<p>Airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data can be acquired cost-effectively, safely and efficiently over large swathes of land. Inversion of these data for subsurface electrical conductivity provides a regional geological framework for water resources management and minerals exploration down to depths of ~200 m, depending on the geology. However, for legacy reasons, it is not uncommon for multiple deterministic inversion models to exist, with differing details in the subsurface conductivity structure. This multiplicity presents a non-trivial problem for interpreters who wish to make geological sense of these models. In this article, we outline a Bayesian approach, in which various spatial locations were inverted in a probabilistic manner. The resulting probability of conductivity with depth was examined in conjunction with multiple existing deterministic inversion results. The deterministic inversion result that most closely followed the high-credibility regions of the Bayesian posterior probability was then selected for interpretation. Examining credibility with depth also allowed interpreters to examine the ability of the AEM data to resolve the subsurface conductivity structure and base geological interpretation on this knowledge of uncertainty. <p> <b>Citation:</b> Ray, A., Symington, N., Ley-Cooper, Y. and Brodie, R.C., 2020. A quantitative Bayesian approach for selecting a deterministic inversion model. In: Czarnota, K., Roach, I., Abbott, S., Haynes, M., Kositcin, N., Ray, A. and Slatter, E. (eds.) Exploring for the Future: Extended Abstracts, Geoscience Australia, Canberra, 1–4.

<div><strong>Output Type: </strong>Exploring for the Future Extended Abstract</div><div><br></div><div><strong>Short Abstract: </strong>The thickness and thermal structure of continental lithosphere influences the location of seismic and volcanic hazards and is important for predicting long-term evolution of landscapes, sedimentary basins, and the distribution of natural resources. In this project, we have developed new, continental-scale models of the thermomechanical structure of the Australian plate. We begin by compiling an inventory of >15,000 geochemical analyses of peridotitic xenoliths and xenocrysts from across the continent that have been carried up to the surface in volcanic eruptions. We apply thermobarometric techniques to constrain their pressure and temperature of equilibration and perform steady-state heat flow modelling to assess the paleogeotherm beneath these sites. We subsequently use the paleogeotherms as constraints in a Bayesian calibration of anelasticity at seismic frequencies to provide a mapping between seismic velocity and temperature as a function of pressure. We apply this method to several regional-scale seismic tomography models, allowing the temperature to be continuously mapped throughout the Australian lithospheric and asthenospheric mantle. Our models include assessment of uncertainties and can be used to query thermomechanical properties, such as lithospheric thickness, heat flow through the Moho, and the Curie depth.</div><div><br></div><div><strong>Citation: </strong>Hoggard, M.J., Hazzard, J., Sudholz, Z., Richards, F., Duvernay, T., Austermann, J., Jaques, A.L., Yaxley, G., Czarnota, K. & Haynes, M., 2024. Thermochemical models of the Australian plate. In: Czarnota, K. (ed.) Exploring for the Future: Extended Abstracts, Geoscience Australia, Canberra. https://doi.org/10.26186/149411</div>

<div>Lithospheric structure and composition have direct relevance for our understanding of mineral prospectivity. Aspects of the lithosphere can be imaged using geophysical inversion or analysed from exhumed samples at the surface of the Earth, but it is a challenge to ensure consistency between competing models and datasets. The LitMod platform provides a probabilistic inversion framework that uses geology as the fabric to unify multiple geophysical techniques and incorporates a priori geochemical information. Here, we present results from the application of LitMod to the Australian continent. The rasters summarise the results and performance of a Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling from the posterior model space. Release FR23 is developed using primary-mode Rayleigh phase velocity grids adapted from Fishwick & Rawlinson (2012).</div><div><br></div><div>Geoscience Australia's Exploring for the Future program provides precompetitive information to inform decision-making by government, community and industry on the sustainable development of Australia's mineral, energy and groundwater resources. By gathering, analysing and interpreting new and existing precompetitive geoscience data and knowledge, we are building a national picture of Australia's geology and resource potential. This leads to a strong economy, resilient society and sustainable environment for the benefit of all Australians. This includes supporting Australia's transition to a low emissions economy, strong resources and agriculture sectors, and economic opportunities and social benefits for Australia's regional and remote communities. The Exploring for the Future program, which commenced in 2016, is an eight year, $225m investment by the Australian Government.</div>

<div>Lithospheric structure and composition have direct relevance for our understanding of mineral prospectivity. Aspects of the lithosphere can be imaged using geophysical inversion or analysed from exhumed samples at the surface of the Earth, but it is a challenge to ensure consistency between competing models and datasets. The LitMod platform provides a probabilistic inversion framework that uses geology as the fabric to unify multiple geophysical techniques and incorporates a priori geochemical information. Here, we present results from the application of LitMod to the Australian continent. The rasters summarise the results and performance of a Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling from the posterior model space. Release KY22 is developed using the primary-mode Rayleigh phase velocity grids of Yoshizawa (2014).</div><div><br></div><div>Geoscience Australia's Exploring for the Future program provides precompetitive information to inform decision-making by government, community and industry on the sustainable development of Australia's mineral, energy and groundwater resources. By gathering, analysing and interpreting new and existing precompetitive geoscience data and knowledge, we are building a national picture of Australia's geology and resource potential. This leads to a strong economy, resilient society and sustainable environment for the benefit of all Australians. This includes supporting Australia's transition to a low emissions economy, strong resources and agriculture sectors, and economic opportunities and social benefits for Australia's regional and remote communities. The Exploring for the Future program, which commenced in 2016, is an eight year, $225m investment by the Australian Government.</div>

We have developed a Bayesian inference algorithm and released open-source code for the 1D inversion of audio-frequency magnetotelluric data. The algorithm uses trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo to solve for a probabilistic resistivity-depth model. The inversion employs multiple Markov chains in parallel to generate an ensemble of millions of resistivity models that adequately fit the data given the assigned noise levels. The trans-dimensional aspect of the inversion means that the number of layers in the resistivity model is solved for rather than being predetermined. The inversion scheme favours a parsimonious solution, and the acceptance criterion ratio is theoretically derived such that the Markov chain will eventually converge to an ensemble that is a good approximation of the posterior probability density (PPD). Once the ensemble of models is generated, its statistics are analysed to assess the PPD and to quantify model uncertainties. This approach gives a thorough exploration of model space and a more robust estimation of uncertainty than deterministic methods allow. We demonstrate the application of the method to cover thickness estimation for a number of regional drilling programs. Comparison with borehole results demonstrates that the method is capable of identifying major stratigraphic structures with resistivity contrasts. Our results have assisted with drill site targeting, and have helped to reduce the uncertainty and risk associated with intersecting targeted stratigraphic units in covered terrains. Interpretation of the audio-frequency magnetotelluric data has also improved our understanding of the distribution and geometries of sedimentary basins undercover. From an exploration perspective, mapping sedimentary basins and covered near-surface geological features supports the effective search for mineral deposits in greenfield areas. <b>Citation: </b> Wenping Jiang, Ross C. Brodie, Jingming Duan, Ian Roach, Neil Symington, Anandaroop Ray, James Goodwin, Probabilistic inversion of audio-frequency magnetotelluric data and application to cover thickness estimation for mineral exploration in Australia, <i>Journal of Applied Geophysics</i>, Volume 208, 2023, 104869, ISSN 0926-9851, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jappgeo.2022.104869.