Authors / CoAuthors
Cechet, R.P. | Waters, D. | Arthur, W.C. | Nadimpalli, K. | Dale, K.
Abstract
The Garnaut Climate Change Review is an independent study by Professor Ross Garnaut, commissioned by Australia's State and Territory Governments. The Review is examining the impacts of climate change on the Australian economy, in an effort to recommend medium to long-term policies and policy frameworks to improve the prospects for sustainable prosperity. Geoscience Australia's (GA) outputs for the Garnaut Review consider the economic impacts of tropical cyclones on Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia (severe wind and storm surge impacts) for eight climate change greenhouse gas emission scenarios based on model projections of large-scale environmental factors from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report simulations. The study focuses on the evaluation of the wind hazard utilising the maximum potential intensity (MPI). This sets a thermodynamic, theoretical upper limit for the distribution of TC intensities obtained by a TC given a vertical temperature and humidity profile and given location. Storm surge impacts in the same States are developed using a simple parameterisation relating changes in TC intensity to changes in storm surge height including the adoption of the IPCC global mid-point sea-level rise predictions. For this study we consider 20 year time slices centred on; 2010, 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. For each time-slice and for each region, we produce the spatial return-period 'tropical cyclone wind gust speed' ranging from return-periods of 50 years to 5000 years. Direct losses (infrastructure damage) are calculated for each return-period event. The combined losses (severe wind and storm surge) were regressed to obtain a Probable Maximum Loss (PML) curve for each study region. The average annual cost to the region due to exposure to tropical cyclones across a 5000 year period or Annualised losses are evaluated for each study region. Expressing the annualised loss as a percentage of total reconstruction gives a measure of the intensity of the risk to the studied community that is not so evident in simple dollar values. State annualised loss estimates of direct loss were aggregated from estimates at the SLA (statistical local area) level. The aim of the Garnaut Review is to compare the 'business as usual' scenario (A1FI) with a range of stabilisation scenarios.
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document
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65832
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- GA PublicationAbstract
- ( Theme )
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- climate
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
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2008-01-01T00:00:00
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