Through Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Geoscience Australia has been working closely with the Government of Papua New Guinea technical agencies (Rabaul Volcano Observatory, Port Moresby Geophysical Observatory, and Engineering Geology Branch) since September 2010 to enhance their capabilities to monitor and assess natural hazards. The objective of this program is to support the Government of Papua New Guinea in developing fundamental information and practices for the effective response and management of natural hazard events in PNG. Earthquakes as natural hazards are one of the key focus points of this project, as they continue to cause loss of life and widespread damage to buildings and infrastructure in Papua New Guinea. The country’s vulnerability to earthquakes is evident from the significant socio-economic consequences of recent major events in Papua New Guinea, e.g., a magnitude 7.5 earthquake that occurred in the Hela Province of Papua New Guinea in 2018. Earthquake risk is likely to increase significantly in the years to come due to the growth in population and urbanization in Papua New Guinea. However, earthquake risk, unlike hazard, can be managed and minimized. One obvious example would be minimizing earthquake risk by constructing earthquake-resistant structures following building standards. The high level of earthquake hazard of Papua New Guinea has been long recognised and the suite of building standards released in 1982 contained provisions to impart adequate resilience to buildings based on the best understanding of seismic hazard available at that time. However, the building standards and incorporated seismic hazard assessment for Papua New Guinea has not been updated since the 1980s. The integration of modern national seismic hazard models into national building codes and practices provides the most effective way that we can reduce human casualties and economic losses from future earthquakes. This report aims at partially fulfilling this task by performing a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment to underpin a revision of the earthquake loading component of the building standards of Papua New Guinea. The updated assessment offers many important advances over its predecessor. It is based on a modern probabilistic hazard framework and considers an earthquake catalogue augmented with an additional four decades-worth of data. The revised assessment considers advances in ground-motion modelling through the use of multiple ground-motion models. Also, for the first time, the individual fault sources representing active major and microplate boundaries are implemented in the input hazard model. Furthermore, the intraslab sources are represented realistically by using the continuous slab volume to constrain the finite ruptures of such events. This would better constrain the expected levels of ground motion at any given site in Papua New Guinea. The results suggest a high level of hazard in the coastal areas of the Huon Peninsula and the New Britain–Bougainville region, and a relatively low level of hazard in the southern part of the New Guinea Highlands Block. In comparison with the seismic zonation map in the current design standard, it can be noted that the spatial distribution used for building design does not match the bedrock hazard distribution of this study. In particular, the high seismic hazard of the Huon Peninsula in the revised assessment is not captured in the current seismic zoning map, leading to a significant under-estimation of hazard in PNG’s second-largest city, Lae. It can also be shown that in many other regions and community localities in PNG the hazard is higher than that regulated for the design of buildings having a range of natural periods. Thus, the need for an updated hazard map for building design has been confirmed from the results of this study, and a revised map is developed for consideration in a revised building standard of Papua New Guinea.

Data used to generate the National Seismic Hazard Assessments (NSHA). Data includes: original and modified earthquake catalogues, earthquake rate models, probabilistic seismic hazard outputs. The most recent assessment was completed in 2018 and can be viewed on Geoscience Australia's <a href="http://www.ga.gov.au/about/projects/safety/nsha">National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA) Internet Page</a> <b>Value: </b> Data used to generate the NSHA <b>Scope: </b>Continental scale

The 20th May 2016 moment magnitude (MW) 6.1 Petermann earthquake was the 2nd longest single-event historic Australian surface rupture (21 km) and largest MW on-shore earthquake in 28 years. Trench logs from two hand-dug trenches show no evidence of penultimate rupture of surface eolian sediments or underlying calcrete. Available dating of eolian dunes 140 to 500 km away from the Petermann fault indicated eolian deposition during either the last glacial maximum (approximately 20 ka) or a period of aridification at approximately 180 - 200 ka. Ten 10Be cosmogenic nuclide erosion rates of bedrock outcrops at 0 to 50 km from the surface rupture trace are within error of each other between 1.4 to 2.6 mMyr-1. These samples have approximate averaging times between 208 to 419 ka. Bedrock erosion rates, trenching results and interpretation of the landscape history suggest the 2016 event is the only surface rupturing earthquake on the Petermann fault in the last 200 to 400 kyrs, and possibly the first ever on this fault. This finding is consistent with a lack of evidence for penultimate rupture for all eleven historic Australian surface rupturing events, as described by either trenching and/or landscape analysis and bedrock erosion rates. These ‘one-off’ events within Precambrian cratonic Australian crust are not consistent with trenching results and geomorphology of paleo-scarps within the Flinders Ranges and Eastern Australia which indicate multiple recurrent fault offset. Variable fault recurrence behaviour highlights that uniform seismic hazard modelling approaches are not applicable across Stable Continental Regions.

Earthquake Environmental Effects (EEEs) identified in the source region of the 20th May 2016 intraplate moment magnitude (Mw) 6.1 Petermann earthquake in Central Australia are described and classified using the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) scale. EEEs include surface rupture, ground fissures and cracks, vegetation damage, rockfalls, and displaced (jumped) bedrock fragments. The maximum ESI intensity derived from EEEs is X, consistent with previous observations from some moderate Mw crustal earthquakes. Maximum ESI isoseismals correlate with the location of the surface rupture rather than epicentre area due to the dipping geometry of the reverse source fault. ESI isoseismals encompass a larger area of the hanging-wall than the footwall, indicating stronger ground motions on the hanging-wall due to increased proximity to the rupture source and ground motion amplification effects. The maximum areal extent of secondary (seismic shaking-induced) EEEs (300 km2) is significantly smaller than expected using the published ESI-07 scale (approx. 5000 km2). This relates to the low topographic relief and relatively homogeneous bedrock geology of the study region, which (i) reduced the potential for site response amplification of strong ground motions, and (ii) reduced the susceptibility of the landscape to EEE such as landsliding and liquefaction. Erosional degradation of the observed EEE features and decreasing confidence with which they can be uniquely attributed to a seismic origin with increasing time since the earthquake highlight challenges in using many of the natural features observed herein to characterise the locations and attributes of paleo-earthquakes.