Authors / CoAuthors
Arthur, W.C. | Cechet, R.P.
Abstract
Cyclone Tracy is the only tropical cyclone to have devastated a major Australian population centre. Following the disaster (December 1974), the Australian Government implemented significantly improved building standards aimed at reducing the impact of a similar event in future. Geoscience Australia has developed models of severe wind risk for the Australian continent which utilise impact modelling, where we separately assess hazard, exposure and vulnerability in order to evaluate impact/damage. As often occurs in extreme natural disasters, meteorological instrumentation failed prior to the maximum wind gusts being recorded, so the spatial extent of the peak wind gusts were inferred from models constrained by estimates of the observed maximum peak wind gust. For this study, we utilise the wind vulnerability relationships determined in recent years for similar circa 1974 structures, and our knowledge of the type and specific location of structures at the time, to make the link between hazard and impact/damage. This spatial damage estimation (site specific values) is compared with the observed 1974 post-event survey damage in an effort to validate the model. As a result of Cyclone Tracy and the subsequent evacuation of 75% of the population, much more attention was given to building codes and other social aspects of disaster planning (i.e. tree planting). The likelihood of another severe cyclone impacting Darwin is real and on past experience likely within the next few decades. The study utilises both the exposure and vulnerability for 1974 and present-day residential building inventories, to evaluate the resulting effectiveness of the improved building codes. This provides a comparative impact assessment of the scenario were Cyclone Tracy to occur in the current cyclone season and evaluates the reduced vulnerability of the present building stock (compared to 1974). The study also assesses the effect that improved building standards have had on the Darwin community.
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document
eCat Id
69828
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- External Publication
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- risk assessment
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- AU-NT
- Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC)
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- Earth Sciences
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- Published_Internal
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2010-01-01T00:00:00
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