Data used to generate the National Seismic Hazard Assessments (NSHA). Data includes: original and modified earthquake catalogues, earthquake rate models, probabilistic seismic hazard outputs. The most recent assessment was completed in 2018 and can be viewed on Geoscience Australia's <a href="http://www.ga.gov.au/about/projects/safety/nsha">National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA) Internet Page</a> <b>Value: </b> Data used to generate the NSHA <b>Scope: </b>Continental scale

Geoscience Australia, together with contributors from the wider Australian seismology community, has produced a National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18) that is intended as an update to the 2012 National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM12; Burbidge, 2012; Leonard et al., 2013). This Geoscience Australia Record provides an overview of the development of the NSHA18. Time-independent, mean seismic design values are calculated on Standards Australia’s AS1170.4 Soil Class Be (at VS30=760 m/s) for the horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and for the geometric mean of the spectral accelerations, Sa(T), for T = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 s over a 15-km national grid spacing. Hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra are also calculated for key localities. Maps of PGA, in addition to Sa(0.2 s) and Sa(1.0 s) and for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (Figure A). Additional maps and seismic hazard products are provided in a separate Geoscience Australia Record (Allen, 2018). The NSHA18 update yields many important advances over its predecessors, including: - the calculation in a full probabilistic framework (Cornell, 1968) using the Global Earthquake Model Foundation’s OpenQuake-engine (Pagani et al., 2014); - the consistent expression of earthquake magnitudes in terms of moment magnitude, MW; - inclusion of a national fault-source model based on the Australian Neotectonic Features database (Clark et al., 2016); - the inclusion of epistemic (i.e. modelling) uncertainty: - through the use of multiple alternative source models; - on magnitude-recurrence distributions; - fault recurrence and clustering models; - on maximum earthquake magnitudes for both fault and area sources through an expert elicitation workshop; and - the use of modern ground-motion models, capturing the epistemic uncertainty on ground motion through an expert elicitation workshop.

The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18) aims to provide the most up-to-date and comprehensive understanding of seismic hazard in Australia. As such, NSHA18 includes a range of alternative models for characterising seismic sources and ground motions proposed by members of the Australia earthquake hazard community. The final hazard assessment is a weighted combination of alternative models. This report describes the use of a structured expert elicitation methodology (the ‘Classical Model’) to weight the alternative models and presents the complete results of this process. Seismic hazard assessments are inherently uncertain due to the long return periods of damaging earthquakes relative to the time period of human observation. This is especially the case for low-seismicity regions such as Australia. Despite this uncertainty, there is a demand for estimates of seismic hazard to underpin a range of decision making aimed at reducing the impacts of earthquakes to society. In the face of uncertainty, experts will propose alternative models for the distribution of earthquake occurrence in space, time and magnitude (i.e. seismic source characterisation), and how ground shaking is propagated through the crust (i.e. ground motion characterisation). In most cases, there is insufficient data to independently and quantitatively determine a ‘best’ model. Therefore it is unreasonable to expect, or force, experts to agree on a single consensus model. Instead, seismic hazard assessments should capture the variability in expert opinion, while allowing that not all experts are equally adept. Logic trees, with branches representing mutually exclusive models weighted by expert opinion, can be used to model this uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment. The resulting hazard assessment thereby captures the range of plausible uncertainty given current knowledge of earthquake occurrence in Australia. For the NSHA18, experts were invited to contribute peer-reviewed seismic source models for consideration, resulting in 16 seismic source models being proposed. Each of these models requires values to be assigned to uncertain parameters such as the maximum magnitude earthquake expected. Similarly, up to 20 published ground motion models were identified as being appropriate for characterising ground motions for different tectonic regions in Australia. To weight these models, 17 experts in seismic hazard assessment, representative of the collective expertise of the Australian earthquake hazard community, were invited to two workshops held at Geoscience Australia in March 2017. At these workshops, the experts each assigned weights to alternative models representing their degree of belief that a particular model is the ‘true’ model. The experts were calibrated through a series of questions that tested their knowledge of the subject and ability to assess the limits to their knowledge. These workshops resulted in calibrated weights used to parameterise the final seismic source model and ground motion model logic trees for NSHA18. Through use of a structured expert elicitation methodology these weights have been determined in a transparent and reproducible manner drawing on the full depth of expertise and experience within the Australia earthquake hazard community. Such methodologies have application to a range of uncertain problems beyond the case of seismic hazard assessment presented here.

