In plate boundary regions moderate to large earthquakes are often sufficiently frequent that fundamental seismic parameters such as the recurrence intervals of large earthquakes and maximum credible earthquake (Mmax) can be estimated with some degree of confidence. The same is not true for the Stable Continental Regions (SCRs) of the world. Large earthquakes are so infrequent that the data distributions upon which recurrence and Mmax estimates are based are heavily skewed towards magnitudes below Mw5.0, and so require significant extrapolation up to magnitudes for which the most damaging ground-shaking might be expected. The rarity of validating evidence from surface rupturing palaeo-earthquakes typically limits the confidence with which these extrapolated statistical parameters may be applied. Herein we present a new earthquake catalogue containing, in addition to the historic record of seismicity, 150 palaeo-earthquakes derived from 60 palaeo-earthquake features spanning the last > 100 ka of the history of the Precambrian shield and fringing extended margin of southwest Western Australia. From this combined dataset we show that Mmax in non-extended-SCR is M7.25 ± 0.1 and in extended-SCR is M7.65 ± 0.1. We also demonstrate that in the 230,000 km2 area of non-extended-SCR crust, the rate of seismic activity required to build these scarps is one tenth of the contemporary seismicity in the area, consistent with episodic or clustered models describing SCR earthquake recurrence. A dominance in the landscape of earthquake scarps reflecting multiple events suggests that the largest earthquakes are likely to occur on pre-existing faults. We expect these results might apply to most areas of non-extended-SCR worldwide.

Tectonic geomorphology along the continental margin of Western Australia indicates the presence of an approximately 2000 km long zone of dextral-oblique neotectonic faults and folds referred to as the Western Australian shear zone (WASZ). The WASZ reoccupies older rift related structures that initially formed during periods of continental-scale fragmentation in the Paleozoic and Mesozoic Eras. Reactivation in the WASZ is coincident with late Neogene reorganization of Australia’s plate boundaries and realignment of the intraplate stress field. Neotectonic deformation in the southern WASZ is dominated by transpressional inversion within the extended crustal domain between Australian oceanic crust to the west and non-extended Australian continental crust to the east. The WASZ appears to accommodate differential motion expressed as dextral transpression between oceanic and non-extended continental tectonic blocks—or micro-plates.

<div>The city of Lae is Papua New Guinea (PNG)’s second largest, and is the home of PNG’s largest port. Here, a convergence rate of ~50 mm/yr between the South Bismarck Plate and the Australian Plate is accommodated across the Ramu-Markham Fault Zone (RMFZ). The active structures of the RMFZ are relatively closely spaced to the west of Lae. However, the fault zone bifurcates immediately west of the Lae urban area, with one strand continuing to the east, and a second strand trending southeast through Lae City and connecting to the Markham Trench within the Huon Gulf. </div><div>The geomorphology of the Lae region relates to the interaction between riverine (and limited marine) deposition and erosion, and range-building over low-angle thrust faults of the RMFZ. Flights of river terraces imply repeated tectonic uplift events; dating of these terraces will constrain the timing of past earthquakes and associated recurrence intervals. Terrace riser heights are typically on the order of 3 m, indicating causative earthquake events of greater than magnitude 7. </div><div>Future work will expose the most recently active fault traces in trenches to assess single event displacements, and extend the study to the RMFZ north of Nadzab Airport. These results will inform a seismic hazard and risk assessment for Lae city and surrounding region.</div> Presented at the 2023 Australian Earthquake Engineering Society (AEES) Conference