Questions often asked by the public in regard to the concept of CO2 storage include; "But won?t it leak?", and "How long will it stay down there?". The natural environment of petroleum systems documents many of the processes which will influence CO2 storage outcomes, and the likely long (geological) timeframes that will operate. Thousand of billions of barrels of hydrocarbons have been trapped and stored in geological formations in sedimentary basins for 10s to 100s of millions of years, as has substantial volumes of CO2 that has been generated through natural processes. Examples from Australia and major hydrocarbon provinces of the world are documented, including those basins with major accumulations that are currently trapped in their primary reservoir, those that have accumulated hydrocarbons in the primary reservoir and then through tectonic activity spilled them to other secondary traps or released the hydrocarbons to the atmosphere, and those that generated hydrocarbons but for which no effective traps were in place for hydrocarbons to accumulate. Some theoretical modelling of the likelihood of meeting stabilisation targets using geological storage are based on leakage rates which are implausibly high when compared to observations from viable storage locations in the natural environment, and do not necessarily account for the likelihood of delay times for leakage to the atmosphere or the timeframe in which geological events will occur. Without appropriate caveats, they potentially place at risk the public perception of how efficient and effective appropriately selected geological reservoirs could be for storage of CO2. If the same rigorous methods, technology and skills that are used to explore for, find and produce hydrocarbon accumulations are now used for finding safe and secure storage sites for CO2, the traps so identified can be expected to contain the CO2 after injection for similar periods of time as that in which hydrocarbons and CO2 have been stored in the natural environment.

Identification of major hydrocarbon provinces from existing world assessments for hydrocarbon potential can be used to identify those sedimentary basins at a global level that will be highly prospective for CO2 storage. Most sedimentary basins which are minor petroleum provinces and many non-petroliferous sedimentary basins will also be prospective for CO2 storage. Accurate storage potential estimates will require that each basin be assessed individually, but many of the prospective basins may have ranges from high to low prospectivity. The degree to which geological storage of CO2 will be implemented in the future will depend on the geographical and technical relationships between emission sites and storage locations, and the economic drivers that affect the implementation for each source to sink match. CO2 storage potential is a naturally occurring resource, and like any other natural resource there will be a need to provide regional access to the better sites if the full potential of the technology is to be realized. Whilst some regions of the world have a paucity of opportunities in their immediate geographic confines, others are well endowed. Some areas whilst having good storage potential in their local region may be challenged by the enormous volume of CO2 emissions that are locally generated. Hubs which centralize the collection and transport of CO2 in a region could encourage the building of longer and larger pipelines to larger and technically more viable storage sites and so reduce costs due to economies of scale.

This paper briefly summaries how intrinsic uncertainties in reservoir characterization, at the proposed Otway Basin Naylor Field carbon-dioxide geo-sequestration site, were risk managed by a process of creation and evaluation of a series of geo-models (term to describe the geo-cellular geological models created by PETREL software) that cover the range of plausible geological possibilities, as well as extreme case scenarios. Optimization methods were employed, to minimize simulation run time, whilst not compromising the essential features of the basic geo-model. For four different Cases, 7 geo-models of the reservoir were created for simulation studies. The reservoir simulation study relies primarily on production history matching and makes use of all available information to help screen and assess the various geo-models. The results suggest that the bulk reservoir permeability is between 0.5 - 1Darcy, the original gas-water-contact was about 2020 mSS and there is a strong aquifer drive.

CO2CRC Project 1 - Site Specific Studies for Geological Storage of carbon Dioxide Part 1: Southeast Queensland CO2 Storage Sites - Basin Desk-top, Geological Interpretation and Reservoir Simulation of Regional Model

A Bayesian inversion technique to determine the location and strength of trace gas emissions from a point source in open air is presented. It was tested using atmospheric measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) released at known rates from a source located within an array of eight evenly spaced sampling points on a 20 m radius circle. The analysis requires knowledge of concentration enhancement downwind of the source and the normalized, three-dimensional distribution (shape) of concentration in the dispersion plume. The influence of varying background concentrations of ~1% for N2O and ~10% for CO2 was removed by subtracting upwind concentrations from those downwind of the source to yield only concentration enhancements. Continuous measurements of turbulent wind and temperature statistics were used to model the dispersion plume. The analysis localized the source to within 0.8 m of the true position and the emission rates were determined to better than 3% accuracy. This technique will be useful in assurance monitoring for geological storage of CO2 and for applications requiring knowledge of the location and rate of fugitive emissions.

