Authors / CoAuthors
Lovholt, F. | Griffin, J.D. | Salgado-Galvez, M.A.
Abstract
Tsunamis are infrequent events with the power to cause massive loss of life, large economic losses, and cascading effects such as destruction of critical facilities. The recurrence of the truly disastrous events may range from hundreds to even thousands of years. To manage these events, scientists turn to hazard and risk analysis. This typically involves a quantification of the temporal probability of a tsunami run-up height at a coastal location or region, often involving long recurrence, labelled the hazard analysis. Correspondingly the risk analysis concerns probability of damage and loss, using the hazard analysis as the basis. We here present the first fully probabilistic global tsunami hazard and risk analysis, by using large earthquakes as sources. Unlike more frequent hazards as for instance floods and cyclones, tsunami risk analysis cannot make use of historical records. The hazard analysis is rather based on the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) method, which employs earthquake sources to quantify the probability of tsunami run-up and inundation height at coastal locations. Based on the PTHA, a probabilistic risk analysis quantifying the probability of direct building damage losses is conducted for all tsunami prone countries worldwide. Being a global analysis comprising the most relevant tsunami sources and probabilities, the study provides an overview of the global tsunami risk state-of-affairs on the national scale. Originally developed for broad interdisciplinary multi-risk studies comparing various natural hazards on the national and regional scale, the methods and results presented here are however not suitable for detailed local studies of the tsunami hazard and risk.
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nonGeographicDataset
eCat Id
83723
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Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
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Keywords
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- External Publication
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_External
Publication Date
2015-01-01T00:00:00
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geoscientificInformation
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