<div>Disruptions to the global supply chains of critical raw materials (CRM) have the potential to delay or increase the cost of the renewable energy transition. However, for some CRM, the primary drivers of these supply chain disruptions are likely to be issues related to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) rather than geological scarcity. Herein we combine public geospatial data as mappable proxies for key ESG indicators (e.g., conservation, biodiversity, freshwater, energy, waste, land use, human development, health and safety, and governance) and a global dataset of news events to train and validate three models for predicting “conflict” events (e.g., disputes, protests, violence) that can negatively impact CRM supply chains: (1) a knowledge-driven fuzzy logic model that yields an area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver operating characteristics plot of 0.72 for the entire model; (2) a naïve Bayes model that yields an AUC of 0.81 for the test set; and (3) a deep learning model comprising stacked autoencoders and a feed-forward artificial neural network that yields an AUC of 0.91 for the test set. The high AUC of the deep learning model demonstrates that public geospatial data can accurately predict natural resources conflicts, but we show that machine learning results are biased by proxies for population density and likely underestimate the potential for conflict in remote areas. Knowledge-driven methods are the least impacted by population bias and are used to calculate an ESG rating that is then applied to a global dataset of lithium occurrences as a case study. We demonstrate that giant lithium brine deposits (i.e., >10&nbsp;Mt Li2O) are restricted to regions with higher spatially situated risks relative to a subset of smaller pegmatite-hosted deposits that yield higher ESG ratings (i.e., lower risk). Our results reveal trade-offs between the sources of lithium, resource size, and spatially situated risks. We suggest that this type of geospatial ESG rating is broadly applicable to other CRM and that mapping spatially situated risks prior to mineral exploration has the potential to improve ESG outcomes and government policies that strengthen supply chains. <b>Citation:</b> Haynes M, Chudasama B, Goodenough K, Eerola T, Golev A, Zhang SE, Park J and Lèbre E (2024) Geospatial Data and Deep Learning Expose ESG Risks to Critical Raw Materials Supply: The Case of Lithium. <i>Earth Sci. Syst. Soc. </i>4:10109. doi: 10.3389/esss.2024.10109

The Australian Resource Reviews are periodic national assessments of individual mineral commodities. The reviews include evaluations of short-term and long-term trends for each mineral resource, world rankings, production data, significant exploration results and an overview of mining industry developments.

<div>Australia's Identified Mineral Resources is an annual national assessment that takes a long-term view of Australian mineral resources likely to be available for mining. The assessment also includes evaluations of long-term trends in mineral resources, world rankings, summaries of significant exploration results and brief reviews of mining industry developments.</div>

<div>With a higher demand for lithium (Li), a better understanding of its concentration and spatial distribution is important to delineate potential anomalous areas. This study uses a digital soil mapping framework to combine data from recent geochemical surveys and environmental covariates to predict and map Li content across the 7.6 million km2 area of Australia. Soil samples were collected by the National Geochemical Survey of Australia at a total of 1315 sites, with both top (0–10 cm depth) and bottom (on average 60–80 cm depth) catchment outlet sediments sampled. We developed 50 bootstrap models using a Cubist regression tree algorithm for both depths. The spatial prediction models were validated on an independent Northern Australia Geochemical Survey dataset, showing a good prediction with an RMSE of 3.82 mg kg-1 for the top depth. The model for the bottom depth has yet to be validated. The variables of importance for the models indicated that the first three Landsat bands and gamma radiometric dose have a strong impact on Li prediction. The bootstrapped models were then used to generate digital soil Li prediction maps for both depths, which could select and delineate areas with anomalously high Li concentrations in the regolith. The map shows high Li concentration around existing mines and other potentially anomalous Li areas. The same mapping principles can potentially be applied to other elements.&nbsp;</div> <b>Citation:</b> Ng, W., Minasny, B., McBratney, A., de Caritat, P., and Wilford, J.: Digital soil mapping of lithium in Australia, <i>Earth Syst. Sci. Data</i>, 15, 2465–2482, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2465-2023, <b>2023</b>.