Authors / CoAuthors
Bear-Crozier, A.N. | Miller, V. | Newey, V. | Horspool, N. | Weber, R.
Abstract
Major advances have been made in recent years in probabilistic analysis of geological hazards. Analyses of this kind are concerned with producing estimates of the probability of occurrence of a hazard at a site given the location, severity and historical occurrence of hazardous events around that site. Significant developments have been made towards the probabilistic assessment in the field of earthquake hazard leading to the development of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). PSHA is a widely utilised method for assessing and expressing the probability of earthquake hazard at a site of interest in terms of maximum credible intensity for return periods of interest. Probabilistic methods for assessing volcanic ash hazard at a regional scale in this way are comparatively less advanced. A methodology was developed at Geoscience Australia which modifies the four-step procedure of PSHA for volcanic ash at a regional scale, named Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA). PVAHA considers a multitude of volcanic eruption occurrences and associated volcanic ash load attenuation relationships (developed through volcanic ash dispersal modeling) and integrates across all possible events to arrive at an annual exceedance probability for each site across a region of interest. PVAHA can be aggregated to generate geospatially-referenced maps that visually convey the expected volcanic ash hazard for sites across the region at return periods of interest, or disaggregated to determine the causal factors which dominate volcanic ash hazard at individual sites. This has important implications for identifying priority areas, from a multitude of volcanic events, for more detailed, local scale ash dispersal modeling that can be used to inform disaster risk reduction efforts. Development of the PVAHA methodology is presented here using examples from Indonesia and the benefits and limitations of the technique are discussed.
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nonGeographicDataset
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79252
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- External PublicationAbstract
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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2014-01-01T00:00:00
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