This Geoscience Australia Record contains technical data and input files that, when used with the Global Earthquake Model’s (GEM’s) OpenQuake-engine probabilistic seismic hazard analysis software (Pagani et al., 2014), will enable end users to explore and reproduce the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18) of Australia (Allen et al., 2018a). This report describes the NSHA18 input data only and does not discuss the scientific rationale behind the model development. These details are provided in Allen et al. (2018a) and references therein.

The 10% in 50 year seismic hazard map is the key output from the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment for Australia (NSHA18) as required for consideration by the Standards Australia earthquake loading committee AS1170.4

<div>This Geoscience Australia Record contains technical data and input files that, when used with the Global Earthquake Model’s (GEM’s) <em>OpenQuake-engine</em> probabilistic seismic hazard analysis software (Pagani<em> et al.</em>, 2023), will enable end users to explore and reproduce the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA23) of Australia (Allen<em> et al.</em>, 2023b). Output data, as calculated by Geoscience Australia using Version 3.16.1 of the <em>OpenQuake-engine</em>, are also provided. This report describes the NSHA23 input and output data only and does not discuss the scientific rationale behind the model development or the development of the NSHA23 earthquake catalogue. These details are provided in Allen<em> et al.</em> (2023b) and (Allen<em> et al.</em>, 2024), and respective references therein. The NSHA23 provides estimates of seismic hazard for the six Australian states and two mainland territories. However, it does not provide updated hazard factors for Australia’s Antarctic and other offshore territories (e.g., Christmas Island, Cocos Island, Heard Island, Lord Howe Island, Macquarie Island and Norfolk Island).</div>

Geoscience Australia, together with contributors from the wider Australian seismology community, has produced a National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18) that is intended as an update to the 2012 National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM12; Burbidge, 2012; Leonard et al., 2013). This Geoscience Australia Record provides an overview of the development of the NSHA18. Time-independent, mean seismic design values are calculated on Standards Australia’s AS1170.4 Soil Class Be (at VS30=760 m/s) for the horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and for the geometric mean of the spectral accelerations, Sa(T), for T = 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 s over a 15-km national grid spacing. Hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra are also calculated for key localities. Maps of PGA, in addition to Sa(0.2 s) and Sa(1.0 s) and for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (Figure A). Additional maps and seismic hazard products are provided in a separate Geoscience Australia Record (Allen, 2018). The NSHA18 update yields many important advances over its predecessors, including: - the calculation in a full probabilistic framework (Cornell, 1968) using the Global Earthquake Model Foundation’s OpenQuake-engine (Pagani et al., 2014); - the consistent expression of earthquake magnitudes in terms of moment magnitude, MW; - inclusion of a national fault-source model based on the Australian Neotectonic Features database (Clark et al., 2016); - the inclusion of epistemic (i.e. modelling) uncertainty: - through the use of multiple alternative source models; - on magnitude-recurrence distributions; - fault recurrence and clustering models; - on maximum earthquake magnitudes for both fault and area sources through an expert elicitation workshop; and - the use of modern ground-motion models, capturing the epistemic uncertainty on ground motion through an expert elicitation workshop.

This data is the output from the model assessment for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment for Australia (NSHA18) product (refer eCat 123020 for overview of product). This data is provided in multiple formats and is supported by accompanying maps to illustrate the seismic hazard (refer description of the model output at eCat 123028). The data is the output from the modelling process described in eCat 123049 which is in turn informed by GA Records relating to the expert elicitation workshop (eCat 123027), ground motion model selection (ecat 123034), earthquake epicentre catalogue (eCat 123041) and earthquake sources (eCat 123048).

