Windstorms cause most of the damage to housing in Australia. Population growth is exposing more people and buildings to risks from these wind hazards. Houses and components are currently designed and built to standards aligned with the Building Code of Australia. Regulatory measures including building inspections are meant to ensure acceptable quality of construction. Inspections and post windstorm damage surveys have consistently shown that contemporary houses (post 1980) perform better than older houses (pre 1980) in cyclone and non cyclone areas. However, errors in design and construction found during recent surveys, reduce the resilience of contemporary housing. Geoscience Australia is developing a software tool for assessing the vulnerability of housing, using empirical models, expert opinion, and engineering methods. These models could be used to assess vulnerability of a range of house types and also recommend adaptation measure to account for increases in the intensity of windstorms in Australia.

Australia has a low to moderate seismicity by world standards. However, the seismic risk is significant due to the legacy of older buildings constructed prior to the national implementation of an earthquake building standard in Australia. The 1989 Newcastle and the 2010 Kalgoorlie earthquakes are the most recent Australian earthquakes to cause significant damage to unreinforced masonry (URM) and light timber frame structures and have provided the best opportunities to examine the earthquake vulnerability of these building types. This paper describes the two above mentioned building types with a differentiation of older legacy buildings constructed prior to 1945 to the relatively newer ones constructed after 1945. Furthermore, the paper presents method to utilise the large damage and loss related data (14,000 insurance claims in Newcastle and 400 surveyed buildings in Kalgoorlie) collected from these events to develop empirical vulnerability functions. The method adopted here followed the GEM Empirical Vulnerability Assessment Guidelines which involves preparing of a loss database, selecting an appropriate intensity measure, selecting and applying a suitable statistical approach to develop vulnerability functions and the identification of optimum functions. The adopted method uses a rigorous statistical approach to quantify uncertainty in vulnerability functions and provides an optimum solution based on goodness-of-fit tests. The analysis shows that the URM structures built before 1945 are the most vulnerable to earthquake with post 1945 URM structures being the next most vulnerable. Timber structures appear to be the least vulnerable, with little difference observed in the vulnerability of timber buildings built before or after 1945. Moreover, the older structures (both URM and timber) depict exhibit more scatter in results reflecting greater variation in building vulnerability and performance during earthquakes. The analysis also highlights the importance of collecting high quality damage and loss data which is, not only a fundamental requirement for developing empirical vulnerability functions, and but is also useful in validating analytically derived vulnerability functions. The vulnerability functions developed herein are the first publically available functions for Australian URM and timber structures. They can be used for seismic risk assessment and to focus the rm a basis for development ofing retrofit strategies to reduce the existing earthquake risk.

Modelling of the risk posed by the impacts of extreme weather events requires knowledge of the vulnerability, or performance, of building assets. Furthermore, to assess the benefits of mitigation an ability to quantitatively model the change in vulnerability associated with mitigation actions is required. In Australia past efforts at establishing vulnerability relationships between building damage and severe wind have centred on empirical techniques, using data from damage surveys or insurance losses, and heuristic techniques. Neither of these methods permits the change in vulnerability afforded by mitigation work to be quantitatively modelled. The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project “Improving the Resilience of Existing Housing to Severe Wind Events” is developing a software tool, Vulnerability and Adaption to Wind Simulation (VAWS), to provide a quantitative vulnerability model for Australian house types. It is based on the premise that overall building damage is strongly related to the failure of key connections. The software uses a Monte Carlo approach whereby numerous realisations of a single generic house type are subjected to an increasing gust wind speed and the loss at each wind speed is calculated. Each realisation of the house varies from others as many key building parameters, such as connection strength, are sampled from probability distributions. For each instance, at each wind speed, the number and type of failed connections are related to damage states and extents of damage which permits the repair cost to be calculated. The repair cost is adjusted for the repair of debris impact damage and water ingress damage. The modelling of mitigation is easily accomplished by rerunning a house modelled with the probability distribution of an upgraded connection’s strength substituted. The software tool provides quantitative measures of reduced vulnerability that can be used in assessing the incremental effectiveness of a range of mitigation strategies in economic terms. Abstract submitted to/presented at AMOS-ICSHMO 2018 (https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/meetings-events/ams-meetings/amos-icshmo-2018/)

Australian Community Climate and Earth-System (ACCESS) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data is made available by the Bureau of Meteorology for registered subscribers such as GA. ACCESS-C3 (City) model is a forecast-only model performed every 6 hours and consists of grid coordinates covering domains around Sydney, Victoria and Tasmania, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Darwin. ACCESS Impact Modelling (ACCESS-IM) System utilise information from ACCESS-NWP on the forecast wind gust speeds ground surface (single-level) at 10 metres, simulated by the ACCESS-C3 model, for the time period of 0-12, 12-24, 24-36, 0-36.

