Authors / CoAuthors
Cechet, R.P. | Arthur, W.C. | Wehner, M. | Sanabria, A. | Nadimpalli, K.
Abstract
Climate change is expected to increase severe wind hazard in many regions of the Australian continent with consequences for exposed infrastructure and human populations. The objective of this study is to provide a nationally consistent assessment of wind risk under current climate and to provide preliminary indications of the effects (impact) of future hazard under several climate change scenarios. This is being undertaken by considering wind hazard, infrastructure exposure and wind vulnerability of infrastructure (residential buildings). The National Wind Risk Assessment (NWRA) will identify communities subject to high wind risk under present climate, and which will be most susceptible to any climate change related exacerbation of local wind hazard. While there is significant uncertainty on what the likelihood of extreme winds will be in the future, the understanding of current local wind hazard for the Australian region is also in need of improvement. Australian wind hazard is based on the statistical analysis of extreme wind observations and engineering judgement. Observations include peak 3-second gusts captured at about 30 meteorological measurement stations, mainly located at significant city and regional airports. These provide poor spatial representation with regard to wind hazard. This study is taking advantage of modelled wind hazard assessments (current climate) being developed at Geoscience Australia utilising separate techniques for the three main wind hazards: tropical cyclones; thunderstorms; and synoptic winds. A stochastic model based on observed and modelled cyclone tracks is used to obtain an understanding of cyclonic wind hazard. Two statistical approaches involving observed and modelled vertical instability and mean wind speed fields (via high-resolution regional climate model) are the basis for the thunderstorm and synoptic wind hazard.
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document
eCat Id
69827
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- External Publication
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- risk assessment
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
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2010-01-01T00:00:00
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