Evaluation of severe wind hazard from tropical cyclones - current and future climate simulations : Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
In June 2012 Geoscience Australia was commissioned by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) to undertake detailed wind hazard assessments for 14 Pacific Island countries and East Timor as part of the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program. PACCSAP program follows on from work Geoscience Australia did for the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) looking at CMIP3 generation of climate models. The objective of this study is to improve scientific knowledge by examining past climate trends and variability to provide regional and national climate projections. This document presents results from current and future climate projections of severe wind hazard from tropical cyclones for the 15 PACCSAP partner countries describing the data and methods used for the analysis.
The severe wind hazard was estimated for current (1981 to 2000) and future (2081 to 2100) climate scenarios. Tropical-cyclone like vortices from climate simulations conducted by CSIRO using six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models (BCC-CSM1.1, NorESM1-M, CSIRO-Mk3.6, IPSL-CM5A, MRI-CGM3 and GFDL-ESM2M) as well as the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship were used as input to the Geoscience Australia's Tropical Cyclone Risk Model to generate return period wind speeds for the 15 PACCSAP partner countries. The Tropical Cyclone Risk Model is a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclone behaviour, enabling users to generate synthetic records of tropical cyclones representing many thousands of years of activity.
The 500-year return period wind speed is analysed and discussed into more details in this report, since it is used as a benchmark for the design loads on residential buildings. Results indicate that there is not a consistent spatial trend for the changes in 500-year cyclonic wind speed return period when CMIP5 models are compared individually. BCC-CSM1M and IPSL-CM5A presented an increase in the annual TC frequency for East Timor, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere. On the other hand, NorESM1M showed a decrease in the annual TC frequency for the same areas. The other three models showed a mixed of increase and decrease in their annual TC frequency. When CMIP5 models were analysed by partner county capitals for the 500-year cyclonic wind speed return period, IPSL-CM5A and GFDL-ESM2M models presented an increase in the cyclonic wind speed intensity for almost all capitals analysed with exception of Funafuti (GFDL-ESM2M), which presented a decrease of 0.7% and Honiara (IPSL-CM5A) with a decrease of 1.6%.
The tropical cyclone annual frequency ensemble mean indicates an increase in the tropical cyclone frequency within all three regions considered in this study. When looking at individual capitals, a slight increase in the 500-year return period cyclonic wind speed ensemble mean varying between 0.8% (Port Vila) to 9.1% (Majuro) is noticed. A decline around 2.4% on average in the 500-year return period cyclonic wind speed ensemble mean is observed in Dili, Suva, Nukualofa and Ngerulmud. The ensemble spatial relative change did not show any particular consistency for the 500-year cyclonic wind speed. Areas where Marshall Islands and Niue are located presented an increase in the 500-year cyclonic wind speed while a decrease is observed in areas around South of Vanuatu, East of Solomon Islands, South of Fiji and some areas in Tonga.
The information from the evaluation of severe wind hazard from tropical cyclones, together with other PACCSAP program outputs, will be used to build partner country capacity to effectively adapt and plan for the future and overcome challenges from climate change.
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Identification info
- Date (Publication)
- 2014-01-01T00:00:00
- Citation identifier
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Geoscience Australia Persistent Identifier/https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/79681
- Citation identifier
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Digital Object Identifier/http://dx.doi.org/10.11636/Record.2014.047
- Cited responsible party
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Publisher Geoscience Australia
Canberra Author Siqueira, A.
1 Author Arthur, C.
2 Author Woolf, M.
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- Name
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Record
- Issue identification
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2014/047
- Point of contact
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Custodian EGD
Owner Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
Owner Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Australia
Custodian Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
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- Geoscientific information
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- Not planned
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Product data repository: Various Formats
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Data Store directory containing the digital product files
Data Store directory containing one or more files, possibly in a variety of formats, accessible to Geoscience Australia staff only for internal purposes
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Earth Sciences
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GA Publication
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Record
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Pacific Nations
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Hazard Response
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Tropical Cylone
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Natural Hazards
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Published_External
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
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CC-BY
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4.0
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
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- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Distributor Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
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Download the Record (pdf)
Download the Record (pdf)
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pdf
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docx
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Unknown
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GA Publication
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Source data not available.
Metadata constraints
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Australian Government Security ClassificationSystem
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- 2018-11-01T00:00:00
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Role Organisation / Individual Name Details Point of contact Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia)
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GA Record
Alternative metadata reference
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Geoscience Australia - short identifier for metadata record with
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eCatId/79681
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https://ecat.ga.gov.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/fa94f524-6ad4-268b-e044-00144fdd4fa6
- Date info (Revision)
- 2018-04-20T06:10:26
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- 2014-05-30T00:00:00
Metadata standard
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AU/NZS ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
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ISO 19115-1:2014
Metadata standard
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ISO 19115-3
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Geoscience Australia Community Metadata Profile of ISO 19115-1:2014
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Version 2.0, September 2018
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https://pid.geoscience.gov.au/dataset/ga/122551