This geomechanical analysis of the Browse Basin was undertaken as part of the CO2CRC's Browse Basin Geosequestration Analysis. This study aims to constrain the geomechanical model (in situ stresses), and to evaluate the risk of fault reactivation. The stress regime in the Browse Basin is one of strike-slip faulting i.e. maximum horizontal stress (~ 28.3 MPa/km) > vertical stress (22 MPa/km) > minimum horizontal stress (15.7 MPa/km). Pore pressure is near hydrostatic in all wells except for two, which exhibit elevated pore fluid pressures at depths greater than 3500 m. A maximum horizontal stress orientation of 095' was considered to be most appropriate for the Barcoo sub-basin, which was the area of focus in this study. The risk of fault reactivation was calculated using the FAST (Fault Analysis Seal Technology) technique, which determines fault reactivation risk by estimating the increase in pore pressure required to cause reactivation. Fault reactivation risk was calculated using two fault strength scenarios; cohesionless faults (C = 0; ? = 0.6) and healed faults (C = 5; ? = 0.75). The orientations of faults with high and low reactivation risks is almost identical for healed and cohesionless faults. High angle faults striking N-S are unlikely to reactivate in the current stress regime. High angle faults orientated ENE-WSW and ESE-WNW have the highest fault reactivation risk. Due to the fact that the SH gradient was determined using frictional limits, the most unfavourably oriented cohesionless faults cannot sustain any pore pressure increase without reactivating. By contrast, using a cohesive fault model indicates that those same faults would be able to sustain a pore pressure increase (Delta P) of 9.6 MPa. However, it must be emphasized that the absolute values of Delta P presented in this study are subject to large errors due to uncertainties in the geomechanical model, in particular for the maximum horizontal stress. Therefore, the absolute values of Delta-P presented herein should not be used for planning purposes. Fault reactivation risk was evaluated for 10 faults with known orientations. All faults were interpreted as extending from below the Jurassic target reservoir formation to the surface. The dominant fault in the Barcoo sub-basin is the large fault which extends from Trochus 1 to Sheherazade 1 to Arquebus 1. This deeply penetrating, listric fault initially formed as a normal fault and was subsequently reactivated in thrust mode. Most of the faults in the Barcoo sub-basin trend broadly N-S and are therefore relatively stable with respect to increases in pore pressure. However, there are sections within some individual faults where fault orientation becomes close to optimal. In these sections, small increases in pore pressure (<5 MPa) may be sufficient to cause fault reactivation. If this were to occur, then significant risk of CO2 leakage would exist, as these sections cross-cut the regional seal.

A geomechanical assessment of the Naylor Field, Otway Basin has been undertaken by the Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC) to investigate the possible geomechanical effects of CO2 injection and storage. The study aims to: - further constrain the geomechanical model (in-situ stresses and rock strength data) developed by van Ruth and Rogers (2006), and; - evaluate the risk of fault reactivation and failure of intact rock. The stress regime in the onshore Victorian Otway Basin is: - strike-slip if maximum horizontal stress is calculated using frictional limits, and; - normal if maximum horizontal stress is calculated using the CRC-1 leak-off test. The NW-SE maximum horizontal stress orientation (142ºN) determined from a resistivity image log of the CRC-1 borehole is broadly consistent with previous estimates and verifies a NW-SE maximum horizontal stress orientation in the Otway Basin. The estimated maximum pore pressure increase (Delta-P) which can be sustained within the target reservoir (Waarre Formation Unit C) without brittle deformation (i.e. the formation of a fracture) was estimated to be 10.9 MPa using maximum horizontal stress determined by frictional limits and 14.5 MPa using maximum horizontal stress determined using CRC-1 extended leak-off test data. The maximum pore pressure increase which can be sustained in the seal (Belfast Mudstone) was estimated to be 6.3 MPa using maximum horizontal stress determined by frictional limits and 9.8 MPa using maximum horizontal stress determined using CRC-1 extended leak-off test data. The propensity for fault reactivation was calculated using the FAST (Fault Analysis Seal Technology) technique, which determines fault reactivation propensity by estimating the increase in pore pressure required to cause reactivation (Mildren et al., 2002). Fault reactivation propensity was calculated using two fault strength scenarios; cohesionless faults (C = 0; ? = 0.60) and healed faults (C = 5.4; ?= 0.78). The orientations of faults with high and low reactivation propensity are similar for healed and cohesionless faults. In addition, two methods of determining maximum horizontal stress were used; frictional limits and the CRC-1 extended leak-off test. Fault reactivation analyses differ as a result in terms of which fault orientations have high or low fault reactivation propensity. Fault reactivation propensity was evaluated for three key faults within the Naylor structure with known orientations. The fault segment with highest fault reactivation propensity in the Naylor Field is on the Naylor South Fault near the crest of the Naylor South sub-structure. Therefore, leakage of hydrocarbons from the greater Naylor structure may have occurred through past reactivation of the Naylor South Fault, thus accounting for the pre-production palaeo-column in the Naylor field. The highest reactivation propensity (for optimally-orientated faults) ranges from an estimated pore pressure increase (Delta-P) of 0.0 MPa to 28.6 MPa depending on assumptions made about maximum horizontal stress magnitude and fault strength. Nonetheless, the absolute values of Delta-P presented in this study are subject to large errors due to uncertainties in the geomechanical model. In particular, the maximum horizontal stress and rock strength are poorly constrained.

