Papua New Guinea (PNG) lies in a belt of intense tectonic activity that experiences high levels of seismicity. Although this seismicity poses significant risks to society, the Building Code of PNG and its underpinning seismic loading requirements have not been revised since 1982. This study aims to partially address this gap by updating the seismic zoning map on which the earthquake loading component of the building code is based. We performed a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for PNG using the OpenQuake software developed by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (Pagani et al. 2014). Among other enhancements, for the first time together with background sources, individual fault sources are implemented to represent active major and microplate boundaries in the region to better constrain the earthquake-rate and seismic-source models. The seismic-source model also models intraslab, Wadati–Benioff zone seismicity in a more realistic way using a continuous slab volume to constrain the finite ruptures of such events. The results suggest a high level of hazard in the coastal areas of the Huon Peninsula and the New Britain – Bougainville region, and a relatively low level of hazard in the southwestern part of mainland PNG. In comparison with the seismic zonation map in the current design standard, it can be noted that the spatial distribution of seismic hazard used for building design does not match the bedrock hazard distribution of this study. In particular, the high seismic hazard of the Huon Peninsula in the revised assessment is not captured in the current building code of PNG. <b>Citation:</b> Ghasemi, H., Cummins, P., Weatherill, G. <i>et al.</i> Seismotectonic model and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Papua New Guinea. <i>Bull Earthquake Eng, </i><b>18</b>, 6571–6605 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-00966-1

The Philippine archipalego is tectonically complex and seismically hazardous, yet few seismic hazard assessments have provided national coverage. This paper presents an updated probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the nation. Active shallow crustal seismicity is modeled by faults and gridded point sources accounting for spatially variable occurrence rates. Subduction interfaces are modelled with faults of complex geometry. Intraslab seismicity is modeled by ruptures filling the slab volume. Source geometries and earthquake rates are derived from seismicity catalogs, geophysical datasets, and historic-to-paleoseismic constraints on fault slip rates. The ground motion characterization includes models designed for global use, with partial constraint by residual analysis. Shallow crustal faulting near metropolitan Manila, Davao, and Cebu dominates shaking hazard. In a few places, peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on rock reaches 1.0 g. The results of this study may assist in calculating the design base shear in the National Structural Code of the Philippines.

<div>The presence of Pliocene marine sediments in the Myponga and Meadows basins within the Mt Lofty Ranges south of Adelaide is testament to over 200&nbsp;m of tectonic uplift within the last 5 Myr (e.g., Sandiford 2003, Clark 2014). The spatiotemporal distribution of uplift amongst the various faults within the range and along the range fronts is poorly understood. Consequently, large uncertainties are associated with estimates of the hazard that the faults pose to proximal communities and infrastructure.</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>We present the preliminary results of a paleoseismic investigation of the southern Willunga Fault, ~40 km south of Adelaide. Trenches were excavated across the fault to examine the relationships between fault planes and sedimentary strata. Evidence is preserved for 3-5 ground-rupturing earthquakes since the Middle to Late Pleistocene, with single event displacements of 0.5 – 1.7 m. Dating of samples will provide age constraints on the timing of these earthquakes. This most recent part of the uplift history may then be related to the longer-term landscape evolution evidenced by the uplifted basins, providing an enhanced understanding of the present-day seismic hazard.</div> This abstract was presented at the Australian & NZ Geomorphology Group (ANZGG) Conference in Alice Springs 26-30 September 2022. https://www.anzgg.org/images/ANZGG_2022_First_circular_Final_V3.pdf

Modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessments rely on earthquake catalogs consistently expressed in terms of moment magnitude, MW. However, MW is still not commonly calculated for small local events by many national networks. The preferred magnitude type calculated for local earthquakes by Australia’s National Earthquake Alerts Centre is local magnitude, ML. For use in seismic hazard forecasts, magnitude conversion equations are often applied to convert ML to MW. Unless these conversions are time-dependent, they commonly assume that ML estimation has been consistent for the observation period. While Australian-specific local magnitude algorithms were developed from the late 1980s and early 1990s, regional, state and university networks did not universally adopt these algorithms, with some authorities continuing to use Californian magnitude algorithms. Californian algorithms are now well-known to overestimate earthquake magnitudes for Australia. Consequently, the national catalogue contains a melange of contributing authorities with their own methods of magnitude estimation. The challenge for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment of Australia was to develop a catalog of earthquakes with consistent local magnitudes, which could then be converted to MW. A method was developed that corrects magnitudes using the difference between the original (inappropriate) magnitude formula and the Australian-specific corrections at a distance determined by the nearest recording station likely to have recorded the earthquake. These corrections have roughly halved the rates of ML 4.5 earthquakes in the Australian catalogue. To address ongoing challenges for catalog improvement, Geoscience Australia is digitising printed and hand-written observations preserved on earthquake data sheets. Once complete, this information will provide a valuable resource that will allow for further interrogation of pre-digital data and enable refinement of historical catalogs. Presented at the 2019 Seismological Society of America Conference, Seattle in the special session on “Seismology BC(d)E: Seismology Before the Current (digital) Era”

An updated National Seismic Hazard Assessment of Australia was released in 2018 (the NSHA18). This assessment leveraged off advances in earthquake-hazard science in Australia and analogue tectonic regions to offer many improvements over its predecessors. The outcomes of the assessment represent a significant shift in the way national-scale seismic hazard is modelled in Australia, and so challenged long-held notions of seismic hazard amongst the Australian seismological and earthquake engineering community. The NSHA18 is one of the most complex national-scale seismic hazard assessments conducted to date, comprising 19 independent seismic source models (contributed by Geoscience Australia and third-party contributors) with three tectonic region types, each represented by at least six ground motion models each. The NSHA18 applied a classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using a weighted logic tree approach, where the model weights were determined through two structured expert elicitation workshops. The response from the participants of these workshops was overwhelmingly positive and the participants appreciated the opportunity to contribute towards the model’s development. Since the model’s publication, Geoscience Australia has been able to reflect on the choices made both through the expert elicitation process and through decisions made by the NSHA18 team. The consequences of those choices on the production of the final seismic hazard model may not have been fully appreciated prior to embarking on the development of the NSHA18, nor during the expert elicitation workshops. The development of the NSHA18 revealed several philosophical challenges in terms of characterising seismic hazard in regions of low seismicity such as Australia. Chief among these are: 1) the inclusion of neotectonic faults, whose rupture characteristics are underexplored and poorly understood; 2) processes for the adjustment and conversion of historical earthquake magnitudes to be consistently expressed in terms of moment magnitude; 3) the relative weighting of different seismic-source classes (i.e., background, regional, smoothed seismicity, etc) for different regions of interest and exceedance probabilities; 4) the assignment of Gutenberg-Richter b-values for most seismic source models based on b-values determined from broad neotectonic domains, and; 5) the characterisation and assignment of ground-motion models used for different tectonic regimes. This paper discusses lessons learned through the development of the NSHA18, identifies successes in the expert elicitation and modelling processes, and explores some of the abovementioned challenges that could be reviewed for future editions of the model. Abstract presented at the 17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (17WCEE )

We present the first paleoseismic investigation of the Hyde Fault, one of a series of north-east striking reverse faults within the Otago range and basin province in southern New Zealand. Surface traces of the fault and associated geomorphology were mapped using a lidar digital elevation model and field investigations. Trenches were excavated at two sites across fault scarps on alluvial fan surfaces. The trenches revealed stratigraphic evidence for four surface-rupturing earthquakes. Optically stimulated luminescence dating constrains the timing of these events to around 47.2 ka (37.5–56.7 ka at 95% confidence), 34.6 ka (24.7–46.4 ka),23.5 ka (19.7–27.3 ka) and 10.5 ka (7.9–13.1 ka). We obtain a mean inter-event time of12.4 kyr (2.3–23.9 kyr at 95% confidence) and the slip rate is estimated to be 0.22 mm/yr (0.15–0.3 mm/yr). We do not find evidence to suggest that earthquake recurrence on the Hyde Fault is episodic, in contrast to other well-studied faults within Otago, suggesting diverse recurrence styles may co-exist in the same fault system. This poses challenges for characterising the seismic hazard potential of faults in the region, particularly when paleoearthquake records are limited to the most recent few events. <b>Citation:</b> Jonathan D. Griffin, Mark W. Stirling, David J.A. Barrell, Ella J. van den Berg, Erin K. Todd, Ross Nicolls & Ningsheng Wang (2022) Paleoseismology of the Hyde Fault, Otago, New Zealand, <i>New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics</i>, 65:4, 613-637, DOI: 10.1080/00288306.2021.1995007

