This report was prepared by Geoscience Australia for the Bushfire CRC. It is intended that this report be used as part of the background material for the reports prepared for the Royal Commission into the Victorian Bushfires 2009. This report contains a demographic analysis of some of the areas directly affected by the bushfires. The areas included in this report (with alternative fire names in brackets) are: Churchill (Churchill - Jeeralang) Bunyip (Bunyip SP - Bunyip Ridge Trk) Bendigo (Mainden Gully/Eaglehawk - Bracewell St) Kilmore (Kilmore East - Murrindindi Complex South) Murrindindi/Yea (Kilmore East - Murrindindi Complex North) Beechworth Horsham Narre Warren

This atlas-style report presents a spatial demographic analysis for Victoria including measures of population vulnerability. It updates the 2016 report which relied on data from the ABS 2011 census of population and housing. This version uses information from the 2016 census along with other updated population data. Key findings include: • Fire is a natural part of the Australian landscape but its incidence and impact can be increased by the presence of people. • Measures of vulnerability are indicative. They do not predict how a particular individual will respond to a specific event. Nevertheless, research studies have shown that some characteristics are associated with an individual’s level of vulnerability before, during, or after a disaster. • Population vulnerabilities have a geographical distribution. Some communities will have a greater measure of vulnerability than others, and some locations may display multiple types of vulnerability. • The vulnerability level of a household will be determined by its weakest rather than its strongest member. KEY FINDINGS • Population characteristics change over time. Hence patterns of vulnerability can also change over time. Sometimes changing characteristics occur because people move into or out of a community. Other changes occur within a population. Children may be born, increasing the number of infants in a community, or people may age in place, causing an increse in numbers of older people. • In Melbourne’s fringe and peri-urban areas, this pattern of ageing in place is likely to cause a significant increase in numbers of older people. • Most population measures are based on where people usually live or work, yet people can be highly mobile. • People may have more than one residence. This can include: holiday homes; weekenders; or for regional populations, a townhouse in the city. • Population mobility presents particular challenges for risk assessment and emergency management. Towns may vary in population size by a factor of four or five during particular seasons of the year. • Popular visitor and holiday locations such as the Dandenong Ranges and Great Ocean Road have particularly high fire risk. Planning for fire therefore requires an understanding of both permanent and part-time populations.