Tsunami Hazard in the Asia-Pacific: An Urgent Call for More Paleotsunami Research  

Authors / CoAuthors

Cummins, P.R.

Abstract

The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and Indian Ocean Tsunami shattered the paradigm that guided our understanding of giant subduction zone earthquakes: that massive, magnitude 9+ earthquakes occur only in subduction zones experiencing rapid subduction of young oceanic lithosphere. Although this paradigm forms the basis of discussion of subduction zone earthquakes in earth sciences textbooks, the 2004 earthquake was the final blow in an accumulating body of evidence showing that it was simply an artefact of a sparse and biased dataset (Okal, 2008). This has led to the realization that the only factor known to limit the size of megathrust earthquakes is subduction zone length. This new appreciation of subduction zone earthquake potential has important implications for the southern Asia-Pacific region. This region is transected by many thousands of km of active subduction, including the Tonga-Kermadec, Sunda Arc, and the Makran Subduction zone along the northern margin of the Arabian Sea. Judging from length alone, all of these subduction zones are capable of hosting megathrust earthquakes of magnitude greater than 8.5, and most could host earthquakes as large as the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (Mw=9.3). Such events are without historical precedent for many countries bordering the Indian and Pacific Oceans, many of which have large coastal populations immediately proximate to subduction zones. This talk will summarize the current state of knowledge, and lack thereof, of the tsunami hazard in the southern Asia-Pacific region. I will show that 'worst case' scenarios threaten many lives in large coastal communities, but that in most cases the uncertainty in these scenarios is close to 100%. Is the tsunami risk in SE Asia and the SW Pacific really this dire as the worst-case scenarios predict? The answer to this question relies on our ability to extend the record of tsunamis beyond the historical time frame using paleotsunami research.

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nonGeographicDataset

eCat Id

68676

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Keywords

• External Publication

( Theme )

• tsunamis

( Theme )

• geohazards

( Theme )

• geomorphology

Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)

• Earth Sciences

• Published_Internal

Publication Date

2009-02-25T00:00:00

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