<div>The city of Lae is Papua New Guinea (PNG)’s second largest, and is the home of PNG’s largest port. Here, a convergence rate of ~50 mm/yr between the South Bismarck Plate and the Australian Plate is accommodated across the Ramu-Markham Fault Zone (RMFZ). The active structures of the RMFZ are relatively closely spaced to the west of Lae. However, the fault zone bifurcates immediately west of the Lae urban area, with one strand continuing to the east, and a second strand trending southeast through Lae City and connecting to the Markham Trench within the Huon Gulf. </div><div>The geomorphology of the Lae region relates to the interaction between riverine (and limited marine) deposition and erosion, and range-building over low-angle thrust faults of the RMFZ. Flights of river terraces imply repeated tectonic uplift events; dating of these terraces will constrain the timing of past earthquakes and associated recurrence intervals. Terrace riser heights are typically on the order of 3 m, indicating causative earthquake events of greater than magnitude 7. </div><div>Future work will expose the most recently active fault traces in trenches to assess single event displacements, and extend the study to the RMFZ north of Nadzab Airport. These results will inform a seismic hazard and risk assessment for Lae city and surrounding region.</div> Presented at the 2023 Australian Earthquake Engineering Society (AEES) Conference

<div>COMET (The Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics) uses satellite measurements alongside ground-based observations and geophysical models to study active faults and earthquakes. This talk provides an overview of COMET research products in Türkiye and Central Asia, where interseismic deformation and active faults are directly observable. It also touches on how these products highlight the complexity and difficulty of seismic hazard modelling in Australia.&nbsp;</div><div>Three COMET datasets will be discussed, which each contribute to seismic hazard models. Researchers at COMET have and continue to pioneer INSAR methods including co-seismic interferograms and time-series modelling. For example, the Türkiye (Türkiye) INSAR strain-rate map directly estimates strain-accumulation across faults, while the LICSAR portal and satellite cross-correlation methods are used to quantify co-seismic and post-seismic deformation (including after the devastating 2023 Türkiye-Syria earthquake).&nbsp;</div><div>Similar methods are applied in the Tien Shan, where active faults are identifiable in satellite imagery and elevation data, but rates of activity are uncertain and expensive to obtain through field work. Here COMET and GEM (the Global Earthquake Model) are collaborating to produce block-model informed PSHA inputs using active fault databases, GNSS, and INSAR.&nbsp;</div><div>While these methods are useful in tectonically active regions, they serve to highlight the difficulties facing Australian seismic hazard modelling where similar methods cannot be used due to low (to unobservable) tectonic strain and very long fault recurrence.&nbsp;</div> This paper was presented to the 2023 Australian Earthquake Engineering Conference 23-25 November 2023 (https://aees.org.au/aees-conference-2023/)

