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Abstract
Wind risk assessment forms part of Geoscience Australia's assessments of the potential losses to Australian communities from a range of sudden impact natural hazards. These assessments aim to define the economic and social threat posed by a range of rapid onset hazards through a combined study of natural hazard research methods and risk assessment models. This presentation provides an overview of the progress towards a national scale peak wind gust risk assessment for Australia. At present, these assessments cover residential development in both urban and adjacent rural regions of all Australian capital cities and some large rural centres. The assessment will be refined for both an improved understanding of Australian peak wind gusts and also for climate change influences on peak wind gusts. The methodology employed to evaluate the risk associated with peak wind gusts in Australian cities is discussed, including a concerted attempt to better define regional hazard variability by utilising the results of a 1951-2000 period regional climate model downscaling exercise forced by NCEP reanalyses. The estimation of the regional return period wind speeds (or return levels) was derived by utilising a statistical model (extreme value distributions) to determine the regional-scale hazard. For an engineering application, the local wind effects on return period regional wind speeds were determined by assessing by combining the regional hazard with the local effect of terrain at the structure height of interest, the shielding effect of up-wind buildings and the effect of topography. Limitations with the present methodology are also examined. In particular, these results are thought to be useful as a guide to relative risk in the Australian region; however the absolute values are likely to be a gross overestimate. The utilisation of an 'event-based' hazard dataset is discussed and illustrated by using case studies
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nonGeographicDataset
eCat Id
67251
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Keywords
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- External PublicationConference Paper
- ( Theme )
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- wind
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
Publication Date
2008-01-01T00:00:00
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geoscientificInformation
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