluation of cyclonic wind hazard for the fifteen PCCSP partner countries located in the western Pacific with the one exception of East Timor. The wind hazard is estimated for both the current climate and for the future climate under an A2 emissions scenario. The current climate wind hazard is estimated by applying GA's Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) to the historical track record. TCRM is a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclone behaviour, enabling users to generate synthetic records of tropical cyclones representing many thousands of years of activity. TCRM is then applied to tracks of tropical cyclone-like vortices (TCLVs) detected in downscaled global climate models to determine how the cyclonic wind hazard may change in the future. The results indicated that the wind loading design standard in this region may significantly underestimate the wind hazard for the current climate. For the future climate projections, the analysis suggests that the wind hazard may decrease for countries close to the equator and near the Australian coastline but could increase for countries greater than 20 degrees poleward from the equator.

The National Wind Risk Assessment (NWRA), a collaboration between Geoscience Australia and the Dept. Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, has developed a computational framework to evaluate both the wind hazard and risk due to severe wind gusts (based on modelling techniques and application of the National Exposure Information System; NEXIS). A combination of tropical cyclone, synoptic and thunderstorm wind hazard estimates is used to provide a revised estimate of the severe wind hazard across Australia. The hazard modelling utilises both 'current-climate' information and also simulations forced by IPCC SRES climate change scenarios, employed to determine how the wind hazard will be influenced by climate change. The results from the current climate regional wind hazard assessment are compared with the hazard based on the existing understanding as specified in the Australian/New Zealand Wind Loading Standard (AS/NZS 1170.2, 2011). Regions were mapped where the design wind speed depicted in AS/NZS 1170.2 is significantly lower than the hazard analysis provided by this study. Regions requiring more immediate attention regarding the development of adaptation options are discussed in the context of the minimum design standards in the building code regulations. A national assessment of localised wind speed modifiers including topography, terrain and the built environment (shielding), has also been undertaken to inform the local wind speed hazard that causes damage to structures. The effects of the wind speed modifiers are incorporated through a statistical modification of the regional wind speed. We report on an assessment of severe impact and wind risk to residential houses across the Australian continent (quantified in terms of annualised loss). Considering future climate scenarios of regional severe wind hazard, we consider the changing nature of severe wind risk focusing on the Southeast Queensland and Tasmanian regions, and illustrate where the wind loading stan...

The aim of this project is to equip ANUGA with a storm surge capability in partnership with the Department of Planning Western Australia (DoP), take steps to validate the methodology and provide a case study to DoP in the form of a storm surge scenario for Bunbury. The developed capability will provide a mechanism whereby DoP can investigate mitigation options for a range of hydrodynamic hazards.

The grid shows the Koeppenclassification indices across Australia in the form of two-dimensional array data. The classification is based on standard 30-year period (1961-1990) rainfall and temperature grids. See Lineage for more information.

The Garnaut Climate Change Review is an independent study by Professor Ross Garnaut, commissioned by Australia's State and Territory Governments. The Review is examining the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy, in an effort to recommend medium to long-term policies and policy frameworks to improve the prospects for sustainable prosperity. Geoscience Australia's (GA) outputs for the Garnaut Review consider the economic impacts of tropical cyclones on Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia (severe wind and storm surge impacts) for eight climate change greenhouse gas emission scenarios based on model projections of large-scale environmental factors from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report simulations. The study focuses on the evaluation of the wind hazard utilising the maximum potential intensity (MPI). This sets a thermodynamic, theoretical upper limit for the distribution of TC intensities obtained by a TC given a vertical temperature and humidity profile and given location. Storm surge impacts in the same States are developed using a simple parameterisation relating changes in TC intensity to changes in storm surge height including the adoption of the IPCC global mid-point sea-level rise predictions. For this study we consider 20 year time slices centred on; 2010, 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. For each time-slice and for each region, we produce the spatial return-period 'tropical cyclone wind gust speed' ranging from return-periods of 50 years to 5000 years. Direct losses (infrastructure damage) are calculated for each return-period event. The combined losses (severe wind and storm surge) were regressed to obtain a Probable Maximum Loss (PML) curve for each study region. The average annual cost to the region due to exposure to tropical cyclones across a 5000 year period or Annualised losses are evaluated for each study region. Expressing the annualised loss as a percentage of total reconstruction gives a measure of the intensity of the risk to the studied community that is not so evident in simple dollar values. State annualised loss estimates of direct loss were aggregated from estimates at the SLA (statistical local area) level. The aim of the Garnaut Review is to compare the 'business as usual' scenario (A1FI) with a range of stabilisation scenarios.

There is growing recognition of a relationship between geomagnetism and climate. This study uses continuous wavelet transforms to decompose geomagnetic, climatic and solar time series into their time-frequency components allowing both periodic and aperiodic correlations to be shown. Using 56 years of geomagnetic and climate data recorded in Canberra, Australia, correlations on time scales of 1 to 15 years are investigated. Wavelet analysis of temperature and geomagnetic data show correlations at 1-year and 2-5 year periods. There also appears to be weak correlation between rainfall and geomagnetism at a period of 11 years. This study is limited in temporal and spatial extent but demonstrates potential for further research in this field using wavelet transforms.

A review commissioned by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) in June 2001 entitled 'Natural Disasters in Australia: reforming mitigation, relief and recovery arrangements' concluded that a new approach to natural disasters in Australia was needed. While disaster response and reaction plans remain important, there is now a greater focus towards anticipation of mitigation against natural hazards, involving a fundamental shift in focus beyond relief and recovery towards cost-effective, evidence-based disaster mitigation. This new approach now includes an assessment of the changes in frequency and intensity of natural hazard events that are influenced by climate change, and aims to achieve safer, more sustainable Australian communities in addition to a reduction in risk, damage and losses from future natural disasters. Geoscience Australia (GA) is developing risk models and innovative approaches to assess the potential losses to Australian communities from a range of sudden impact natural hazards. GA aims to define the economic and social threat posed by a range of rapid onset hazards through a combined study of natural hazard research methods and risk assessment models. These hazards include earthquakes, cyclones, floods, landslides, severe winds and storm surge/tsunami. This presentation provides an overview of the risk that peak wind gusts pose to a number of Australian communities (major capital cities), and for some cities examines how climate change may affect the risk (utilising modelling underpinned by a small subset of the IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios).