A statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment
We present the formulation of an open-source, statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs) for use in hazard and risk assessment applications. The model derives statistical relations for TC behaviour (genesis rate and location, intensity, speed and direction of translation) from best-track datasets, then uses these relations to create a synthetic catalogue based on stochastic sampling, representing many thousands of years of activity. A parametric wind field, based on radial profiles and boundary layer models, is applied to each event in the catalogue that is then used to fit extreme-value distributions for evaluation of return period wind speeds. We demonstrate the capability of the model to replicate observed behaviour of TCs, including coastal landfall rates which are of significant importance for risk assessments.
<b>Citation: </b>Arthur, W. C.: A statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 893–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-893-2021, 2021.
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Identification info
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- 2012-01-01T00:00:00
- Date (Publication)
- 2024-10-15T01:54:52
- Citation identifier
- Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/74266
- Cited responsible party
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Author Arthur, W.C.
1 Publisher Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
External Contact
- Name
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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
- Issue identification
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Volume 21, Issue 3 2021
- Page
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893-916
- Point of contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Voice Point of contact Kendall, D.
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- Geoscientific information
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Product data repository: Various Formats
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Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes
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EARTH SCIENCES
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- Keywords
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statistical–parametric model
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- Keywords
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tropical cyclones - TCs
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hazard and risk assessment
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- Keywords
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wind field
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- Keywords
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Published_External
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
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CC-BY
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4.0
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© Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia) 2020
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
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- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Distributor Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
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- Title
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
- Edition date
- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
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Place and Communities Internal Contact Point of contact Kendall, D.
Place and Communities Internal Contact
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Journal Article
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Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with
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- Date info (Revision)
- 2018-04-10T23:10:52
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Metadata standard
- Title
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AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
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ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
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ISO 19115-3
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Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014
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Version 2.0, September 2018
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