Authors / CoAuthors
Arthur, C.
Abstract
The Regional Tropical Cyclone Hazard for Infrastructure Adaptation to Climate Change project aims to provide improved estimates of tropical cyclone wind hazard in current and future climates, for use in adaptation strategies such as wind speed-based building design criteria. The overarching goal is to make practical recommendations regarding the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones. This is most effectively achieved through evaluating the effect of climate change on extreme return period wind speeds (or severe wind hazard) across tropical Australia. In this manner, the combined effects of changes in frequency, intensity and spatial distribution of tropical cyclone events are integrated into a single quantity. Return period values are used widely in building design standards, and so represent an excellent way of informing adaptation decisions. Preceding components of the project evaluated the performance of existing general circulation models to simulate aspects of the climate important for tropical cyclones. Downscaling methods were applied to these models to create climatological simulations of tropical cyclones for input into Geoscience Australia's statistical-parametric tropical cyclone model. This, in turn, provided new estimates of severe wind hazard in both current and future climates, which may be used to make recommendations for adaptation strategies on a regional basis. Achieving this goal has required a close collaboration between the University of Melbourne, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CMAR) and Geoscience Australia. Analysis of the general circulation models and downscaling was undertaken by University of Melbourne. The downscaling was achieved using CMAR's Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). This report details the approach used by Geoscience Australia to evaluate severe wind hazard using statistical models, and analyses the effect of climate change on severe wind hazard.
Product Type
dataset
eCat Id
72984
Contact for the resource
Point of contact
Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
Canberra
ACT
2601
Australia
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- Contact instructions
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Keywords
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- Data Package
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- climate
- ( Theme )
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- wind
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- risk analysis
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
Publication Date
2010-01-01T00:00:00
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geoscientificInformation
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