<div>Geoscience Australia, together with contributions from the wider Australian seismology community, have produced the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA23), intended for inclusion into the 2024 revision of Standards Australia’s Structural design actions, part 4: Earthquake actions in Australia, AS1170.4–2007 (Standards Australia, 2018). This Standard is prepared by sub-committee BD-006-11, General Design Requirements and Loading on Structures of Standards Australia. </div><div>This Geoscience Australia Record provides the technical overview for the development of the NSHA23. Time-independent, ground-motion values with the mean value of the target exceedance probability are calculated for the geometric mean of the horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations, <em>Sa</em> (<em>T</em>), for eleven oscillator periods <em>T</em>&nbsp;= 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.7, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 s. Maps illustrating the spatial distribution of ground-motion hazard are calculated using a 12.5-km national grid spacing (over 100,000 sites). Hazard curves and uniform-hazard spectra are also calculated for key localities. Maps of PGA, in addition to <em>Sa </em>(0.2&nbsp;s) and <em>Sa </em>(1.0&nbsp;s) are presented for a 10% (Figure 1‑1) and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. These exceedance probabilities refer to 1/475 and 1/2475 annual exceedance probability (AEP), respectively. Ground-motion values with a given probability of exceedance in the investigation time are calculated for each grid point on a national scale, while uniform-hazard spectra (UHS) have been calculated specifically for AS1170.4 city localities and additional sites for two probability levels: 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. </div><div>The NSHA23 has used the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA18) as a foundation and has built upon the previous assessment through several key updates and revisions to model components. Whilst the NSHA23 was intended to be a modest update to the 2018 model, there was considerable effort placed into updating several model components, including: 1) updating and extending the earthquake catalogue (Allen<em> et al.</em>, in press); 2) updating the fault-source model (Clark, 2023; Allen<em> et al.</em>, 2024, in press); 3) the augmentation of the Australian Ground-Motion Database (Ghasemi and Allen, 2021, 2023) with new and legacy data for ground-motion model (GMM) evaluation and weighting; and 4) review and revision of the seismic-source and ground-motion characterisations model logic trees through expert elicitation. </div><div>For the first time, the NSHA23 calculates hazard considering different site classes, assuming varying time-averaged shear-wave velocities in the upper 30 m of the crust (i.e., <em>VS</em>30): 150, 270, 450, 760 and 1,100 m/s. It is important to note that many localities across Australia lie within sedimentary basins and sites may be subject to significant ground-motion amplification owing to basin resonance effects. Whilst the calculation of hazard for different site conditions is a significant advance, there is no explicit modelling of basin resonance effects. Consequently, users of the NSHA23 should use caution and ensure they are aware of any local site conditions that may modify the earthquake ground motions that have been calculated through this assessment. Further work is required to fully characterise the probabilistic seismic site response of major Australian urban centres that lie within deep sedimentary basins (e.g., Adelaide and Perth) where earthquake ground motions could be significantly modified by local geological structure. </div><div>Sensitivity tests demonstrate that there are minor changes in the mean PGA hazard (mostly decreases) relative to the NSHA18 due to the NSHA23 seismic-source characterisation model (SSCM). However, these decreases due to the SSCM are more than offset due to changes in the ground-motion characterisation model (GMCM), resulting in a net increase in hazard over the range of exceedance probabilities considered. The most significant changes in hazard occurred in the City of Darwin, Northern Territory. This change in hazard is almost exclusively due to the use of the new Allen (2022) GMM, which forecasts significantly higher short-period ground motions than the GMMs which contributed to the NSHA18 GMCM. Considering all localities, the mean (plus and minus one standard deviation) percentage increase for the NSHA23 relative to the NSHA18 for mean PGA at the 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years is 25.8% ± 33.5%.&nbsp;Whilst this may seem like a rather significant change, when the hazard difference is considered for the same probability level across all sites, the mean difference in PGA hazard is only 0.008 ± 0.011 g.</div>

This dataset is a key input to the development of the Australian National Seismic Hazard Assessment for 2018 (NSHA18).