The middle to lower Jurassic sequence in Australia's Surat Basin has been identified as a potential reservoir system for geological CO2 storage. The sequence comprises three major formations with distinctly different mineral compositions, and generally low salinity formation water (TDS<3000 mg/L). Differing geochemical responses between the formations are expected during geological CO2 storage. However, given the prevailing use of saline reservoirs in CCS projects elsewhere, limited data are available on CO2-water-rock dynamics during CO2 storage in such low-salinity formations. Here, a combined batch experiment and numerical modelling approach is used to characterise reaction pathways and to identify geochemical tracers of CO2 migration in the low-salinity Jurassic sandstone units. Reservoir system mineralogy was characterized for 66 core samples from stratigraphic well GSQ Chinchilla 4, and six representative samples were reacted with synthetic formation water and high-purity CO2 for up to 27 days at a range of pressures. Low formation water salinity, temperature, and mineralization yield high solubility trapping capacity (1.18 mol/L at 45°C, 100 bar), while the paucity of divalent cations in groundwater and the silicate reservoir matrix results in very low mineral trapping capacity under storage conditions. Formation water alkalinity buffers pH at elevated CO2 pressures and exerts control on mineral dissolution rates. Non-radiogenic, regional groundwater-like 87Sr/86Sr values (0.7048-0.7066) indicate carbonate and authigenic clay dissolution as the primary reaction pathways regulating solution composition, with limited dissolution of the clastic matrix during the incubations. Several geochemical tracers are mobilised in concentrations greater than found in regional groundwater, most notably cobalt, concentrations of which are significantly elevated regardless of CO2 pressure or sample mineralogy.

Within the GEODISC program of the Australian Petroleum Cooperative Research Centre (APCRC), Geoscience Australia (GA) and the University of New South Wales (UNSW) completed an analysis of the potential for the geological storage of CO2. The geological analysis produced an assessment from over 100 potential Environmentally Sustainable Sites for CO2 Injection (ESSCI) by applying a deterministic risk assessment. Out of 100 potential sites, 65 proved to be valid sites for further study. This assessment examined predominantly saline reservoirs which is where we believe Australia?s greatest storage potential exists. However, many of these basins also contain coal seams that may be capable of storing CO2. Several of these coal basins occur close to coal-fired power plants and oil and gas fields where high levels of CO2 are emitted. CO2 storage in coal beds is intrinsically different to storage in saline formations, and different approaches need to be applied when assessing them. Whilst potentially having economic benefit, enhanced coal bed methane (ECBM) production through CO2 injection does raise an issue of how much greenhouse gas mitigation might occur. Even if only small percentages of the total methane are liberated to the atmosphere in the process, then a worse outcome could be achieved in terms of greenhouse gas mitigation. The most suitable coal basins in Australia for CO2 storage include the Galilee, Cooper and Bowen-Surat basins in Queensland, and the Sydney, Gunnedah, and Clarence-Moreton Basins in New South Wales. Brief examples of geological storage within saline aquifers and coal seams in the Bowen and Surat basins, Queensland Australia, are described in this paper to compare and contrast each storage option.

In March and April, 2012, Geoscience Australia undertook a seabed characterisation survey, aimed at supporting the assessment of CO2 storage potential of the Vlaming Sub-basin, Western Australia. The survey, undertaken as part of the National CO2 Infrastructure Plan program was targeted to provide an understanding of the link between the deep geological features of the area and the seabed, and connectivity between them as possible evidence for seal integrity. Data was acquired in two sections of the Rottnest Shelf lying above the regional seal - the South Perth Shale - and the underlying potentially CO2-suitable reservoir, the Gage Sandstone. Seabed samples were taken from 43 stations, and included 89 seabed grab samples. A total of 653 km2 of multibeam and backscatter data was obtained. Chirper shallow sub-bottom profile data was acquired concurrently. 6.65 km2 of side-scan sonar imagery was also obtained. The two surveyed areas, (Area 1 and Area 2), are set within a shallow sediment starved shelf setting. Area 2, situated to the southwest of Rottnest Island, is characterised by coralline red algal (rhodolith) beds, with ridges and mounds having significant rhodolith accumulations. The geomorphic expression of structural discontinuities outcropping at the seabed is evident by the presence of linear fault-like structures notable in Area 1, and north-south trending lineaments in Area 2. North-south trending structural lineaments on the outer section of Area 2 have in places, mounds standing 4-5 m above the seafloor in water depths of 80-85 m. Although there are apparent spatial correlations between seabed geomorphology and the structural geology of the basin, the precise relationship between ridges and mounds that are overlain by rhodolith accumulations, fluid seepage, and Vlaming Sub-basin geology is uncertain, and requires further work to elucidate any links.