Authors / CoAuthors
Bear-Crozier, A.N. | Miller, V. | Newey, V. | Horspool, N. | Weber, R.
Abstract
Significant advances have been made in recent years in probabilistic analysis of geological hazards. Analyses of this kind are concerned with producing estimates of the probability of occurrence of a hazard metric at a site given the location, magnitude, and frequency of hazardous events around that site. Significant advancements have been made towards the probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazard leading to the development of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). PSHA is a method for assessing and expressing the probability of earthquake hazard at a site of interest in terms of probability of exceeding certain ground motion intensities. Probabilistic methods for assessing volcanic ash hazard at a regional-scale are less advanced. The methodology presented here, Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA), modifies the four-step procedure of PSHA for volcanic ash and applies it at a regional-scale. PVAHA considers a magnitude-frequency distribution of eruptions and associated volcanic ash load attenuation relationships and integrates across all possible events to arrive at an annual exceedance probability for each site across a region of interest. PVAHA can be aggregated to generate maps that visually convey the expected volcanic ash hazard for sites across the region at return periods of interest, or disaggregated to determine the causal factors which dominate volcanic ash hazard at individual sites. PVAHA results can be used to identify priority areas for more detailed, local scale ash dispersal modeling that can be used to inform disaster risk reduction efforts.
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document
eCat Id
81611
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Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
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- GA PublicationRecord
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Volcanology
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- Published_External
Publication Date
2014-01-01T00:00:00
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geoscientificInformation
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Record 2014/036
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