Authors / CoAuthors
Allen, T.I. | Griffin, J.D. | Leonard, M. | Clark, D.J. | Ghasemi, H.
Abstract
Seismic hazard assessments in stable continental regions such as Australia face considerable challenges compared with active tectonic regions. Long earthquake recurrence intervals relative to historical records make forecasting the magnitude, rates and locations of future earthquakes difficult. Similarly, there are few recordings of strong ground motions from moderate-to-large earthquakes to inform development and selection of appropriate ground motion models (GMMs). Through thorough treatment of these epistemic uncertainties, combined with major improvements to the earthquake catalog, a National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18) of Australia has been undertaken. The resulting hazard levels at the 10% in 50-year probability of exceedance level are in general significantly lower than previous assessments, including hazard factors used in the Australian earthquake loading standard (AS1170.4–2007 [R2018]), demonstrating our evolving understanding of seismic hazard in Australia. The key reasons for the decrease in seismic hazard factors are adjustments to catalog magnitudes for earthquakes in the early instrumental period, and the use of modern ground-motion attenuation models. This article summarizes the development of the NSHA18, explores uncertainties associated with the hazard model, and identifies the dominant factors driving the resulting changes in hazard compared with previous assessments.
Product Type
document
eCat Id
126324
Contact for the resource
Point of contact for the resource
Point of contact
Point of contact
Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
Canberra
ACT
2601
Australia
Digital Object Identifier
Keywords
- ( Theme )
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- earthquake hazard
- ( Theme )
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- epistemic uncertainty
- theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
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- EARTH SCIENCES
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- Published_External
Publication Date
2020-03-02T03:46:29
Creation Date
2019-01-14T12:00:00
Security Constraints
Classification - unclassified
Legal Constraints
Status
completed
Purpose
External Publication
Maintenance Information
notPlanned
Topic Category
geoscientificInformation
Series Information
Earthquake Spectra
Lineage
Parent Information
Extents
[-44, -9, 112, 154]
Reference System
Spatial Resolution
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Associations
Source Information