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Earthquake forecasting from paleoseismic records

<div>Forecasting large earthquakes along active faults is of critical importance for seismic hazard assessment. Statistical models of recurrence intervals based on compilations of paleoseismic data provide a forecasting tool. Here we compare five models and use Bayesian model-averaging to produce time-dependent, probabilistic forecasts of large earthquakes along 93 fault segments worldwide. This approach allows better use of the measurement errors associated with paleoseismic records and accounts for the uncertainty around model choice. Our results indicate that although the majority of fault segments (65/93) in the catalogue favour a single best model, 28 benefit from a model-averaging approach. We provide earthquake rupture probabilities for the next 50 years and forecast the occurrence times of the next rupture for all the fault segments. Our findings suggest that there is no universal model for large earthquake recurrence, and an ensemble forecasting approach is desirable when dealing with paleoseismic records with few data points and large measurement errors.


<b>Citation:</b> Wang, T., Griffin, J.D., Brenna, M. et al. Earthquake forecasting from paleoseismic records. <i>Nat Commun</i><b> 15</b>, 1944 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46258-z

Simple

Identification info

Date (Creation)
2023-07-20T08:00:00
Date (Publication)
2024-08-02T04:41:30
Citation identifier
Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/148627

Cited responsible party
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Author

Wang, T.

External Contact
Author

Griffin, J.

Internal Contact
Author

Brenna, M.

External Contact
Author

Fletcher, D.

External Contact
Author

Zeng, J.

External Contact
Author

Stirling, M.W.

External Contact
Author

Dillingham, P.

External Contact
Author

Kang, J.

External Contact
Publisher

Springer Nature

External Contact
Name

Nature Communications

Issue identification

Volume 15, Issue 1944 (2024)

Purpose

Scientific paper published in Nature Communications

Status
Completed
Point of contact
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Resource provider

Place and Communities Division

External Contact
Point of contact

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice
Point of contact

Griffin, J.

Internal Contact
Spatial representation type
Topic category
  • Geoscientific information

Extent

N
S
E
W


Maintenance and update frequency
Not planned

Resource format

Title

Product data repository: Various Formats

Website

Data Store directory containing the digital product files

Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes

Keywords
  • earthquake hazard

Keywords
  • statistics

Keywords
  • forecasting

theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
  • Natural Hazards

Keywords
  • Published_External

Resource constraints

Title

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence

Alternate title

CC-BY

Edition

4.0

Website

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Addressee
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
User

Any

Access constraints
License
Use constraints
License
Other constraints

© The Author(s) 2024

Resource constraints

Title

Australian Government Security Classification System

Edition date
2018-11-01T00:00:00
Website

https://www.protectivesecurity.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx

Classification
Unclassified
Classification system

Australian Government Security Classification System

Language
English
Character encoding
UTF8

Distribution Information

Distributor contact
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Distributor

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice facsimile
OnLine resource

Link to Journal

Link to Journal

Distribution format

Resource lineage

Statement

<div>This is a scientific paper published in Nature Communications.</div><div> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46258-z </div>

Metadata constraints

Title

Australian Government Security Classification System

Edition date
2018-11-01T00:00:00
Website

https://www.protectivesecurity.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx

Classification
Unclassified

Metadata

Metadata identifier
urn:uuid/26d7bb86-bb92-4a21-9ed7-a1efbbe14ad5

Title

GeoNetwork UUID

Language
English
Character encoding
UTF8
Contact
Role Organisation / Individual Name Details
Point of contact

Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)

Voice
Point of contact

Griffin, J.

Internal Contact

Type of resource

Resource scope
Document
Name

Journal Article / Conference Paper

Alternative metadata reference

Title

Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with

uuid

Citation identifier
eCatId/148627

Metadata linkage

https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/static/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/26d7bb86-bb92-4a21-9ed7-a1efbbe14ad5

Metadata linkage

https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/26d7bb86-bb92-4a21-9ed7-a1efbbe14ad5

Metadata linkage

https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/accessDenied.jsp/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/26d7bb86-bb92-4a21-9ed7-a1efbbe14ad5

Date info (Creation)
2024-08-02T04:24:23
Date info (Revision)
2024-08-02T04:24:23

Metadata standard

Title

AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-1:2014

Metadata standard

Title

ISO 19115-3

Title

Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014

Edition

Version 2.0, September 2018

Citation identifier
http://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551

 
 

Spatial extent

N
S
E
W


Keywords

theme.ANZRC Fields of Research.rdf
Natural Hazards

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