Compositional data from a soil survey over north Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, are used to develop and test an empirical soil provenancing method. Mineralogical data from Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy (FTIR) and Magnetic Susceptibility (MS), and geochemical data from X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF; for total major oxides) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS; for both total and aqua regia-soluble trace elements), are performed on the survey’s 268 topsoil samples (0-5 cm depth; 1 sample per km2). Principal components (PCs) are calculated after imputation of censored data and centred logratio transformation. The sequential provenancing approach is underpinned by (i) the preparation of interpolated raster grids of the soil properties (including PCs); (ii) the explicit quantification and propagation of uncertainty; (iii) the intersection of the soil property rasters with the values of the evidentiary sample (± uncertainty); and (iv) the computation of cumulative provenance rasters (‘heat maps’) for the various analytical techniques. The sequential provenancing method is tested in the north Canberra soil survey with three ‘blind’ samples representing simulated evidentiary samples. Performance metrics of precision and accuracy indicate that the FTIR and MS (mineralogy), as well as XRF and total ICP-MS (geochemistry) analytical methods offer the most precise and accurate provenance predictions. Inclusions of PCs in provenancing adds marginally to the performance. Maximising the number of analytes/analytical techniques is advantageous in soil provenancing. Despite acknowledged limitations and gaps, it is concluded that the empirical soil provenancing approach can play an important role in forensic and intelligence applications. <b>Citation:</b> de Caritat, P., Woods, B., Simpson, T., Nichols, C., Hoogenboom, L., Ilheo, A., Aberle, M.G. and Hoogewerff, J. (2021), Forensic soil provenancing in an urban/suburban setting: A sequential multivariate approach. <i>J Forensic Sci</i>, 66: 1679-1696. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14727

Soil is a ubiquitous material at the Earth's surface with potential to be a useful evidence class in forensic and intelligence applications. Compositional data from a soil survey over North Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, are used to develop and test an empirical soil provenancing method. Mineralogical data from Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy (FTIR) and geochemical data from X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF; for total major oxides) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS; for both total and aqua regia-soluble trace elements) are obtained from the survey's 268 topsoil samples (0–5 cm depth; 1 sample per km2). The simultaneous provenancing approach is underpinned by (i) the calculation of Spearman's correlation coefficients (rS) between an evidentiary sample and all the samples in the database for all variables generated by each analytical method; and (ii) the preparation of an interpolated raster grid of rS for each evidentiary sample and method resulting in a series of provenance rasters (“heat maps”). The simultaneous provenancing method is tested on the North Canberra soil survey with three “blind” samples representing simulated evidentiary samples. Performance metrics of precision and accuracy indicate that the FTIR (mineralogy) and XRF (geochemistry) analytical methods offer the most precise and accurate provenance predictions. Maximizing the number of analytes/analytical techniques is advantageous in soil provenancing. Despite acknowledged limitations, it is concluded that the empirical soil provenancing approach can play an important role in forensic and intelligence applications. <b>Citation:</b> de Caritat, P, Woods, B, Simpson, T, Nichols, C, Hoogenboom, L, Ilheo, A, et al. Forensic soil provenancing in an urban/suburban setting: A simultaneous multivariate approach. <i>J Forensic Sci</i>. 2022; 67: 927–935. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14967