Authors / CoAuthors
Cechet, R.P. | Arthur, W.C. | Sanabria, L.A. | Thomas, C.M. | Wehner, M.
Abstract
Severe wind damage accounts for about 40 percent of the total building damage observed in Australia during the 20th century. Climate change has the potential to significantly affect severe wind hazard and the resulting level of loss. W report on a nationally consistent assessment of severe wind hazard across the Australian continent, and also severe wind risk to residential houses (quantified in terms of annualised loss). A computational framework has been developed to quantify both the wind hazard and risk due to severe winds, based on innovative modeling techniques and application of the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS). A combination of tropical cyclone, synoptic and thunderstorm wind hazard estimates is used to provide a revised estimate of the severe wind hazard across Australia. The hazard modeling utilises both 'current climate' information and also simulations forced by IPCC SRES climate change scenarios (employed to estimate how the wind hazard may be influenced by climate change). Our analysis has identified regions where the design wind speed depicted in the Australian/New Zealand Wind Loading Standard (AS/NZS 1170.2, 2010) is lower than 'new' hazard analysis. In considering future climate scenarios, four case study regions are used to illustrate when the wind loading standard may be inadequate, and where retrofitting is indicated as a viable adaptation option at either the present or at a specified future time. The comparison of current and projected future risk, currently only considers direct costs (structural damage to houses) associated with severe wind hazard. A broader assessment methodology is discussed.
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document
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71394
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- External Publication
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- risk assessment
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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2011-01-01T00:00:00
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