The Risk and Impact Analysis Group (RIAG) at Geoscience Australia (GA) in Canberra is a multidisciplinary research team. Their key role is to develop knowledge on the risk from natural and human-caused hazards for input to policy and operational decision makers for the mitigation of risk to Australian communities. The RIAG achieves this through the development of computational methods, models and decision support tools that assess the hazard, vulnerability and risk posed by hazards. The RIAG also works with other agencies to develop and collect information on natural disasters that is essential for developing valid risk models for forecasting the impact of future hazard events. The Group includes hazard experts, numerical modellers, engineers, economists, and GIS specialists. This paper will discuss the risk analysis process used at GA, with a particular focus on the vulnerability component. Earthquake and tsunami risk examples will highlight technical aspects of the work and step through the risk analysis framework that has been adopted. The method being used to develop vulnerability models for the wind and tsunami hazard is an engineering model approach. The method requires a generalised hazard definition, an engineering model of a particular structure, and a costing module to calculate the real cost of repairs. The initial focus will be Australian residential structures. The engineering model is based on the assumption that connection failure is the primary initiator of structural failure in residential structures (as opposed to say, a beam or wall stud failing in bending). It also assumes that component failures can be aggregated up into overall damage scenarios. The engineering model employs a Monte Carlo simulation approach that allows for the incorporation of variability (in connection strengths, building orientation, opening sizes, and key hazard parameters). The engineering model approach also allows the opportunity to investigate mitigation options through strengthening structural components. The multi-hazard risk approach used at GA is a move towards being able to make informed decisions on how to manage the risk from natural hazards. This paper has presented examples of computational natural hazard risk with a particular focus on the development of engineering vulnerability models. Presented at the International Forum on Engineering Decision Making, 12th to 15th Dec, 2007, Port Stephens, NSW.

Modelling the effectiveness of retrofit to legacy houses requires a quantitative estimate of the houses’ vulnerability to severe wind and how the vulnerability is affected by mitigation work. Historical approaches to estimating vulnerability through either heuristic or empirical methods do not quantitatively capture the change in vulnerability afforded by mitigation. To address this information gap the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project “Improving the Resilience of Existing Housing to Severe Wind Events” has augmented a software tool which models damage from wind loads and associated repair cost. In this paper the development process is described including the establishment of a suite of test cases to assess the effectiveness of the software. An example of the validation work is presented along with the augmentation of the software from the previous version. Finally, use of the software in assessing the incremental effectiveness of a range of mitigation strategies in economic terms is described. Abstract submitted to/presented at the19th Australasian Wind Engineering Society Workshop.

Natural disasters provide an invaluable opportunity to capture data for improving our understanding of risk. Observed damage types and their predominance provide useful insights into the factors contributing to building vulnerability and consequential community risk. They also facilitate the appraisal of mitigation measures directed at reducing that risk where it is found to be high. Survey activities that followed the impact of Tropical Cyclone Larry have highlighted the benefits of a co-ordinated survey response to natural hazard impacts. The response to this event involved liaison with local emergency management and the broad participation of recognised wind engineering experts. Survey techniques were refined to achieve a more efficient and comprehensive approach that ensured consistency, utility and transferability of the data for all collaborators. The refined approach proved very successful and may provide a useful model for similar post-disaster exercises directed at earthquake damage. The sudden nature by which earthquakes inflict damage without warning points to having arrangements already established beforehand for the best survey outcomes. Proposals for advancing such preplanning are presented.

Australian Community Climate and Earth-System (ACCESS) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data is made available by the Bureau of Meteorology for registered subscribers such as GA. ACCESS-C3 (City) model is a forecast-only model performed every 6 hours and consists of grid coordinates covering domains around Sydney, Victoria and Tasmania, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Darwin. ACCESS Impact Modelling (ACCESS-IM) System utilise information from ACCESS-NWP on the forecast wind gust speeds ground surface (single-level) at 10 metres, simulated by the ACCESS-C3 model, for the time period of 0-12, 12-24, 24-36, 0-36.

A presentation delivered at the Australia Reinsurance Pool Corporation / Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (ARPC/OECD) Terrorism Risk Insurance Conference held in Canberra from 6-7 October 2016. The presentation focusses on GA's work with the ARPC in developing a capability to estimate insured losses due to blast in Australian cities.

<div>The Severe Wind Hazard Assessment for South East Queensland (SWHA-SEQ) analysed risk from severe wind events in a marginal tropical cyclone (TC) region with a large exposed population, and historical severe thunderstorm and TC impacts. SWHA-SEQ was a collaborative effort bringing together 15 partners across government, academia and the insurance sector to improve the collective understanding of wind risk in the region and inform future strategies to reduce this risk, in the context of climate change, urban planning and socio-economic status of the population. </div><div>The project involved enhancing the understanding of hazard, exposure and physical vulnerability to strengthen the comprehension of risk, including local-scale wind hazard from thunderstorm and TC wind gusts, and a semi-quantitative analysis of future wind hazard. Structural characteristics of residential housing stock were updated through a combination of street surveys, national databases of built assets and insurance portfolio statistics. Vulnerability models for residential houses including retrofitted models for 5 common house types were developed, alongside identification of key vulnerability factors for residential strata buildings.</div><div>Local governments are building on the outcomes of the project, with the City of Gold Coast using the project outcomes as the key evidence base for a A$100m investment over 7 years to advocate for uplift of building design criteria, targeted community engagement and resilience of City-owned infrastructure. Other local governments have conducted specific exercises exploring how they would manage a severe TC impact. The investments and activities directly flowing from SWHA-SEQ are testament to the partner engagement through the project. Presented at the 2024 Symposium on Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate (SHRCC2024)