Authors / CoAuthors
Griffin, J.D. | Arthur, W.C. | Cechet, R.P.
Abstract
A statistical downscaling approach is used to compare changes in environmental indicators of tropical cyclone characteristics between three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios in the Australian region, using results from models used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Maximum potential intensity is shown to change linearly with global mean temperature, independent of emissions scenario, with a 2-3% increase per degree of global warming in Australia's tropical regions. Changes in vertical wind shear are more ambiguous, however the magnitude of changes in tropical cyclone genesis regions is small. The genesis potential index increases significantly in all scenarios, and appears to be driven by the increase in MPI. Results for Australia's tropical regions suggest that tropical cyclone intensity is highly likely to increase with global warming, while results for frequency are suggestive of a frequency increase, but less conclusive. Further work to assess frequency changes will allow quantification of changes in tropical cyclone hazard under climate change.
Product Type
nonGeographicDataset
eCat Id
68309
Contact for the resource
Custodian
Point of contact
Cnr Jerrabomberra Ave and Hindmarsh Dr GPO Box 378
Canberra
ACT
2601
Australia
Keywords
-
- External PublicationScientific Journal Paper
- ( Theme )
-
- wind
- ( Theme )
-
- climate
- ( Theme )
-
- geohazards
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
-
- Earth Sciences
-
- Published_Internal
Publication Date
2008-01-01T00:00:00
Creation Date
Security Constraints
Legal Constraints
Status
Purpose
Maintenance Information
unknown
Topic Category
geoscientificInformation
Series Information
Lineage
Unknown
Parent Information
Extents
Reference System
Spatial Resolution
Service Information
Associations
Downloads and Links
Source Information
Source data not available.