Since the publication of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP) hazard map in 1999, Australia has stood out as a region of high earthquake hazard among its stable continental region (SCR) peers. The hazard map underpinning the GSHAP traces its lineage back to the 1990 assessment of Gaull and others. This map was modified through a process of expert judgement in response to significant Australian earthquakes (notably the MW 6.2, 6.3 and 6.6 1988 Tennant Creek sequence and the deadly 1989 MW 5.4 Newcastle earthquake). The modified map, developed in 1991 (McCue and others, 1993), underpins Standards Australia’s structural design actions to this day (AS1170.4–2007). But does this assessment make sense with our current understanding of earthquake processes in SCRs? Geoscience Australia (GA) have embarked to update the seismic hazard model for Australia through the National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18) project. Members of the Australian seismological community were solicited to contribute alternative seismic source models for consideration as inputs to the updated Australian NSHA18. This process not only allowed for the consideration of epistemic uncertainty in the hazard model in a more comprehensive and transparent manner, but also provides the community as a whole ownership of the final model. The 3rd party source models were assessed through an expert elicitation process that weighed the opinion of each expert based on their knowledge and ability to judge relevant uncertainties. In total, 19 independent seismic source models (including regional and background area sources, smoothed seismicity and seismotectonic sources) were considered in the complete source model. To ensure a scientifically rigorous, transparent and quality product, GA also established a Scientific Advisory Panel to provide valuable and ongoing feedback during the development of the NSHA18. The NSHA18 update yields many important advances on its predecessors, including: calculation in a full probabilistic framework using the OpenQuake-engine; consistent expression of earthquake magnitudes in terms of MW; inclusion of epistemic uncertainty through the use of third-party source models; inclusion of a national fault-source model based on the Australian Neotectonic Features database; inclusion of epistemic uncertainty on fault occurrence models and earthquake clustering; and the use of modern ground-motion models. The preliminary NSHA18 design values are significantly lower than those in the current (1991-era) AS1170.4–2007 map at the 10% in 50-year probability level. However, draft values at lower probabilities (i.e., 2% in 50-years) are entirely consistent (in terms of the percentage land mass exceeding different PGA thresholds) with other SCRs with low strain rates (e.g. the central & eastern United States). The large reduction in seismic hazard at the 10% in 50-year probability level has led to much consternation amongst the building code committee in terms of whether the new draft design values will allow enough resilience to seismic loads. This process underscores the challenges in developing national-scale PSHAs in slowly deforming regions, where 10% in 50-year probability level may not adequately capture the maximum considered earthquake ground motions. Consequently, a robust discussion is required is amongst the Australian building code committee (including hazard practitioners) to determine alternative hazard and/or risk objectives that could be considered for future standards. Presented at the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) Workshop 2017, Lenzburg, Switzerland

A shallow MW 5.3 earthquake near Lake Muir in southwest Western Australia on the 16 September 2018 was followed on the 8 November by a co-located MW 5.2 event in the same region. Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar interferograms (InSAR) allowed for the timely identification and mapping of the surface deformation relating to both earthquakes. Field mapping, guided by the InSAR observations, revealed that the first event produced an approximately 3 km-long and up to 0.4 m-high west-facing surface rupture. Five seismic rapid deployment kits (RDKs) were installed in the epicentral region within three days of the 16 September event. These data, telemetered to Geoscience Australia’s National Earthquake Alerts Centre, have enabled the detection and location of more than 750 dependent events up to ML 4.6. Preliminary joint hypocentre relocation of aftershocks using data from RDKs confirms an easterly dipping rupture plane for the first MW 5.3 event. The main shocks were recorded throughout the Australian National Seismic Network, in addition to a local broadband network in the Perth Basin operated by University of Texas at Dallas and the University of Western Australia. These data indicate large long-period ground-motions due to Rg phases and basin amplification. The two main shocks were widely felt within the region, including the Perth metro region (300 km away), with over 2400 online felt reports for the 8 November event. The Lake Muir sequence represents the ninth recorded surface rupturing earthquake in Australia in the past 50 years. All of these events have occurred in the Precambrian cratonic terranes of western and central Australia, in unanticipated locations. Paleoseismic studies of these ruptures found no evidence for regular recurrence of large events on the underlying faults. The events might therefore be considered “one-offs” at timescales of significance to typical probabilistic seismic hazard studies. Presented at 2019 Seismological Society of America Conference, Seattle in the special session on “Central and Eastern North America and Intraplate Regions Worldwide”