Authors / CoAuthors
Gerstenberger, M. | Marzocchi, W. | Allen, T. | Pagani, M.M. | Adams, J. | Danciu, L. | Field, E. | Fujiwara, H. | Luco, N. | Ma, K.-F. | Meletti, C. | Petersen, M.
Abstract
Seismic hazard modelling is a multi-disciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such seismic hazard models consist of a probabilistic framework that models the flow of uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model-components developed from earth science: seismic source models, and ground motion prediction models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the length of the forecasting time-window, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA hereafter) consider forecasting probabilities of ground shaking in time windows of 30 to 50 years. These types of models are the target of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of such a modelling have largely remained unchanged since they were first developed more than 50 years ago, we will review the most recent initiatives which are facing the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in our scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time-independent hazard to forecasts that are time-dependent and specific to the time-period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science-driven models which integrate at best all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the source and ground motion components of the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the hazard model to quantify the consistency and skill of the hazard model. We review the state-of-the-art of the national seismic hazard modeling, and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges.
Product Type
document
eCat Id
129586
Contact for the resource
Point of contact
Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
Canberra
ACT
2601
Australia
Point of contact
Keywords
- theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
-
- EARTH SCIENCESEarthquake Engineering
-
- Earthquake Hazard
-
- Published_External
Publication Date
2020-03-03T04:17:01
Creation Date
2019-06-04T12:35:00
Security Constraints
Legal Constraints
Status
accepted
Purpose
External Publication
Maintenance Information
notPlanned
Topic Category
geoscientificInformation
Series Information
Lineage
Not applicable
Parent Information
Extents
[-54.75, -9.2402, 112.92, 159.11]
Reference System
Spatial Resolution
Service Information
Associations
Source Information