Compositional data from a soil survey over north Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, are used to develop and test an empirical soil provenancing method. Mineralogical data from Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy (FTIR) and Magnetic Susceptibility (MS), and geochemical data from X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF; for total major oxides) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS; for both total and aqua regia-soluble trace elements), are performed on the survey’s 268 topsoil samples (0-5 cm depth; 1 sample per km2). Principal components (PCs) are calculated after imputation of censored data and centred logratio transformation. The sequential provenancing approach is underpinned by (i) the preparation of interpolated raster grids of the soil properties (including PCs); (ii) the explicit quantification and propagation of uncertainty; (iii) the intersection of the soil property rasters with the values of the evidentiary sample (± uncertainty); and (iv) the computation of cumulative provenance rasters (‘heat maps’) for the various analytical techniques. The sequential provenancing method is tested in the north Canberra soil survey with three ‘blind’ samples representing simulated evidentiary samples. Performance metrics of precision and accuracy indicate that the FTIR and MS (mineralogy), as well as XRF and total ICP-MS (geochemistry) analytical methods offer the most precise and accurate provenance predictions. Inclusions of PCs in provenancing adds marginally to the performance. Maximising the number of analytes/analytical techniques is advantageous in soil provenancing. Despite acknowledged limitations and gaps, it is concluded that the empirical soil provenancing approach can play an important role in forensic and intelligence applications. <b>Citation:</b> de Caritat, P., Woods, B., Simpson, T., Nichols, C., Hoogenboom, L., Ilheo, A., Aberle, M.G. and Hoogewerff, J. (2021), Forensic soil provenancing in an urban/suburban setting: A sequential multivariate approach. <i>J Forensic Sci</i>, 66: 1679-1696. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14727

Soil is a ubiquitous material at the Earth's surface with potential to be a useful evidence class in forensic and intelligence applications. Compositional data from a soil survey over North Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, are used to develop and test an empirical soil provenancing method. Mineralogical data from Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy (FTIR) and geochemical data from X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF; for total major oxides) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS; for both total and aqua regia-soluble trace elements) are obtained from the survey's 268 topsoil samples (0–5 cm depth; 1 sample per km2). The simultaneous provenancing approach is underpinned by (i) the calculation of Spearman's correlation coefficients (rS) between an evidentiary sample and all the samples in the database for all variables generated by each analytical method; and (ii) the preparation of an interpolated raster grid of rS for each evidentiary sample and method resulting in a series of provenance rasters (“heat maps”). The simultaneous provenancing method is tested on the North Canberra soil survey with three “blind” samples representing simulated evidentiary samples. Performance metrics of precision and accuracy indicate that the FTIR (mineralogy) and XRF (geochemistry) analytical methods offer the most precise and accurate provenance predictions. Maximizing the number of analytes/analytical techniques is advantageous in soil provenancing. Despite acknowledged limitations, it is concluded that the empirical soil provenancing approach can play an important role in forensic and intelligence applications. <b>Citation:</b> de Caritat, P, Woods, B, Simpson, T, Nichols, C, Hoogenboom, L, Ilheo, A, et al. Forensic soil provenancing in an urban/suburban setting: A simultaneous multivariate approach. <i>J Forensic Sci</i>. 2022; 67: 927–935. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14967

<div>Soil is a complex and spatially variable material that has a demonstrated potential to be a useful evidence class in forensic casework and intelligence operations. Here, the capability to spatially constrain searches and prioritise resources by triaging areas as low and high interest is advantageous. Conducted between 2017 and 2021, a forensically relevant topsoil survey (0-5 cm depth; 1 sample per 1 km2) has been carried out over Canberra, Australia, with the aims of documenting the distribution of chemical elements in an urban/suburban environment, and of acting as a testbed for investigating various aspects of forensic soil provenancing. Geochemical data from X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF; for total major oxides) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS; for trace elements) following a total digestion (HF + HNO3) were obtained from the survey’s 685 topsoil samples (plus 138 additional quality control samples and six “Blind” simulated evidentiary samples). Using those “Blind” samples, we document a likelihood ratio approach where for each grid cell the analytical similarity between the grid cell and evidentiary sample is attributed from a measure of overlap between both Cauchy distributions, including appropriate uncertainties. Unlike existing methods that base inclusion/exclusion on an arbitrary threshold (e.g., ± three standard deviations), our approach is free from strict binary or Boolean thresholds, providing an unconstrained gradual transition dictated by the analytical similarity. Using this provenancing model, we present and evaluate a new method for upscaling from a fine (25 m x 25 m) interpolated grid to a more appropriate coarser (500 m x 500 m) grid, in addition to an objective method using Random Match Probabilities for ranking individual variables to be used for provenancing prior to receiving evidentiary material. Our results show this collective procedure generates more consistent and robust provenance maps between two different interpolation algorithms (e.g., inverse distance weighting, and natural neighbour), grid placements (e.g., grid shifts to the north or east) and theoretical users (e.g., different computer systems, or forensic geoscientists).</div> <b>Citation:</b> Michael G. Aberle, Patrice de Caritat, James Robertson, Jurian A. Hoogewerff, A robust interpolation-based method for forensic soil provenancing: A Bayesian likelihood ratio approach,<i> Forensic Science International</i>, Volume 353, 2023, 111883, ISSN 0379-0738. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2023.111883.