Authors / CoAuthors
Waters, D. | Cechet, R.P. | Arthur, C.
Abstract
The paper presents a methodology developed at Geoscience Australia to analyse the impact of tropical cyclone (TC) hazard on communities in northern Australia. This work was carried out for the Garnaut Climate Change Review commissioned by Australia's State and Territory Governments. The Review examined the impacts of, and possible policy responses to, climate change on the Australian economy The study focuses on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of the wind hazard. This sets a thermodynamic, theoretical upper limit for the distribution of TC intensities given a vertical temperature and humidity profile and given location. Storm surge impacts were developed using a simple relationship between TC intensity and storm surge height and adopting the IPCC global mid-point sea-level rise predictions. We consider the impact on residential building stock of severe wind and storm surge hazards associated with a number of IPCC climate change scenarios. Changes in residential building stock, for over 500 coastal statistical local areas (SLA's) from Southeast Queensland anticlockwise to Perth, were forecast using Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections through to 2100. A Probable Maximum Loss (PML) curve for each study region was obtained. The average annual cost to the region due to exposure to tropical cyclones across a 5000 year period or 'annualised losses' were evaluated for each study region. Expressing the annualised loss as a percentage of total reconstruction demonstrates the intensity of the risk to the studied community not so evident in simple dollar loss figures. We show the projected population, especially the drift to coastal locations in Queensland, is significant in determining the damage associated with possible future cyclone threat.
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document
eCat Id
69639
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- risk assessment
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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2010-01-01T00:00:00
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