Precompetitive geoscience for minerals discovery

The world is turning to the minerals sector to meet sustainable development goals on the path to net zero emissions, buoyed by modern manufacturing. Discovery and development of new and varied mineral deposits is essential to reach these goals. However, despite concerted efforts, exploration success rates are in decline globally. To provide an advantage to Australia’s mineral sector, the Australian Government has significantly invested in precompetitive geoscience to unlock both geographic and conceptual frontiers for further exploration and discovery by private industry. Over the last decade, Geoscience Australia, in collaboration with state/territory geological surveys and academia, has undertaken geoscience data acquisition and analysis at an unprecedented scale aligned with UNCOVER initiative through programs like Exploring for the Future. This strategic move has reversed Australia’s declining market share of global exploration investment, stimulated new minerals industries, led to the discovery of world-class mineral deposits, and opened new undercover provinces for exploration. Here, I highlight some key successes, consider some key challenges, and suggest a future direction for precompetitive geoscience. Australia is at the forefront of mineral systems science underpinned by world-leading standardised national geological and geophysical (i.e. potential field) data coverages. Acquired at increasing resolution over decades, they have been at the vanguard of mineral exploration as they effectively map lateral geological changes yet provide limited and non-unique insights with depth. Recognising mineral deposits are the consequence of large geological systems, a critical step change in the last decade has been a focus on extensive first-pass or framework 3D imaging of the Australian continent through the systematic collection of magnetotelluric (AusLAMP), passive seismic (AusArray) and airborne electromagnetic (AusAEM) data, supplemented by higher fidelity deep reflection seismic profiles. Aided by significant advances in geophysical processing, Bayesian inference and big data analytics, when integrated with classic geoscience these datasets are revealing new first-order controls on mineralisation and identifying new exploration opportunities. Examples include discovery of lithospheric thickness controls on sediment-hosted base-metal deposits, clear scale reduction approaches to targeting iron oxide-copper-gold systems using electrical methods and mapping source rocks of hydrothermal systems. Using statistical modelling, the predictive power of each dataset or derivative can be assessed allowing an unbiased national view of Australia’s mineral potential to emerge. Importantly, these advances are coupled with recommencement of stratigraphic drilling programs to test inference and demonstrably reduce risk of exploring in frontier regions. Systematic quantitative mineral potential analysis rapidly highlights the importance of data consistency, completeness, and the robustness of validation datasets and in so doing reaffirms the critical role geological surveys play as custodians of this information. The diversification of mineral demand to include critical minerals has both leveraged this information to identify new types of mineral deposits but also highlights the youthfulness of mineral systems science. In response there are growing international efforts to grow understanding of minerals systems science for all elements to enable exploration for critical minerals and realise secondary prospectivity of mine waste. The wave of 3D imaging of Australia is developing a framework 3D digital twin and national scale mineral potential models are emerging. The challenge for precompetitive geoscience is to strategically infill this coverage to further accelerate exploration and development by industry. However, given competing land use claims and increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG) requirements on the minerals sector, success requires a common understanding of subsurface geology across minerals, energy and groundwater industries, which dovetails with surficial, social and governance datasets. Delivery of such integrated subsurface understanding is an exciting and vital challenge for geological surveys and their collaborators.