Authors / CoAuthors
Sanabria, L.A. | French, I. | Cechet, R.P.
Abstract
We have developed a Building Fire Impact Model to evaluate the probability that a building located in a peri-urban region of a community is affected/destroyed by a forest fire. The methodology is based on a well-known mathematical technique called Event Tree (ET) modeling, which is a useful graphical way of representing the dependency of events. The tree nodes are the event itself, and the branches are formed with the probability of the event happening. If the event can be represented by a discrete random variable, the number of possible realisations of the event and their corresponding probability of occurring, conditional on the realisations of the previous event, is given by the branches. As the probability of each event is displayed conditional on the occurrence of events that precede it in the tree, the joint probability of the simultaneous occurrence of events that constitute a path is found by multiplication (Hasofer et al., 2007). BFIM contains a basic implementation of the main elements of bushfire characteristics, house vulnerability and human intervention. In the first pass of the BFIM model, the characteristics of the bushfire in the neighboring region to the house is considered as well as the characteristics of the house and the occupants of the house. In the second pass, the number of embers impacting on the house is adjusted for human intervention and wind damage. In the third pass, the model examines house by house conditions to determine what houses have been burnt and their impact on neighboring houses. To illustrate the model application, a community involved in the 2009 Victorian bushfires has been studied and the event post-disaster impact assessment is utilized to validate the model outcomes. MODSIM 2013 Conference
Product Type
nonGeographicDataset
eCat Id
75726
Contact for the resource
Custodian
Point of contact
Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
Canberra
ACT
2601
Australia
Keywords
-
- External PublicationConference Paper
- ( Theme )
-
- risk assessment
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
-
- Environmental Sciences
-
- Published_Internal
Publication Date
2013-01-01T00:00:00
Creation Date
Security Constraints
Legal Constraints
Status
Purpose
Maintenance Information
unknown
Topic Category
environment
Series Information
Lineage
Unknown
Parent Information
Extents
Reference System
Spatial Resolution
Service Information
Associations
Downloads and Links
Source Information
Source data not available.